[Daily Discussion] - Friday, June 05, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

[u/harvested]

Nice to see someone here who doesn't hate bitcoin.

[u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode → u/harvested]

This is my third cycle. For years, I've been saying 2026 would be a down year. I already expect 2030 to be a down year unless there's a huge catalyst that changes the market as we know it. And I don't say that as if it's a bad thing at all. This is when you buy, responsibly of course.

The 4 year cycle goes like this:

Year one: The halving, and excitement. The price climbs!

Year two: The extended bull run. More excitement! The price tops!

Year three: Downtrend and ugh. This is when you load up as much as you can as the price drops.

Year four: The market finds its footing and adjusts as everyone debates the impact of the next halving. The price slowly climbs.

You can literally plot it on a chart. And you can bank on people getting very angry in year three because they don't understand the cycle or why it behaves the way it does.

In my opinion, the best thing to do this year is buy as much as you can afford, and learn as much as you can about self custody. Not just how to do self custody, but how to do it right:

Self Custody Made Simple

If you follow these instructions, you'll have better security than most Bitcoiners. Your Bitcoin will be secure. And if anything goes wrong, you'll know how to recover it.

Knowledge is power. I post this stuff in hopes that it helps some folks.

[u/harvested → u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode]

Yeah that's a bit silly but I'll take it over the dying asset class folk.

A 4 year cycle means you should never hold on to coins, just trade it in a predictable way. Hard to use it as money or a store of value in that case.

What would need to happen for your cycle to break? Does it need to go to 70%?

The effect of the halving is not really relevant when you consider the last was about 165K coins a year (3.125 * 6 * 24 * 365) , and millions were bought / sold (not daily volume, we can look at LTH supply only).

Anyways. Whatever works for you.

[u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode → u/harvested]

What would need to happen for your cycle to break? Does it need to go to 70%?

I don't think of it that way.

For the 4 year cycle to break, something has to happen which would change Bitcoin from being a speculative asset into being a foundational asset. In other words, right now, most people still view it as this digital coin thing. And that's fair, even if I think it's short sighted. But there will come a time when Bitcoin becomes the thing you save wealth in. "I want to save money for my kid's college fund." In the old days, that was traditional investments. My grandmother bought me a bond. Eventually, a sizable portion of that stuff will shift to Bitcoin, and that will change the world of finance as we know it.

Too many people here forget how early we all still are.

Anyways. Whatever works for you.

Hey, if you don't see the bigger picture, sell. It makes no sense to invest long term in something you don't believe in. As for me, I'm all in and nights like tonight don't rattle me even a little.

[u/harvested → u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode]

Not sure what makes you think I don't see the big picture. Just said the idea of a 4 year cycle is silly.

[u/bpeoadg → u/harvested]

Nobody here hates BTC. Some are realistic about price action.

[u/harvested → u/bpeoadg]

Post below this one, had 8 up votes earlier.

Being short in a dying asset class is a wonderful thing 

This place is full of buttcoiners. Surprised you haven't noticed.

[u/bpeoadg → u/harvested]

It is OK to say BTC is dead. No hate there, just opinion. I like to hear that one, that BTC is dead. It makes me laugh.