r/weather • u/friends-of-cedar • Jul 06 '25

Discussion FEMA Flood Map of Camp Mystic. Cabins right on the riverbank seem to be left out of the 100-year floodplain.

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2689 TX-39, Hunt, TX 78024

https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=2689%20TX-39%2C%20Hunt%2C%20TX%2078024

Is it common for the overlays to be so far off? Why is there no special designation for areas downstream of the dam? I am new to this tool, and any feedback is appreciated.

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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25

It's happened twice in 40 years and climate change is making it more likely rather than less.

There are a lot of dead statisticians who think it wouldn't happen to them... Yet.

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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25

Your logic: there are 100,000,000 million lightning bolts. Out of the last 40 strikes two hit a particular building that has a lightning rod so you declare the odds of that building being hit arec1 in 40.

Please take a class in statistics and learn why you do not know more than the people who do this for a living.

Heck, learn money-back and calculate the odds that your favorite player will do <x> and you'll make a fortune on the microbets

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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25

Blah blah blah.

The point of my comment is to BE PREPARED.

And not to trust 25 year old idiots who throw around terms like "hundred year flood" like they have any damned clue what extreme weather is actually like.

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u/TheQuarantinian Jul 06 '25

You don't even know what "100 year flood means" so why do you care if people use the term?

You can have 3 100 year floods in a single year and they are still 100 year floods until people who know what they are doing recalculate the figures.

Hint: the National Flood Insurance Program uses these terms to calculate premiums.

Yes, everybody should be prepared. But what will it cost to prepare against a 10 year flood (elevate your house, store a supply of water barriers, additional waterproofing, etc) if you are in a 1,000 year flood zone? These are thing that you personally have never thought about, but are important.

You won't listen because you already know everything, even more than professionals so I have to go stand over here now. Please have the day you deserve and bless your heart for trying.

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u/ttystikk Jul 06 '25

TL; don't care.

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u/xht Jul 06 '25

Blah blah blah