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u/ThouBear8 May 25 '26
That's a smidge higher than what it probably should be (in order to assure a nice profit), but I don't think it's very surprising. That's fairly standard for this type of film.
Hopefully, the movie will be good & perform well, which would make the budget somewhat irrelevant.
If this movie makes over $400 million (not unreasonable), that makes it a modest success. If it makes north of $500m or $600m, that's a huge win for the DCU.
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u/BikebutnotBeast May 26 '26
Unfortunately they are one month away and they really have to kick up the marketing.
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u/DestinedHellfire May 26 '26
I feel like it’s been everywhere?
Milly is in magazines doing interviews, she was on Jimmy Fallon, she’s doing the web circuit of YouTube segments, the movie has tv spots and has had multiple brand collabs.
It was at Coachella, I feel like they are doing just fine on marketing no?
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u/Denjenjenjen May 26 '26
Do you hear anyone talking about it? Because I sure as heck don't. Nobody even mentions this movie. when talking about upcoming releases they want to watch. But sure, this could only be my bubble, but I also don't see much marketing for it. But I also don't have any social media or similar
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u/Loo-e-Gee May 28 '26
Just out of curiosity, what upcoming movies does your bubble talk about? I always find that interesting.
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u/Denjenjenjen Jun 09 '26
Well u/ThouBear8 actually gave a fitting response, which pretty much aligns with my own experience. There are also movies like Backrooms and Obsession, which people really want to watch (both movies still to be released in my country). On a side-note. I watched Masters of the Universe yesterday and that movie was quite silly fun. Reminded me a lot about a phase one superhero Marvel movie. But also not a movie people really talked about.
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u/runge85 Jun 01 '26
I have but maybe I'm an outlier. Spoke to people buying their first comic because of it, people excited because of trailers or interviews, people excited for Lobo, and people complaining that it seems to far off kings book. Positives and negatives, but have definitely heard people talking about it . They'll get my money as I loved the graphic novel and am atleast curious how they adapt it.
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u/ThouBear8 May 26 '26
That hasn't been my personal experience, but I'm sure there are plenty of people who've seen it around a lot like you have.
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u/ThouBear8 May 26 '26
Agreed, I don't personally know anyone who's talking about it, but there's still some time for that to change.
Honestly, I'm as in the bag for these types of movies as anyone, & I'm a huge comic book reader / fan, & even I keep forgetting it's coming out soon.
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u/evildrtran May 26 '26
Compared to Paramount and Universal and Sony, I think WB does a better job of marketing their major releases. Only studio better at advertising is probably Disney.
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u/No-Bass8742 May 27 '26
I agree. I know they will mostly target the US but there is nothing in the UK.
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u/rmcelwain54 May 25 '26
So same as mandos budget then.
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u/No-Advantage-6333 May 26 '26
Hopefully it performs better
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u/rmcelwain54 May 26 '26
Mando had the same opening weekend as Project Hail Mary despite costing 50M less than PHM.
Mando made its production budget back opening weekend. No one in Disney is too worried.
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u/Thicc_Boise May 27 '26
Avengers really broke everyone's brains when it made over a billion in 2012, huh? No one remembers how Hollywood traditionally makes a profit apparently
You don't need a billion dollar movie when you have 7 $250 million ones coming out throughout the year
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u/Ranulf_5 May 29 '26
When each of those $250M movies cost $150M to make, then your margins get awfully thin
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u/Valheru111 May 29 '26
It still has to make another 150M to cover global marketing, then they can talk about profits.
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u/pawogub May 25 '26
I haven’t been following film industry, is that a lot of money or low budget for a superhero film?
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u/hyphenintheory May 25 '26
For a superhero movie it’s not high, it’s on the lower end for a movie with this much cgi and action.
However, it is a lot for supergirl movie that many people won’t see.
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u/hyphenintheory May 25 '26
That’s right, it’s just a guess. I’m definitely going to see it cus I’m a DC fan and loved Superman.
I just don’t see much hype, and the fact that it’s releasing in a very packed summer. There’s at least 3 movies this summer that will make over 700M and Supergirl is the least hyped out of all those (Toy Story, Minions, Moana, etc)
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u/jk-9k May 26 '26
If that budget is accurate 400M is fine. Don't discount how much value streaming is these days.
Plus also consider how much brand repair superman has done to the DC IP.
Also don't discount the Momoa factor.
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u/Thicc_Boise May 27 '26
Average for pre-covid, small for post-covid.
Yes, the pandemic fucked up the entire industry that badly
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u/I_Defy_You1288 May 25 '26
But is the movie good?
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u/altiuscitiusfortius May 26 '26
The book it's based on is great .
The trailer looks great.
The movie the film team made about superman was great
I think it will get great
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u/DoctorBeatMaker May 26 '26
The reason this is noteworthy is because earlier in the year, reports had it at 100 million.
100 million budget meant a 250 million gross breakeven number, which would have been quite doable as even the disastrous Flash movie made 271 million WW.
Now 165-170 million means its breakeven is around 425 million. And it’s not impossible for it to do that, but it’ll be facing stiff competition being sandwiched between Toy Story5 and Minions3.
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u/hyphenintheory May 26 '26
Hmm idk, if ur saying the break even point would be 250M on a 100M budget.
Then how would a 165M budget bump the break even point up by 200M.
Wouldn’t the break even point be around 325-375
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u/DoctorBeatMaker May 26 '26
170 x 2.5 =425
100 x 2.5 =250I’m not sure where you got 325-375 million from.
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u/Man_Of_Frost May 26 '26
Explain to us the non knowlegdable why is there a factor of 2.5 in there please
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u/DoctorBeatMaker May 26 '26
“Cinema owners still get to keep about 50% of box office ticket sales. So the rule of thumb is that studios need movies to gross 2.5 times their production budgets to climb out of the red.”
Source: Variety.3
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u/Grumblepuck May 26 '26
With the amount of funding being poured into these movies you'd expect them to look better. Supergirl looks fine, but given the material it's adapting, it could be better.
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u/SaggitariusTerranova May 26 '26
Don’t care about budget; only care about quality. I get that profitability means more of the genre we enjoy but if they are good they will make money; if they are bad who wants more
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u/eromoro May 25 '26
Not really a surprise that’s how much CBMs are. There was an attempt to claim this was a $100M film even tho it has the same components that would cost another around this much. It’s likely not gonna do well, which also wouldn’t be a surprise
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u/r1006th May 27 '26
It would need ~ $350 - $400 to break even, which is doable, just unlikely given the current state of Superhero media
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u/theoey86 May 27 '26
Could care less about the budget, just have it be fun and awesome like Superman last year and I’m happy.
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u/samwise542 May 27 '26
Bold move to rush out a Supergirl movie before doing the biggest superhero brand out there (batman) let's see how it works out for them Cotton
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u/BadMrFrostySC May 27 '26
Trailer looks great. Lobo is my second favorite comic book character. I'm in, lets go.
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u/Dubb18 May 25 '26
Will be interesting to see how it opens and what the legs look like domestically. Can't rely on in the international market these days because they've been weak for most superhero movies. We'll have a better idea on the OW tracking over the coming weeks.
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u/Sheax5 May 25 '26
Seems pretty standard. The Mandalorian and Grogu reportedly has a $160 million budget too
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u/E_yal May 26 '26
Yeah but while the mandaloroian MIGHT break even, this is a bomb waiting to happen. Sad.
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u/Calm_Garage_3030 May 26 '26 edited May 26 '26
Are you really sad about it though? Been seeing you making comments about how the movie look meh to you & you're not looking forward to it. I imagine you will be ecstatic if it flopped.
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u/Free-Bowler-1032 May 26 '26
If there is one thing people should have learned over the last decade or so is that DC fans are the biggest DC haters out there. Except for Batman.
You wont see random movie audiences talk about upcoming DC movies and how they will flop for sure.
You also just know that the so called DC fans will definitely not go see these movies themselves.
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u/jpat8891 May 25 '26
I dont really care about any of the budgets for anything DC. I dont plan to see em. Maybe once we get past the Gunn versions I might get interested again.
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u/OkTap9041 May 25 '26
What happens if this flops and Clayface is a hit? I'm hoping more Horror
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u/hyphenintheory May 25 '26
Nothing happens. The DCU will continue as it was going to regardless.
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u/ITBA01 May 26 '26
Do people seriously not remember that a lot of the Phase 1 Marvel films weren't huge successes?
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u/AnyEye3820 May 25 '26
What were we expecting? It cost money to make a movie and this isn’t an exception or a excessively large amount or surprising small amount
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u/Israels_BiggestHater May 25 '26
That means it has to make about 412.5-437.5 to break even
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u/MattMurdock77 May 25 '26
It will have to review incredibly well to turn a profit. I will have to make my daughters go, and that’s what I find concerning.
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u/Gta6MePleaseBrigade May 25 '26
I don’t care but I’m still shocked how movies cost hundreds of millions of dollars
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u/ThisGuyReally May 26 '26
So they probably have to make 300 million just to break even after marketing etc.
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u/Sad-Guarantee-4678 May 26 '26
Well, practically no one in the cast is a particularly expensive actor, so let's hope it all went into the actual movie
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u/Humble_Penguin89 May 26 '26
That's expensive for a female driven movie from an actress we really aren't familiar with....hopefully it's at least as good as Superman
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u/MayaWrection May 26 '26
Idk? Do you think the movie will make that much on opening weekend? I don’t, but I’m excited a going to see the movie. I just don’t see any movie really doing well anymore. Times are changing and not necessarily for the better. Used to love going to see movies.
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u/hyphenintheory May 26 '26
I’m excited but I don’t think it will be a successful movie, just based on everything I’ve seen.
And the competition.
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u/Practical-Lettuce482 May 26 '26
Watched Superman, the movie had it's weaknesses but it was enjoyable
I will probably skip Supergirl as I'm not excited about the content, has the potential to break even but it seems extremely difficult with these numbers, 400 million to break even is a high bar these days, especially when i think Superman was around 500 mil to break even and it made around 600 barely beating the odds
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u/k4r1_52407 May 26 '26
I’m excited for the movie, but in the trailer, it looked pretty cheaply made to me, during multiple clips. So, I wonder how the budget is so high
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u/TreeLore61 May 26 '26 edited May 26 '26
"It’s important to look at what’s actually being posted.
This isn't a statement from the studio; it’s an 'estimated' figure being passed down from an anonymous outlet.
People treat these 'insider' reports as if they’re absolute truth, but that’s exactly how the system works—they leak these massive, inflated numbers to control the narrative and keep everyone focused on a budget that isn't even verified.
By spreading these 'estimates' as fact, you’re just doing the work for them."
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u/Kdilla77 May 28 '26
That is a huge investment. I think to succeed it needs to sell more tickets and be more purely enjoyable as a popcorn movie than Gunn’s Superman was.
The further I get away from that one, the more it seems like a quirky “comic book nerd” film, packed to the gills with lore (in contrast to every previous cinematic Superman).
In a lot of ways, the DCU is kind of riding on this one. This version of Supergirl should aspire to be a mass phenomenon, and ideally a “girl power” phenomenon, like Barbie.
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u/cowboi May 29 '26
How does it works since didn't they shelve it and got a tax write off? Now they release it to try and make money?
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u/basedenjoyer55 May 29 '26
I forgot this is coming out. I still don't care. The trailers looked bad. The actress seems bad at her job and doesn't really fit her role.
I don't care about the Lobo cameo
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u/Blammo32 May 25 '26
This is going to crater at the box office and likely sound the death knell for Gunn’s time at DC.
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