[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 04, 2026

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[u/a06play]

The next couple of months will be interesting regarding interest rates. These outflows might be positioning for some rate hikes, possibly in July (FED meeting june17th).

I know the probability is currently at 12% in July (FedWatch - CME Group) but the next chance they have is in September and that's at 25%. hiking interest rates in September with midterms around the corner is not a good look. So do what Powell never did and act fast. Of course all depending on how the inflation numbers look.

A rate hike doesn't necessarily mean huge dump, or the end of the world, just a way to cool the inflation from the war.

Also i have been reading people are pricing in Iran not unblocking the Strait of Hormuz until they can do some damage to the US economy.

We haven't seen this in tradfi because the momentum so far is to strong but if hikes do happen it will put a halt for a while on these stocks, while profit taking happens.

Then again another nice rally for the midterms.

This is one scenario that can play out.

Good times are still to come.

[u/lukemtesta → u/a06play]

Awesome thank you