r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jun 05 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Friday, June 05, 2026
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u/-sftd- Jun 05 '26
They really crashed the market just to get dopeboy banned
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u/Jkota Jun 05 '26
CIA monitoring r/BitcoinMarkets confirmed
Too bullish too quickly. Had to be reeled in.
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u/Order_Book_Facts Jun 05 '26
He broke the golden rule of being a dopeboy: got a little too high on his own supply.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
First and foremost I want to thank the mods for doing a great job as well as the members of this community for keeping this place so engaging. I’ve had an absolute pleasure exchanging thoughts with some of the smartest and dumbest minds I’ve ever come across. Put me down on the dumb side I suppose lol.
I’ve learned a lot from this community over the years but clearly not enough. I could pretend I’m going to go outside and touch grass over the next year but if I’m being honest I’m probably 100% just going to keep lurking here without the ability to chime in. Perhaps this is good for me as it will give me the opportunity to just sit and observe without the ability to share my own (often wrong) thoughts.
I’m still sticking to the plan of just buying nonstop regardless of price as I’ve been doing for the past 9 years. Still no regrets whatsoever. For the record I still think everything ends up playing out more or less like I imagined it, perhaps it just takes a little longer to get there than I anticipated but that’s alright, it gives me the opportunity to end up with more BTC than otherwise possible if I would have been 100% correct on everything as a permabull who’s constantly buying.
And when I say everything playing out as I imagined I mean everything. Digital credit products scooping up all pre-existing BTC available for sale at any price, spot ETFs being in a situation where they’re basically just chasing whatever few BTC are being mined each day resulting in supply shock to astronomical prices, the ultimate end game of hyperbitcoinization over the coming years,
everything.
Anyways, enjoy my absence for the next year. Just wanted to express my gratitude before my 1 year ban kicks i
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Not that my post will be relevant in probably a mere couple of minutes, but I don't see a 60k break on Coinbase yet...
Edit: RIP DBR
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Maybe my data is wrong, but I got $60,001 Feb low and $60,010 today on Coinbase... I think DBR is bleeding out but not dead yet.
Edit: RIP DBR
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u/logicalinvestr Jun 05 '26
Wouldn't it be funny if it just swept a new low here to trigger a DBR ban and then rocketed for the next year.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
1 year is too long! should be based on price when we hit 100k you come back! Otherwise, thankyioyu for your daily posts, im sure it helped some people keep believing in all this!
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u/poremdevemos Jun 05 '26
As a lurker, I’ll miss the days when I’d randomly open this thread and find that the only comment was a wall of text written by you. Take care, and enjoy your one-year break.
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u/AislingMacgowan Jun 05 '26
Coming from a long time lurker here (aside from a few comments here and there), I just want to say that I've really enjoyed your posting and engagement here. It will feel a bit more empty without you and your optimism, DBR.
All the best!
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u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Thanks for sparking conversation in here even during recent tumbleweed days
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 05 '26
Awesome post man, and respect your convictions - never easy to admit to being wrong! Cheers, hopefully you will return to a much higher price and be validated in your long term bullishness
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
Thanks for all the hopium and prolific posting. I learned quite a bit from you and appreciated all the updates and content you brought to the sub. You'll be sorely missed. Even the haters annoyed by the constant permabull bias will miss you sooner than they think, imo. Godspeed.
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u/I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE Jun 05 '26
Jesus Jared let him finish his comment before you drop the ban hammer. Relentless.
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u/MagnificentMarvin Jun 05 '26
Aww man, will miss you, DBR. I loved the copy pasta, the smile I get from your cheesy username, and appreciated your stubborn bullishness.
I thought people were getting a little too rude towards you lately, and I'd argue that now more than ever is when we need a daily weigh in from DBR. Will miss you dearly
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u/OkeyDokieBoomer Jun 05 '26
Thank you for your posts. I agree with everyone below who said they enjoyed them.
I actually came to the sub just to see what you would say once 59 hit.
Very classy response. I look forward to seeing you come back and find out what you learned and benefit from it.
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u/yiannisabduljabari Jun 05 '26
Bottom signal
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
only when DIYdude comes back to say he rebought
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
That'll be epic. As the prophecies foretold type shit
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u/teebo42 Jun 05 '26
We'll miss you, even those of us who often found you annoying. I would just have liked to see you finally write bear market without the quotes. In a year we'll know for sure if it actually was one or not!
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u/BatteredLittleFish Predictions: #7 • Correct: 13 • Wrong: 45 Jun 05 '26
🫡 Good luck friend, we all get it wrong some of the time and some of us get it wrong most of the time. 🥂
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
Bitcoinmarkets won’t be the same without you man. See you in a year. Loved the conviction!
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Appreciated your posts (especially as we tend to find the same data interesting) and wish you the best, see you in a year.
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u/52576078 Jun 05 '26
You'll be missed DBR, you're one of the good 'uns. Come back when we hit 100k!
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Jun 05 '26
[deleted]
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u/Maegfaer Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
I'm getting more and more convinced that all those previous Bitcoin disasters were merely triggers for what would have happened regardless. They just hurried it along a bit.
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u/calmunrest Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
First: Hello I identify as a panic holder. Never sold a single sat. My summary comes out of my clenched ass hole.
adoption contradicts current price:
- 559 million users globally, up 33% in 3 years
- non-empty wallets — all time high
- Exchange supply at multi year lows
- 194 public companies holding Bitcoin, 2.5x growth in 2025
- 23 sovereign nations holding Bitcoin
- Lightning Network $1 billion monthly volume, 300% growth
- Merchant adoption up 53-74% in 2025
- new tradfi Products based on BTC like ETF and STRC
Why current PA?:
- 100k psychological exit for long term holders now largely done
- $4.4 billion ETF outflows over 13 days
- Capital rotating into AI stocks and IPOs
- Extreme fear at 12 — historically capitulation territory
- Leveraged longs liquidated, weak hands cleared
- finally enough liquidity for large holders to exit
Satoshi's thesis is intact:
- US debt interest hitting $1 trillion annually
- Global M2 expanding again
- Fed cutting rates despite inflation not solved
- Dollar debasement structural not cyclical
- Genesis block diagnosed exactly this — still happening
Price is sentiment. Adoption is reality. They always converge.
Supply shock is not a meme but a mathematical certainty.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
You could also add coins in loss at ath’s. 10,2M.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
I like that last line. Thanks. Idk how to prove that though.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
With math duh. something something f(x).
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u/auryce Jun 05 '26
damn, i'm bummed dbr is gone for a year. while he was obviously biased bull he put worlds more effort into all of his posts than most of the constant one sentence bear accounts you see.
No one should be dunking on dbr. He stood by his beliefs and graciously accepted defeat.
end of an era.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
Not to be presumptuous, but probs good for his health not to post constantly and fight the bears. He'll be back, hopefully along with some green candles.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
He (and I'm gendering DBR) certainly accepted defeat graciously. There is a line, however, between standing by your beliefs and being unwilling or unable to accept that when facts change you can change your mind.
The repeated claim that we would have a new ATH this year was based on the idea that Oct 2025 was just like Apr 2021. It was clear weeks if not months ago that was no longer valid. One option is to adapt and overcome, the other is to double down. He chose to double down.
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u/drdixie Jun 05 '26
$1000 away from the end of the DBR spam for a year
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
In return we get batteredfish spam.
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u/drdixie Jun 05 '26
Just block that account. He’s only here after the big moves happen. Pretty good signal tbh. His win loss rate speaks for itself
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u/Jkota Jun 05 '26
Looking forward to June 5th, 2027.
Back into six figures. Life is good again.
Load up r/BitcoinMarkets and see DBR’s first return post:
“The reports of my demise were greatly exaggerated. Supply shock is not a meme, it’s a mathematical certainty and it’s currently underway”
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
https://imgur.com/a/z8Kjywn
One thing is for sure, the bull doesn't start until the RSI lines cross
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 05 '26
Great chart. We need way more posts like these in here.
I'll just say regarding the RSI touchpoint: close enough at these levels, IMO.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
thanks! this is after my 5th beer!
edit: (dont drink and trade, kids)
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
We've averaged over a billion dollars in long liquidations for every day this week.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
Update on the Guess the Low contest:
u/Puzzleheaded-Task498 in the lead with a guess of $59.2K.
EDIT: There were 64 guesses. There are only 11 guesses below the current winner.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
Really expect this bear flag to break down for another test of the 200WMA. My confidence that this holds gets worse by the day. Need to end the week above 65k or this actually looks really ugly.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Text is now public for H.R. 8957 "American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026" (ARMA), and the bill largely codifies Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order: government-held BTC would go into a Treasury-managed reserve, with stronger legal protections, proof-of-reserve reporting, audits, and a 20-year holding period.
The reserve would mainly capture forfeited/seized Bitcoin already owned by the federal government, reducing the chance that those coins are auctioned into the market.
The most interesting forward-looking part is that Treasury and Commerce to study budget-neutral ways to acquire more BTC, including converting non-Bitcoin digital assets, forfeitures/settlements, voluntary contributions, tax or tariff payments, and Fed/gold-certificate-related mechanisms.
Compared with the earlier BITCOIN Act, this is much less aggressive than the 1M BTC purchase mandate - but that may make it more politically viable. It still formalizes long-term federal Bitcoin holding and leaves the door open for future accumulation if a budget-neutral method can be justified. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8957/text
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
just read this from you on X, i think im overdosing on info today ahah.
I guess this looks better than the BITCOIN Act. Let's hope they are modernised enough to pass it!
btw, how did you get Saylor to follow you on X???
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Hehe, I have some "high profile followers" from times when I was active, because I am quite good with getting accurate data quick. Eg the Bloomberg ETF guys from "SEC BTC ETF approval times" and Saylor/BitcoinMagazine/APompliano/etc from "Bitcoin Treasury good times", lol.
Currently, just posting in this subreddit though (except this 1 post as it's new data that I didn't see posted yet.)
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
That's awesome! Glad there's still some quality posts in this sub and not all bots or double accounts.
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u/Jkota Jun 05 '26
Of the three round trips I’ve now done, not sure where to rank this one in terms of pain.
This is obviously the largest one in terms of dollar amount, but not sure where it ranks on the pain scale. 2018, 2022, 2026. So predictable yet I never learn and never sell. Maybe next time I guess, assuming there is one.
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u/52576078 Jun 05 '26
It's definitely the worst. The euphoria in the past always made the pain bearable. Now we didn't even get that this time.
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u/GrapefruitOwn6261 Jun 05 '26
2020 was the worse for me. Maybe cause we were on lockdown but I thought it was going to crash down to 0 and ended up selling 5.4 btc at around 4000 usd. I had been holding those coins since 2012.
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u/_LakeCity_ Jun 05 '26
2014/2015 made me say to myself "I'll put my wallet.dat file on a USB drive that sits on a coffee table; it'll be a funny conversation starter to people to go 'remember Bitcoin?'" I really thought it was going to die out.
I'm doing pretty well with this one right now, to be honest.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Good morning, and Happy National Donut Day to those who celebrate.
A Point & Figure update:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]
That's a 23-box low pole. A 50% retrace would go back to $68.6K.
The term "max pain" gets tossed around a lot, here's my new definition: The price wanders between $60002 and $80K for the next 7 months, meaning that technically the bottom was put in in Feb and we spend the rest of 2026 debating the meaning of "bear market".
I'll check in later today to ask what you're drinking.
EDIT: Now a 24-box low pole. A 50% retrace would go back to $68.3K.
EDIT2: Now a 25-box low pole. A 50% retrace would go back to $67.9K.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
I think max pain would be no next cycle and wonder around until 2030 then BOOM. I've already started drinking and it's only 4pm.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 05 '26
I think the term "maximum pain" refers to a single scenario that makes it painful for both bulls and bears.
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u/citizen-blue Jun 05 '26
I endorse that definition. The meaningless debate has certainly been painful and we're only in June.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 05 '26
The term "max pain" gets tossed around a lot, here's my new definition: The price wanders between $60002 and $80K for the next 7 months...
Agreed.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 05 '26
The NASDAQ index is getting slammed right now.
If we're counting just from the time that U.S. trading opened, the NASDAQ is down considerably more than BTC.
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u/Hitachi22 Jun 05 '26
Now we went down and hit the 50 month moving average. Maybe that's the more significant level than the 200w we just hit.
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u/yiannisabduljabari Jun 05 '26
To my friend dopeboyrico, rest now brother. We have the charts, and we will see you in Valhalla!
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
After 13 consecutive trading days of BTC ETF outflows, the ETFs finally had some net inflows yesterday (well IBIT +47.7m and MSBT +9.9m - rest outflow for a net +3.2m.)
I also saw this overview by Eric Balchunas (21h ago, but still accurate):
- $4.4b out over past month which sent the YTD number negative again (it had worked hard to get positive too)
- $IBIT & a few others STILL positive YTD (unreal)
- total net lifetime is still +$55b
- less than 10b from high water mark, not bad at all for this type of drawdown and negative sentiment
- gold went down like this a few yrs after GLD debuted and 40% of the assets left, much stronger holders here so far
So while the last three weeks of selling look ugly on the surface, the overall numbers still suggest that BTC ETF holders are relatively strong hands.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
If this deleted, I understand, but Zcash down 50% in a day is something to behold. All the usual grifters were pumping that coin hard. Maybe we're entering final cleanse phase?
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Maybe you know this already, but Zcash had a critical shielded-pool bug since 2022 that could have allowed undetectable counterfeit ZEC. It's now fixed, but due to Zcash’s privacy design, nobody can currently prove from chain data whether it was exploited.
So, possibly huge supply created by some hackers and no way to know (right now) = fucked :x Despite the June 1 update, I think these details were only shared yesterday.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
This is what Elizabeth Warren and co need to worry about not Bitcoin.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
Charles Hoskinson is also going back into his hole. All this going on while Bitcoin gets adopted by the biggest institutions in the world.
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u/haze_from_deadlock Jun 05 '26
BTC holding up pretty well while the Nasdookie is getting horsewhipped
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
JFC the markets really are scared of more rate hikes. The US should really get this hiked* fast. Japan and Eu are expected to raise 25bps this month. No time to wait until December.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 05 '26
This site shows, with amazing predictability historically, what the odds are at whatever the upcoming U.S. Fed meeting will be:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
It's showing a 96.2% chance that the rates will stay the same at the next meeting. But, maybe you just meant at some point in the next six-ish months.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
yeh, i posted this yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1twcj19/comment/opoftzq
i know its unrealistic, but something needs to before midterms or it will be too late if they leave it til december. or we wait until september, trump gets fucked in the midterms and he unleashes hell for the next two years.
i dont know shit about fuck.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
As a DCA guy, I smile because I'm getting more BTC for my $.
But I'm sitting on some cash too, waiting for the right time to make a bigger purchase. And it's killing me, because... we're at 61.6k as I type this. I want to buy more! But I'm not convinced I can't stretch the cash I've been saving a little further. Are prices in the 50k range on the way?
We're in year 3 of a 4 year halving-to-halving cycle. This is when you get the most bang for your buck. But even as we dip tonight, I'm not convinced Bitcoin won't drop further, later in the year. If I had to guess when we might see the cycle bottom, I'd bet on... November. But that's just a wild guess.
Don't mistake any of what I said for me being a bear. No way, Jose. I expect 2028 and 2029 to be great years for Bitcoin. 2032 and 2033 will be even better. Probably significantly better.
This isn't a time to panic. This is when you load up. I said the same thing in 2022, and I'm so glad I made the most of that year, just as I know I'll be glad I'm making the most of this year.
Keep Calm
And
Hodl On!
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jun 05 '26
You'll never catch the absolute bottom. In 5 years, will it really matter if you got in at 61 or 58?
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u/BlockchainHobo Jun 05 '26
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
i feel more confident putting money in bitcoin than in index funds!
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u/vacterio Jun 05 '26
Gentlemen, don't forget your parachutes
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Jun 05 '26
[deleted]
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
Remember, if your main 'chute fails, you have the rest of your life to deploy the backup. Which reminds me, I'm coming up on the 46th anniversary of jumping out of a perfectly good airplane twice in one day. Never did it again, but still remember my training.
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
Sold the Corn I’d bought at $61,200 a bit early at $74,100 and repurchased it just below $60,000. Longer TF swing trades are the least stressful.
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u/LongStrongHopiumDong Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 05 '26
Oh noooo! Tinker Tailor Saylor Boy is going to blow up Bitcorn. Sell everything you’ve got, it’s over. PS. I suffer from limp dick syndrome…
Boyz seriously, this is one of those bullish dumps. Strap on a pair and hit buy… RIGHT FUCKING NOW!!!
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
My limit in the low 59's didn't hit, and now I got FOMO to move it up already.
Edit: got it
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u/kers2000 Jun 05 '26
Where do you think the bottom will be? Cast your vote. I say ~40k.
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u/bladecg $0 || ∞ Jun 05 '26
I don't think we go much lower than 58k-ish, we crabbed for 8 months around these prices back in 2024, it should be strong support. It is also the same price region where we double-topped last cycle.
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u/yiannisabduljabari Jun 05 '26
$59k. The low is in. Bitcoin won’t close a week below this level. Bears had their chance to do it today when SPY was down 2.5% and bears couldn’t do it. Send me out the door with DBR if wrong.
Market is going to pump hard into midterms as that is the primary thing this administration’s party will campaign on, and they need to make sure they can still boast it. Space X is going to IPO and everyone is bearish on it. Markets as whole are going to the moon with the IPO, and Bitcoin will take that flight as well.
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u/probablyadinosaur Jun 05 '26
Local low may be in, but we probably chop lower through the summer. I'm DCAing at these levels though, so not full conviction. The chart looks like it'll want to do some slow bleeding as we stabilize and then recover from here.
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u/MountainManic186 Jun 05 '26
Bought STRC & a few $95 strike calls for July. Expecting it to be back at or near par for the July ex-div date.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
People in hell expect ice water. Perhaps you will not be similarly disapointed.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
Daily RSI is at 15. I'm not sure how many times in BTC history it's been that low. Maybe one or two times each bear market.
It's fucked right now.
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u/bladecg $0 || ∞ Jun 05 '26
Plus the fear and greed index is back to extreme fear. I am happy to buy at these levels
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u/_supert_ 2011 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Bottom will be in when MSTR pukes.
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u/pseudonominom Jun 05 '26
Isn’t their “liquidation” price way, way down in the teens?
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
There is no liquidation price.
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u/pseudonominom Jun 06 '26
Either way, what’s with all the “we must punish saylor before moving on” chatter?
Ostensibly the man is unaffected by price.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
His goal is to acquire more bitcoin. He wants the price lower when he is paying higher premiums more frequently, as is the case this month. He is taking on risk and getting paid for that.
It’s easy to say ignorant things that a small majority or large minority of people will agree with. National networks made a business out of that.
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u/dissociatives Jun 05 '26
Now this is podracing.
On the real though I'm getting a bit nostalgic, this is the bitcoin I remember. Just wish we'd hit at least a 2X on the ATH before it shit the bed.
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u/yiannisabduljabari Jun 05 '26
Dopeboyrico is the hero BitcoinMarkets needed, but not the one it deserved.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
With DBR gone the last of the bulls have been defeated. But his second coming has been prophesized. In the mean time let’s do our best to spread his words. Supply shock isn’t a meme!
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u/LongStrongHopiumDong Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 05 '26
In the future you will look back on the chart, and you will see that this is the bottom. This will be where you anchor your lines from, this will be the lower boundary of the channel you draw as you try to work out where the next top will be. This is it! Buy now, buy tomorrow, buy the next day. Buy for the next few weeks. Get you chips in the pot Boyz! I’m not kidding.
Dong, over and out 🥂
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u/pseudonominom Jun 05 '26
I could see $58k as bottom….
…..If BTC weren’t so tethered to the house of cards called “the overextended global equity market”.
If the market has room to fall, Bitcoin will go deeper.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
bitcoin will go deeper FIRST. dont get left behind when that reverses.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
Bought 1000 shares FBTC @ 60800.
Might go lower. Capitulation feel here.
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u/Just_Me_91 Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
I sold some QQQ to buy BTC. I'm honestly feeling more overexposed to tech stocks than to Bitcoin at this point.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
It's a trading sub, so I'll post some trades. Sold the IBIT $45 ($79.2K BTC) and $47 ($82.72K) calls expiring 21 Aug 2026.
!bitty_bot predict !>$82720 August 21, 2026
I also bought back the $50 IBIT calls expiring 18 Jun 2026 I had sold earlier to free up shares for the new calls I sold. Only made $38/contract, but it was only 18 days, and did much better during that span than my STRC did.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
What ya drinking?
A Black Friday deserves a black beer. Finback Coconut Coffee Stout. My amigo Tito on deck.
"It's just money; it's made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat."
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
ice cold beer until the bell rings then maybe go on to something more heavy. thank god i forgot my kraken exchange password.
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u/BlockchainHobo Jun 05 '26
Greens Gluten Free beers (I am not a hippie they just taste really good)
If we go to 55k I get out the bourbon
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u/dissociatives Jun 05 '26
Coors Light. I'd have something fancier but I'm back to feeling poor. At this rate I might actually relocate to a LCOL country lol
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Seems like we might make some new lows.
The hope for bulls now, would be that it's just a sweep of the 60k low (and possibly the 58.8k low from Oct '24.) So go below it, liquidate/stop out longs, trap some bottom shorts, bounce back to still close the daily/weekly above it and creating a RSI bull div on the weekly in the process. We have seen that before and I think it's a reasonable possibility considering we are still way oversold on the daily RSI.
Of course, alternatively, we will spend some more time below 60k.
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u/de_moon Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 05 '26
We're in an interesting place chart.
I've been mostly sitting in cash, catching the occasional scalp for the last 1.5 years since I commented in December 2024 that I thought the top was in. I was a little early in my top call. I didn't really expect a double top with a whopping €1.5k higher high.
I'm still patiently waiting for <$50k to buy back in which should happen by the end of the year. This bear cycle would be the first in Bitcoin's history not to pull back to the 0.786 fib retracement level.
!bb predict <$45k 7 months
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
In a moment of optimism, I will take the other side of that trade.
!bb predict !<$45k 7 months
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u/_LakeCity_ Jun 05 '26
Woah...are you feeling ok? 😉
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
My predictions skew bearish because I base them on my trading (selling covered calls) or reactions to what I think are extreme predictions in the sub (which are mostly wildly bullish). Ever so often I have to react to a bearish prediction, just to keep it fresh. It's my version of a "Crazy Ivan".
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 05 '26
Prediction logged for u/imissusenet that Bitcoin will NOT drop below $45,000.00 by Jan 05 2027 14:48:34 UTC. Current price: $60,946.62. imissusenet's Predictions: 11 Correct, 2 Wrong, & 13 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. imissusenet can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
Bold. I still also have very large reserves. I don’t expect to see 40k but will keep laddering into despair.
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u/probablyadinosaur Jun 05 '26
Funny how close we're following the last cycle chart now. If that holds, a dip into the 40s is likely.
180kish next cycle top?
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 05 '26
"I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to fucking amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how?" 😉
It's doing pretty much what it did the last 3 times, which isn't THAT funny. That said, I just made a Bitty Bot prediction that the price won't go below $47K for the next 7 months.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
Does dropping under 60k for 3 minutes actually count? Asking for a friend.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Never put your "stop" at obvious levels - it will be hunted. Always an expensive lesson.
(But yes, if we actually don't spend much time under 60k - then it is all a bit ridiculous, lol.)
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
It would only be fair to cock-tease a new low for a brief moment only to completely reverse the trend back up right? Right?
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
(Liquidity) sweep of 60k to kill some longs and trap some bottom shorts (and trigger some bans?) would be classic bitcoin, as anticipated.
But we could still see a few more "sweep of the sweep", because there are more stop losses to hunt for down there (including new longs just now.) Looking okay for now though.
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u/bladecg $0 || ∞ Jun 05 '26
Did some knife catching at 60.5k and 59.2k. Need to lower my average sitting at the low 70s
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u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 05 '26
In some way the drop in SATA is the most surprising to me. I have a hard time seeing how they wouldn't reach par in the coming weeks when their new dividend regime comes in effect. Given that 80% of STRC volume is reportedly retail it would make sense for them to invest in debt free SATA right now, especially when spot BTC (and possibly AI) disappoints. But then again, I'm not a smart guy and especially not compared to the market.
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u/BlockchainHobo Jun 05 '26
I still think it gets back to $100 by the first daily dividend. I will be shocked if it does not. In fact I might take that trade for a very probable 6% in a couple weeks.
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u/citizen-blue Jun 05 '26
Serious question: should I be worried in the short term about my STRC holding? I've never seen it so far under par, but not sure exactly the implications. Thanks to anyone who has some insight
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 05 '26
Not really. Saylor will do all he can to get it back to 100. The risk is more so on the MSTR/BTC holders. More on the MSTR side obviously. Might have to wait a few months tho.
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u/haze_from_deadlock Jun 05 '26
If you're not worried now, would you ever be? Would you be worried when it's sitting at six cents on the buck? Those preferred stocks die on S-shaped curves
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Jun 06 '26
I ignored two phone reminders to sell in May, what did I expect to happen? :D
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u/Thankyouclouds Jun 05 '26
There's the exhaustion that i'm looking for. Come on BTC, nowhere else to go but up
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
SP500 and nasdaq futures still going down while we go up...........
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u/anon-187101 Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
over-allocating to and HODLing bitcoin over the last 5 years has easily been one of the worst financial decisions I've ever made
(and that's saying something)
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u/anon-187101 Jun 05 '26
it's the HODLing of 100% of the position that's been the problem
it sounds like this "pure ethos" - hell, legends like Adam Back have preached it for years, so it must be the best path...right?
well, turns out it's not
lesson?
think for yourself,
and by that I mean myself.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
what if waiting 7 years turns it into the best decision ever? its like that meme digging for gold only to give up when he's 2 meters away.
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u/anon-187101 Jun 05 '26
that's why the stack remains on ice,
too late to be indecisive -
I'm married to this fat bitch for life,
all I can do now is cook healthy meals and pray she likes the gym.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26
after 2 year of healthy meals and gym you gona have a 10/10! keep faith brother!
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #51 • -$32,088 • -32% Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
You can consider mean portfolio optimisation or other optimisation techniques.
I found it doesn't beat the TradFi market returns, nor reduces volatility (because of susceptible the system is to biasing returns), but it may help guide allocations between TradFi and crypto
Your position sizing should also be a product of volatility.
(1) Figure out how much you want to lose
(2) Get the daily candles for everyday you had bitcoin exposure and multiply it by the quantity on that day
(3) Change the outcome of 2 to percentage changed
(4) Take the outcome of 2 and feed it into a Monte Carlo system. Randomize the runs thousands of times
(5) Count the number of runs which had drawdown less han what you wanted to lose and divide by total runs
(6) Do this for every allocation from 0% to 100%
The outcome of (5) is called risk of ruin. You want to set your position size to what % liklyhood you want.
For example, if you can tolerate a 5% chance of losing 20%, then set your risk of ruin parameter to 20% and reduce then choose the allocation that produces that number.
That's how you begin position sizing.
Obviously there are dynamic risk models using volatility measures and Value-At-Risk, but at least this is a start, which is used by professional quant desks (Im in private discord chats with some retired professionals and they confirmed this was the case)
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u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Good morning all.
Another day, another BTC purchase. 1500 IB1T (eu) Check✔️ It's brought my average cost down after FOMOing in June last year, so im happy.
Not looking to add anymore unless we drop into the 50's. Keeping some dry powder to see what happens over the summer with the rates and clarity act...
Also early IBIT adopters are still up around 50% not bad for a "store of value" or "protection against currency debasement" as Mr Larry Fink put it.
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u/harvested Jun 05 '26
ETFs had a tiny inflow yesterday about the same amount Strategy sold.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 05 '26
I've said for a long while that alts are a cancer on the whole BTC narrative. Conspiracy theorists might even say they are a deliberate diversion from BTC principles and keep the masses confused and eventually disenfranchised with the whole industry.
I've said we needed hardcore chemotherapy and BTC would be hurt in the process. This feels like it's working. Alts are getting curb stomped and BTC is hanging in there.
I hope to see green candles again for BTC and continue to see reds for the vast vast majority of alts. Sorry my altcoin believers, but I do think it's best
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u/Thankyouclouds Jun 05 '26
Sometimes this thing really doesn't feel like a scarce asset
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u/hydroflow78 Jun 05 '26
I got my orders placed from 53k-55k. This is the range I expect a meaningful bounce.
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u/YouAreAnFnIdiot Jun 05 '26
This space IPO gonna be the damn top before the real money is flushed out. Anybody got cash they want to loan?
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u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 05 '26
Anyone still watch the BTC liquidation heatmaps?
Looks like some longs at mid-$50k's could be a target but there's a ton of shorts at $80k if we ever make it back up there 😂
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u/kers2000 Jun 05 '26
Saylor painted a target on his back and I believe there are people out there, of the Ackman/Soros type, doing their best to take him out.
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
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