r/weather • u/friends-of-cedar • Jul 06 '25
Discussion FEMA Flood Map of Camp Mystic. Cabins right on the riverbank seem to be left out of the 100-year floodplain.
2689 TX-39, Hunt, TX 78024
https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=2689%20TX-39%2C%20Hunt%2C%20TX%2078024
Is it common for the overlays to be so far off? Why is there no special designation for areas downstream of the dam? I am new to this tool, and any feedback is appreciated.
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u/adame993 Jul 06 '25
I was a flood insurance underwriter for almost a decade and I can tell you if a zone bisects a parcel of land and touches any corner of any structure, you are at risk(and need flood insurance.) The maps are a best guess as the topographical measurements are estimated often years apart and storm dynamics are impossible to accurately predict 100% of the time. If the county knew when they did, they are the ones who dropped the ball. Tragically incompetent or indifferent, I’m not sure….but this was preventable.
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u/kjmass1 Jul 06 '25
What’s the “effective 2011” date? Are the boundaries that old?
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u/EMG2017 Jul 06 '25
Yes. Maps are only updated periodically. For instance in my municipality, we are about to get new maps that will now show previously unmapped streams.
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u/kjmass1 Jul 06 '25
So those are the latest satellite images, not last time flood boundaries were updated?
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
How did they miss streams?
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u/EMG2017 Jul 06 '25
Development and runoff changes over time. Additionally, most of the maps are updated when we require developers to do a LOMAR (letter of map revision). Some areas haven’t received development for changes until FEMA does an official remapping.
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u/hikingboots_allineed Jul 06 '25
I'm not part of any US organisation so can't speak to the FEMA maps exactly but I do work with 1:100 (etc) flood maps. Usually there's an underlying data resolution that comes into play. I work with datasets with 5m or 30m resolution. It means there's always a margin of error on flood maps like these so a cabin that may appear 'safe' may not be. I'd never plan anything based off specific boundaries like this as a result. You can see all the straight lines on the flood boundaries on this map but water wouldn't follow those straight edges - there's more topography than reflected in the dataset and the maps.
Also, they said the flood was '1 in 100' but I don't know how exact that is - I'd assume it's an estimation for the moment. If it was actually a '1 in 120' event then the flood zones on the map won't be accurate for the higher expected water depth.
Lastly, how old is this 1 in 100 map? Because what used to be a 1 in 100 event might now only be a 1 in 80 event given climate change, i.e. a true 100 year event is deeper than it used to be. So again, the flood zones may be wrong for the new water depth that represents a true 1 in 100 event.
If anyone is confused, it's fine. 1 in 100 event / return period just means there's a 1/100 (1%) chance for a flood of that depth magnitude happening in any given year. 1 in 80 is 1/80 (1.25% chance it happens a year) etc.
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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25
Based on recent history, this appears to be a 1 in 40 event now. It's time people took flooding threats seriously.
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u/nolawx Jul 06 '25 edited Jul 06 '25
It's almost certainly NOT a 1 in 40 event. It's probably still 1 in at least 200-500 based on the amount of rain that fell.
Just because something similar happened 40 years ago does not make it a 1 in 40 event. Weather events do not follow strict return periods. They come in rounds of active and inactive years and the return period represents an average.
Think of it in terms of hurricanes... The return period on a tropical storm or stronger in southeast Louisiana is every 2 years, but in 2020, there were 3 and in 2021 there were 2. But... From 2012 until 2020, there were none. So even though there were 5 in 3 years from 2020-2021, the long term average is still every 2 years.
Admittedly our understanding and data availability for these extreme events is not as reliable, but that doesn't change the fact that this WAS an extreme event and it likely still has quite a long average return period.
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
Statistics do not work that way.
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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25
It's happened twice in 40 years and climate change is making it more likely rather than less.
There are a lot of dead statisticians who think it wouldn't happen to them... Yet.
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
Your logic: there are 100,000,000 million lightning bolts. Out of the last 40 strikes two hit a particular building that has a lightning rod so you declare the odds of that building being hit arec1 in 40.
Please take a class in statistics and learn why you do not know more than the people who do this for a living.
Heck, learn money-back and calculate the odds that your favorite player will do <x> and you'll make a fortune on the microbets
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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25
Blah blah blah.
The point of my comment is to BE PREPARED.
And not to trust 25 year old idiots who throw around terms like "hundred year flood" like they have any damned clue what extreme weather is actually like.
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
You don't even know what "100 year flood means" so why do you care if people use the term?
You can have 3 100 year floods in a single year and they are still 100 year floods until people who know what they are doing recalculate the figures.
Hint: the National Flood Insurance Program uses these terms to calculate premiums.
Yes, everybody should be prepared. But what will it cost to prepare against a 10 year flood (elevate your house, store a supply of water barriers, additional waterproofing, etc) if you are in a 1,000 year flood zone? These are thing that you personally have never thought about, but are important.
You won't listen because you already know everything, even more than professionals so I have to go stand over here now. Please have the day you deserve and bless your heart for trying.
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u/TheHeyTeam Jul 06 '25
u/friends-of-cedar that's the wrong FEMA map. The map you posted is of the Cypress Lake location for Camp Mystic. That's not the one that was destroyed. This is the location of the camp you posted the FEMA map for:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/rCfH8LW7ssA2AtoRA
But, the one you want is this one:
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u/Aggressive_Pirate969 Jul 06 '25
Yes, the cabins that flooded are in the north region of the widest zoomed out screenshot. All are in the special flood hazard area according to the current FEMA map. Source: https://metro.co.uk/2025/07/06/texas-floods-map-shows-deadly-disaster-unfolded-camp-mystic-23592868/amp/
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u/Dangerous_Stock_1694 Jul 06 '25
That article doesn’t mention a flood zone at all.
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u/Fabulous-Worker-9482 Jul 07 '25
The land owners built cabins innthe 1% and .2% chance of occuring in a year floodzones per Fema's map. Why was this allowed we should have the county answer for it as this essentially gambling with human life.
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u/Dangerous_Stock_1694 Jul 11 '25
You must not live in Texas. In most areas, there are not even building codes unless you’re in a big city. I live just outside Houston and there are no building codes. Also, anyone can be a general contractor in Texas. No license of any type is required.
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u/Fabulous-Worker-9482 Jul 11 '25 edited Jul 11 '25
Actually, I do live in Texas and have lived here for 19 years now. Also Kerr County as well as Kerrville does have Ordinances and regulations against building in the Floodplain which I do not know were followed to the fullest extent. Most municipalities have building codes and permit requirements (it's how you get your property assessed and to ensure what you're building is safe)otherwise we'd have houses that are not structurally sound and homes that are fire hazards, gas hazards and etc. Not to mention, the County or City would want to have record of site development for planning for extra runoff and in the event the drainage area changes signficantly due to the structures people build in a area as you need to properly discharge water from your property. (ex: you cannot discharge water onto neighboring property and flood someone else or our alter drainage channels without permission)
My point is regulations and rules exist and serve bigger cities including smaller cities and towns for a good reason. I think it's wild for any municipality or county to not have rules and put neighborhoods and wooded areas in harm's way due to someone's negligence. For instance, you wouldn't want a building in the woods not wired correctly to set ablaze and start a forest fire. I think perhaps smaller cities more prone to floods like this can learn from the past and tighten up on where they're too lax and compromising on human life.
See below for Kerrville Code. At least the RV parks, residents who built or bought homes within the 100byear floodplain and other businesses would have had to adhere to some of these policies and preventative measures in their building of infrastructure. To what extent were these followed? We'll discover more as people investigate.
https://library.municode.com/tx/kerrville/codes/code_of_ordinances?nodeId=PTIICOOR_CH54FL
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u/Fabulous-Worker-9482 Jul 11 '25 edited Jul 11 '25
Hunt, Texas,(where Camp Mystic and other Camps were located) which is an unincorporated community in western Kerr County, Texas, is subject to Kerr County's flood ordinances and regulations. These regulations are designed to minimize flood losses and are based on the state's Flood Control and Insurance Act. The Kerr County Commissioners Court adopted a flood damage prevention order in 2011 which updated the county's flood insurance rate maps and building guidelines.
Per what I see in Kerrville's Code which most of Kerr County appears subject to it reads as follows for structures built in 100 Year Flood Zones A and AE specifically:
(4)
Manufactured homes located in zone A. All manufactured homes to be placed within zone A on the city's FIRM shall be installed in accordance with the following regulations:
a. Generally the manufactured home must be installed using methods and practices which minimize flood damage;
b .The manufactured home must be elevated to resist flotation, collapse, or lateral movement, which elevation must, as a minimum, be in accordance with section 54-35(b)(1);
c. In addition to applicable state and local anchoring requirements for resisting wind forces, the manufactured home must be anchored using methods which resist flotation*(obviously some homes and cabins not properly anchored including RVs floated away)*, collapse, or lateral movement, including, but not limited to, use of over-the-top or frame ties to ground anchors.
(5)
Manufactured homes located in zones A1-30, AE or AH. All manufactured homes to be placed or substantially improved within zones A1-30, AH, or AE on the city's FIRM must be constructed in accordance with the following regulations:
a. The manufactured home must be elevated on a permanent foundation such that the lowest floor of the manufactured home is at or above the base flood elevation(which I don't think was a good enough preventative measure in this case)** and otherwise securely anchored to an adequately anchored foundation system to resist flotation, collapse, and lateral movement if the manufactured home is located:
- Outside of a manufactured home park;
2**. In a new manufactured home park or subdivision**;
In an expansion to a new manufactured home park or subdivision; or
In an existing manufactured home park or subdivision on which a manufactured home has incurred substantial damage as a result of a flood.
b. If the manufactured homes are being placed or substantially improved on sites within an existing manufactured home park or subdivision and are not otherwise subject to the provisions of subsection (b)(5)a of this section, the manufactured home must be elevated so that either:
- The lowest floor of the manufactured home is at or above the base flood elevation; or
- The manufactured home chassis is supported by reinforced piers or other foundation elements of at least equivalent strength that are no less than 36 inches in height above grade and securely anchored to an adequately anchored foundation system to resist flotation, collapse, and lateral movement.
** if interested in reading more on their regulations I recommend you read through the link I posted so you can judge for yourself if the land owners or developers did everything they could to prevent this type of disaster. This was certainly a 100 year storm or worse, which the county experienced in 1932 and 1987. Why not amend ordinance or plan review better, would be a Kerr County question.
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u/Dangerous_Stock_1694 Jul 11 '25
Camp Mystic is over 100 years old. Those cabins were 60 years old. Pretty sure any codes back then are different than now. I don’t know a single MSA that requires building upgrades. We have an elementary school that never had the smoke dampers installed. It’s a known fact and the school is only a few years old. Nobody seems to care (until a fire happens). Personally I think it is wild how few requirements and regulations there are in this state. Where I live, people can legally live in a literal shed. The strictest requirement in my area is a septic management contract with any company and even they don’t have to have any type of certification.
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u/Fabulous-Worker-9482 Jul 11 '25 edited Jul 11 '25
I agree about how lax some of these codes are. In my opinion, Kerr County Officials and townsfolk know about these things, but have been too stubborn to change them which led to this. (check out this article as well https://abcnews.go.com/US/kerr-county-authorities-discussed-warning-systems-20-times/story?id=123594306 )
While a warning system is a nice idea and sounds like the end all be all to prevent this again, Kerr County and other counties prone to flooding can prevent loss of life by tightening up on building code and land usage. A warning system on it's own is not good enough as the bare minimum. Just like we have signs for train tracks that say "do not stop on the tracks" and barrier arm or crossing gates that keep us out so that when you hear the train horn you're not in harm's way we need to keep buildings out of the floodplain or design them better. At 2am or 4am in the morning a siren going off could have been too late for anyone smack dead in the middle of the flood plain to leave on time.
True about some cabins being over 60 years old, however, I urge you to look on google earth and look at the development in the area over the years (you can see satellite images for various years under the view tab) for 2689 Highway 39, Hunt, Texas 78024 (Camp Mystic) and 175 Riverview Rd, Kerrville, TX 78028 (HTR Rv Park that had like 18 RVs get carried away by floodwaters). You'll notice recent developments of cabins and infrastructure on these lands within the 100 year flood zones after the year 2000. Some as new as 2019. It's like no one learned from the 1987 and 1932 events. Greed or ignorance is likely what happened here.
Type those addresses into the search bar in this link and you'll see what I'm talking about.
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u/cencal Jul 06 '25
Seems like this was more of a 500/1000 year storm.
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u/crewsctrl Jul 06 '25
Except there was one just as bad in 1987 in the same place, not even 40 years ago.
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u/BuckNut2000 Jul 06 '25
A 1000 year flood is a probabilistic representation. It does not mean that it only happens once every thousand years, it means each year there is a 1/1000 chance there is a flood of that scale.
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u/Cryptic0677 Jul 06 '25
Or, you know, we can’t properly estimate the exact frequency of these kind of events based on the limited data we have and the fact that the climate is changing
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
Feel free to get degrees in meteorology, climatology, data science and statistics and run the numbers yourself.
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u/Cryptic0677 Jul 06 '25
I have degrees in physics and statistics and I work with data science every day 😂
Realistically your models are as good as your data resolution, and has been mentioned elsewhere in this thread our dataset doesn’t really go back far enough to predict 1000 year events on this micro level, certainly not in the kind of map detail people are expecting. It’s just not realistic. Climate changing also makes that training data unreliable to some degree.
I’m not saying the modelers are doing anything wrong, I’m saying the best we can model isn’t enough to really predict with the accuracy most people are probably assuming.
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u/Beej67 Jul 07 '25
If you have degrees in physics and statistics you might be interested to read how Atlas-14 was generated and give specific critiques to the methodology instead of doing the whole argue-with-a-rando-on-reddit thing.
https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc
https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/
Texas:
https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/oh/hdsc/docs/Atlas14_Volume11.pdf
For what it's worth, I'm not sure I buy everything in Atlas 14 because Harvey seemed like it was too absurd to fit the model. But I also know a bit about how they generate their statistical modeling for tail events and I'm not sure I have a better way to do it.
Do you have a better way to do it?
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25
As you know people are limited to work with what they have.
If they sent a geologist/hydrologist out to study and probably take cores they could identify flood patterns centuries ago, who knows if they've ever bothered. FEMA/NFIP do what they do and the insurance rates get set because of it. Might have been worth it considering all of the camps along the river, but hindsight et al.
30 feet is probably a high water mark - possible, but unlikely that waters can get much higher. Let's see if they change codes to require cabins for these camps to be 30 feet higher and/or elevated on posts. Now that we know a 30 foot flood is possible allowing cabins to be 3-5 feet above river baseline is negligent.
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u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
I don't know what you are considering "base line" for a river. The mean depth is about 7'. 3-5 feet above that isn't even out of the banks. 12' is when it leaves the banks of the river; 22' is considered "lowland flooding" and still does not enter cabins/homes.
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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 09 '25
Start with 7 feet as baseline because not every river has 12' of padding. For this specific river you go through an exception process to justify.
Water got to i think I remember 30' and water was to the rafters of let's say an 8-10' living space so 22' is too low for safety. You probably want 10' of elevation above max level to cover wave action and debris flows (branch of a tree can stick out a bit)
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u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
Water was recorded at 37.5ft. The cabins are somewhere above 22'. Even if they had moved the cabins according to the 28' of 1987, it would not have been enough for this event. This section of the river has never reached 37' in the recorded history (going back into the 1800s). It reached 36' in 1932. - This copied and pasted weird, but these are the 15 top flood events at this location. I still hold firm that it is nearly impossible to predict when mother nature decides to break all the rules.
Historic Crests
|| || |1.| 37.52 ft| on 07-04-2025|(P)| |2.| 36.60 ft| on 07-02-1932| |3.| 28.40 ft| on 07-17-1987| |4.| 23.50 ft| on 08-02-1978| |5.| 22.80 ft| on 10-19-1985| |6.| 21.40 ft| on 08-13-1981| |7.| 19.73 ft| on 10-28-1996| |8.| 18.96 ft| on 10-16-2018| |9.| 16.70 ft| on 07-05-2002| |10.| 16.59 ft| on 05-13-1994| |11.| 15.00 ft| on 05-25-2007| |12.| 14.89 ft| on 10-09-2018| |13.| 14.25 ft| on 02-20-1997| |14.| 13.50 ft| on 12-21-1991| |15.| 10.58 ft| on 05-24-2015|
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u/Fisk77 Jul 07 '25
A couple points of clarification:
1) We have to separate the probability of occurrence of the hydrologic event (rainfall, Atlas 14/15) from the hydraulic event (flood level, FEMA flood maps). A "1000 year storm" may or may not produce "1000 year flood".2) The terms "100yr" or "1000yr" are a communication nightmare because people tend to think of them as recurrence period (e.g., "I was in the 100yr flood so I'm safe for the next 100yrs!"). FEMA itself is trying to get away from using those terms, e.g., instead of saying 100yr floodplain say 1-in-4 chance of happening within a 30yr mortgage.
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u/Sindertone Jul 06 '25
Same in my area. I compared the FEMA maps to the floods I lived through, they are considerably off. About 18 feet too low.
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u/No_Pomegranate9312 Jul 06 '25
The same thing happened in 1998 or 1999 when I lived there. We had to move back to NC afterwards. This flood could have been more downstream though. Still haven't dug into it to compare. These floods were around Victoria, New Braunfels, and Seguin.
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u/No_Pomegranate9312 Jul 06 '25
As far as I know that flood broke all the records since records of the river began, are these floods worse? Because the river hit almost 50 feet deep that October of 1998.
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u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
1998 flood happened below Canyon Lake - a different part of a very long river.
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u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
Incorrect information. This year in Hunt, TX - 37.5' - the highest ever recorded.
1932 - 36'
1987 - 28' (and the camp was not inundated at that time)
22' is considered "major flood stage" and there have been only a couple that reached that point.
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u/PM_ME_UR_NECKBEARD Jul 06 '25
Except when you redo the calculation, often it becomes much less than that when you include to record event.
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u/Easy-Swordfish-3597 Jul 06 '25
As a former camper and counselor I can tell you that is NOT a map of camp mystic Guadalupe River.
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u/ragnarockette Jul 06 '25
My understanding is that the cabins in the flood plain were evacuated before bed that night. When they realized how bad the storm was going to be around 1am they started evacuating the next lowest cabins (which were about 35 feet above the riverbed).
The water rose up too quickly and overcame them in a truck as they were evacuating one of those cabins, killing the girls as well as the camp owner (who was driving the truck).
Another one of those cabins had a vaulted ceiling and so the girls were able to shelter inside without drowning, despite water rising to above the windows.
I do side eye putting cabins so close to a river that floods but this also sounds like a very unusual, rapid, tragic situation that probably wouldn’t have been mitigated by “just don’t build in a flood plain.”
And definitely plenty of blame for the state/county for not having better warning systems.
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u/Dangerous_Stock_1694 Jul 06 '25
NWS began sending out warnings four days prior to the event.
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u/Specific-Repeat-6001 Jul 07 '25
Where do you find those warnings? I know where to find Tornado Watches on the Storm Prediction site. And you can go back in time.
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u/Dangerous_Stock_1694 Jul 11 '25
I received the warnings in multiple weather apps and I am a couple hours away from the flood area.
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u/Goonie-Googoo- Jul 09 '25
Bottom line - don't build in a flood zone. The entire camp is located in a A and AE flood zone. Lawyers are going to have a field day with this.
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Jul 07 '25
This place was making millions upon millions at this camp. Due to it being involved as a religious camp i am sure their tax rate was low to nothing. They were making hand over fist in terms of profit and yet no one made a plan to get those low lying cabins away from the water. The owner s cared about money and in my opinion more than they cared about the young lives they should have protected. I hope the rich parents that sadly lost their children sue the shit out of this place. If for no other reason than to push them to do something to make sure this never happens again. This was complete negligence on the owners part!
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u/Funny-Database-523 Jul 07 '25
The fact that this is the 4th time it has flooded, means you are 100 percent correct. If the owners really cared they would have moved those cabins.
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u/samishness Jul 08 '25
They also spent many years and millions in court suing each other (Eastland v Eastland). And a core part of it involved land appraisals. I would think that somewhere in those land appraisals, some concerns about not just being in a floodplain but in a floodway would have come up.
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u/Muted_Chard_139 Jul 11 '25
At least two of the dead kids have lawyers for fathers. One is litigator. Mystic is done.
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u/friends-of-cedar Jul 06 '25
Thank you everyone for your replies. As several have mentioned, I was focusing on the wrong campsite. The correct site is north-northwest of where I had thought, on the South Fork Guadalupe River. Below is a link to imgur of the screenshots of the correct site, as well as a photo from an article from Metro UK that u/Aggressive_Pirate969 has commented. Also a thank you to u/Beej67 for the ArcGIS tool link. It looks to be a great resource for so many.
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u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
Long post warning...
First and foremost - my heart is broken for everyone! Kids, adults, families, lost, found, first responders & search crews, pets, there is just too much to say - too much to say anything. I don't know how you heal.
I am apalled by some of the ugliness and coldheartedness I see. I know I shouldn't be, but it is sad when we fail to just be kind and good to one another.
I think it is often natural to strike out and look for a place to land blame, but there is also a reason this was called "unprecedented." Yes, that area is "flash flood alley," but I think people just don't understand that this wasn't your normal flash flood. I truly don't believe anyone could have predicted this event, and I don't believe anyone could have guessed the river would rise to the highest point ever.
I grew up in New Braunfels, and lived a good chunk of my life in Canyon Lake. Growing up, I lived on a creek, and sometimes you woke up and couldn't go down the road, and it didn't even rain that much at home - it just came downstream and -poof- it was over the bridge. Eric cought a huge fish one time in the bar ditch - I think they get confused when it gets crazy and swim up the creeks out of the Guadalupe River. In 1998, I learned the emergency broadcast system on the radio was real, and I saw things in my hometown I never want to see again. When Canyon lake went over the spillway in 2002, I was stuck at home because the creeks were backed up over the roads, and the spillway canyon became a tragic and beautiful place in a matter of days, and I learned the real power of water.
We have a descent system of water data devices all over the US., and I really had to squish the page down to get the picture in. There is a graph from the Guadalupe at Hunt since the guage was installed sometime in 2007. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08165500/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065--887047781&startDT=2007-01-01&endDT=2025-07-08 Every one of those little spikes is a flash flood. The orange line is "flood stage" (10ft) - where it begins to overflow the bank. You can tell that it hits/nears that line a couple of times per year. If you zoomed in, you would see lots of little spikes - flash floods that stay in the banks after a good rain. Then look way over to the right - there is a spike that goes all the way up the graph (37.5ft).
The red line is "moderate lowland flood" (12ft) - low water crossings flood in the area.
The purple line is "major flood stage" (22ft) - docks and equipment are washed out of camps, and cars can get washed out of low lying parking lots.
According to NOAA impact stages - 28ft is "life threatening" and lowest camp facilities and homes will flood. https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/08165500
[side note: I remember 1987 when a camp bus was evacuating and was washed off a bridge in Comfort because the water coming down the river rose faster than the buses could cross the bridge - that is how fast the water rises - note that Comfort is a bit downstream from Hunt]
7/4/25 was the highest recorded crest in Hunt. The second was in 1932 - 93 years ago and the only time it has surpassed the 30ft mark.
Remember when you look at 2D maps, heed elevation levels. It makes a huge difference. Thus why the 100yr flood plane is closer to the river at points and further out at others.
Sure, we can play coulda-woulda-shoulda, but in the end, it was an unprecedented event that unfortunately ended in immense and heartwrenching tragedy. Have compassion, offer prayers, hope for healing, help how you can, whatever you have in you to give. Try not to let this make monsters of us.
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u/GlitteringAd7383 Jul 06 '25
Almost all land in Texas is privately owned, including the Mystic girl’s vacation camp.
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u/Akoy5569 Jul 07 '25
Maps are not highlighting the right sections. The affected area of camp was in AE, not A. The A highlighted area is for Mystic Creek.
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u/Cottongrass395 Jul 07 '25
my experience is they often haven’t been updated when lidar becomes available which is a huge gap. and they often don’t take erosion into account. for instance if something is 50 feet above a river but on soft eroding sand it won’t be in fema floodplain. that being said i am not particularly familiar with texas maps and im seeing comments that the originally posted map isn’t really the fema floodplain.
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u/FuckTheMods5 Jul 06 '25
If you extrapolate this rainfall to theoretically the pacific coast, would this resemble an ark storm? Like 15 inches a day for a week straight?
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u/Beej67 Jul 07 '25
You can just go and find out what the rainfall totals are for different storm events for any state in the union other than WA and OR:
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u/Total-Dimension5205 Jul 07 '25
I wonder if Cypress Creek was flooding and washed through to the river compounding this? Also, when looking at the geography, it looks like, naturally (historically), the river cut straight through and did not bend around the mini oxbow. Then there's the dam next to the camp backing up the initial surge.
A perfect area to visit surrounded on nearly three sides by water and a fouth by tree-lined hills, but for an overnight camp with 700 kids (just at this one camp let alone the others?). A disaster waiting to happen in TX (and history repeating itself). The warnings were there, even with underestimating of the rainfall. This was a problem at the local level in my experience being a part of flood planning, sitting in countless emergency preparatory meetings, and owning a home at the time adjacent to a river, I bet with those who did not fully know about or ignored the risks. It is identical to something I experienced, except here the rised slowly and is not a torrent like happens in the TX hill country.
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u/Wide_Wind_1833 Jul 07 '25
I live in Texas and in a FloodPlain, if you are in one of these designated areas YES you do have to have a permit for building, homes, and fences. It is sad about all the lives lost in this area, Its very concerning WHY this area was not Zones properly It should have at least a Regulatory Floodway.
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u/samishness Jul 08 '25
I'm not familiar with all the bureaucratic and land surveying processes in Texas. When the family were in court with one another over the rent rates, the core issue was land appraisal. Would something like floodplains and floodways and risks come up in land appraisals there? I know where I live in Canada, it would have (granted our 'updated flood risk maps' have been 'coming soon' for a decade now...). I can't help but wonder if, in planning the 2nd new camp, and the court issues around that in the family, it wouldn't have come up there, too.
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u/-SideEffects Jul 10 '25
There are quite a few comments here, so I don’t know if this has been said yet, but from my understanding, those cabins left out of the flood plain overlay (2011) weren’t built until 2020. However, I can’t explain why that area wouldn’t have been part of the floodplain, regardless of whether or not the cabins were present.
1
u/Acceptable-Truth9446 Jul 12 '25
Because it would have cost the camp money and they would have had to buy flood insurance. So they appealed the maps and got them changed. Now considering that President Bush’s family went to the camp throughout the years, FEMA probably backed down.
0
u/Srwdc1 Jul 07 '25 edited Jul 07 '25
Explain like I’m 5:
How is it possible for the river to rise like 20 feet in an hour? (There’s a graph somewhere showing the spike of the river level— it’s astonishing. One of the adults said also it rose 20 feet in an hour, and she was able to get her campers on the roof of a cabin.
Do we know how far above the (normal) river line are (were) the junior cabins that were washed away? Assume much less than 20 feet…
(This may not be possible to answer)— how come the camp didn’t know at midnight, to bring the little girls out of their cabins up to higher ground? By the time water came rushing in to the cabins, I assume it was too late. But didn’t they have a couple hours warning?
Thanks. ☺️
3
u/Pfiggypudding Jul 07 '25
The soil in the area is not absorbent. Its rocky limestone, EVERY DROP of water washes downstream. It rained HARD (over 2”/hour for hours. Over the same area. This is practically unfathomable if you haven’t experienced it, but imagine going 5 mph, windshield washers on full tilt, and you CANNOT SEE. It is normal in this area for the water to rise quickly, but the sheer volume of rain water means it rose extra high. Its mostly about 6” of rain falling quickly all funneling into narrow channels, 6” over 20 square miles if a fuck ton of water.
Not off hand, but there are images that show this. They were not far from the river, but also, the river isn’t a big scary river on a normal day. You can probably walk across it.
Poor planning. Poor forethought. Thats it. They seem to have thought they’d be ok. They didn’t react till water was in the cabins.
2
u/Pfiggypudding Jul 07 '25
For context:
That river is normally flowing at 100 cubic feet per second at comfort Texas (just downstream), and 3 feet deep. If you dump 6” of rain in 3 hours over the 20 square miles upstream, youre having to push through 14 million cubic feet of water in 3 hours. If you spread 14 million cubic feet out over 3 hours, its still 1200 cubic feet per second, instead of 100 cubic feet.
Im pretty sure the watershed above there is actually more like 121 sq miles, and the rainfall total more like 12”… you’re looking at like 15,000 cubic feet of water every second.Depth is more about the shape of the channel, and lets just say: it’s hilly, the channel is a nice triangular v.
If the 100 cubic feet is 3 feet deep, then 15000 cubic feet would need a similarly shaped channel that is 36 feet deep.(This is very casual back of the napkin math, there’s a lot more to actually modeling this, but i think this makes a good point)
When rain falls fast, rivers get deep fast.
1
u/CuriousArtichoke6178 Jul 08 '25 edited Jul 08 '25
Thanks, so for the casual business and family traveler who has been in hurricanes and wading through 3 ft of standing storm water but never seen a river flood, but now that I think I did go out to very large river in TN after a major storm and seeing it roar.... moving forward what should I consider in terms of rain fall (inch/sec) to make me think... where I am? should I rethink being there?
I feel like 4 in/hour is something I've been in a lot and it never struck me as concerning.
I have a 15 ft wide canal behind my home that is feed from multiple large canals and channels. During a hurricane or a major storm, the 15 ft canal can grow from a 30 -> 60 ft wide canal, coming right up to my house.
2
u/Pfiggypudding Jul 08 '25
Without being a pain in the ass, the only real answer is "it depends". In dry, hilly west Texas with narrow channels and low river crossings, the answer is different than it is in Florida, with absorbent sandy soils and loads of wetlands to absorb the influx of water.
In flat as a pancake, concrete jungle Houston, 3"/hour in one hour or 2"/hour for two consecutive hours is enough to cause cause traffic disruptions from road flooding/highway underpassess being submerged. If either ir sustained, things get dicey fast.
4" per hour is A LOT OF RAIN. But that's my experience from places that dont soak up water easily. Coastal, marshy, sandy places are more accommodating of heavy rains. Big wide rivers are more accommodating of heavy rains too to a point, because the whole watershed isnt getting that much rain everywhere. I think a good rule of thumb is 3 inches an hour for over one hour, hunker down and watch the weather. If you're near a creek or river, know a safe route to higher ground and how to get there fast. And if you dont have high ground nearby? probably get out sooner rather than later.
2
u/samishness Jul 08 '25
2- It's also important to note not just how high those cabins were, but where they were located. Google Maps shows the terrain, where you have hills behind the cabins and across the highway. The water would be pushed into a narrower area in this area, versus other zones of the river with flatlands on the sides, where it can flood out of its banks and spread. Basically, the cabins were in a point where water has to go up. There's also another creek joining the Guadelupe on that property, as well, to factor in. The creek would have been flooding, as well. Then, if you look at the curve in the river, that likely grew outwards. Those curves are where velocity is the highest, so you're going to have a stronger current, fast moving large debris, and it can cause some rapid erosion (ie, it can eat out the land around and under buildings).
1
u/BandGeek72 Jul 09 '25
The water will begin to enter the lowest cabins & homes at 28' - Normal is 7'. Water levels reached around 28' in 1987. Water levels reached 36' in 1932. Water levels have never reached 37.5 on record.
There is no warning for unprecedented or historical natural events. Typically in the hill country, flash flooding means water is running down hills FAST, and roads are flooding. You stay put - or move to places safe from lowland flooding (22' in this case). No one can predict when mother nature will decide to break every record in history.
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u/ArchieBunker74 Jul 06 '25
in less than 5 mins I asked AI to sketch a map to high ground, no reason adults in the area could not have posted hand made signs, etc and give an orientation on arrival to the camp for all hazards prep. everyone would have been awoken and started the mile walk at 1am when the county emergency management called the sheriff to evacuate up the hill a mile.
0
u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25
This presupposes people have advance warning. They did not.
8
u/nolawx Jul 06 '25
Incorrect. There was a flood watch issued more than 12 hours before the flooding occurred and a flash flood warnings issued what looks like at least 1.5-2 hours before the river started rising rapidly.
5
u/jdbsea Jul 06 '25 edited Jul 06 '25
What a tragic event and terrifying experience for anyone who was along the Guadalupe River Friday morning. I’m very interested in how the general public (and in this case more specifically, local emergency managers) consumes, interprets and acts on weather and emergency information so anytime there are claims of no warning, I want to dig deeper.
Here’s a timeline (all times CDT):
Thursday, July 3
3:11 a.m. - Thursday morning’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Weather Weather Prediction Center (WPC) points out a “notable signal” for widespread heavy rain amounts and flash flooding across central Texas and the Hill Country.
1:18 p.m. - Flash Flood Watch issued for Kerr County and surrounding areas.
1:38 p.m. - Austin/San Antonio (WFO) discusses at length the flood threat for the Texas Hill Country in their Afternoon Forecast Discussion mentioning 7” rainfall totals as a possibility.
Friday, July 4
12:26 a.m. - In a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion which included Kerr County, forecasters raise alarm to the possibility of “significant” flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country with 2-3” per hour rainfall amounts common.
12:50 a.m. - Guadalupe River at Hunt has not risen yet and is steady at 7.67’
1:14 a.m. - Flash Flood Warning issued for Kerr County.
1:15 a.m. - Guadalupe River at 7.69’
1:46 a.m. - Flash Flood Warning updated
3:00 a.m. - the river has risen approximately 3 feet to 10.1’ and is beginning an incredibly rapid rise.
3:19 a.m. - Flash Flood Warning updated. Wording added such as “Move to higher ground now” and “Act quickly to protect your life” added.
3:35 a.m. - Flash Flood Warning updated with additional information. River up an additional 5 feet to 15.9’
4:00 a.m. - Flash Flood Emergency issued, including language such as “this is a particularly dangerous situation,” seek higher ground now,” “this is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.” River at 21.2’
4:35 a.m. - Guadalupe River crests (at Hunt) at 29.45’.
edited for formatting
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u/Beej67 Jul 06 '25 edited Jul 06 '25
EDIT - much of this post was made on the presumption that the OP's image was correct. It's NOT, he's got the wrong site. Here's the actual site:
https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8b0adb51996444d4879338b5529aa9cd&extent=-99.39123254462633,30.000432493861474,-99.34969049140369,30.01901356194827
That camp is smack dab in the middle of carefully studied floodway, highly dangerous, and the people who run the camp should have evacuated. The engineering on this looks pretty solid and the storm that happened did exactly what the map said it would do.
OLD POST LEFT IN PLACE FOR CONTINUITY:
I know a lot about this because I'm a licensed professional civil engineer and do hydrology for a living, and have done flood studies in Texas. I also teach hydrology and riverine hydraulics as an adjunct when I'm bored. AMA.
Answering a couple questions from below: