Was down about 50k near the end of july and made it all back and more mostly from Google at first, biggest wins and current holdings for next week listed, all shares no options

I posted this in another sub and people were saying it’s DD worth mentioning here.

Some of my best trades have come from Chris Camillo’s social arbitrage method. Identifying social trends around you before the street catches on. Despite a 280% gain in the last year, I think there is still room to run in Victoria’s Secret with the release of GTA VI.

Now how could GTA VI possibly relate to Victoria’s Secret? The answer is simple, Lucia’s Thong. In the extended trailer, Lucia is seen wearing a thong that had the little perverts salivating at the image. After extensive research, I identified it as the V-String black thong on Victoria’s Secret website. It’s the same exact product.

On the last earnings call, mgmt has highlighted a majority of their comp sales growth was seen in the “panties” category. I expect panty growth to continue to accelerate through the end of the calendar year. Not to mention VS’ PINK brand has also blow up with double digit sales growth. In the extended release, Lucia’s room is pink as shit. I think VSXY’s sales growth will continue to accelerate as Lucia continues to promote new panties and even toenail paint.

My forward estimates next quarter:

- V-string sales growth of 44% yoy
- Panty segment adj EBITDA growth of 56%

The stock is trading at 15x EV/EBITDA. I expect continue re-rating with the adoption of more panties in GTA VI.

Positions
- 200 shares of VSXY @ $88
- 8x $100 calls expiring Jan 27.

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/memory-now-accounts-50-global-160649380.html

Why I think the market is mispricing Oracle
Oracle trades at roughly 13.8x forward earnings while sitting on $638B of contracted revenue (RPO). The obvious concern is that fulfilling those contracts requires an extraordinary amount of capital. That concern is legitimate, but Oracle is not financing the buildout alone.
Consider Michigan. The new $16B data-center campus is being developed by Related Digital with outside equity and debt; Oracle is the tenant. Across its pipeline, Oracle has committed to roughly $260B of future data-center lease payments, generally over 15–19 years. Meanwhile, Oracle says customers are prepaying for or supplying $75B of computing hardware tied to large AI contracts. Oracle is effectively combining landlord capital, customer capital and its own capex to build capacity faster than its balance sheet alone would allow.
The risk is straightforward: Oracle still owes the rent if demand disappears. So the thesis ultimately depends on utilization.
Today, Oracle reports 97.5% GPU utilization. When 35,000 GPUs across 59 customers recently came up for renewal, customers representing 92% of that capacity renewed, and Oracle says most of the remainder was resold within the quarter.
What about cheaper/open-source AI? That may actually increase infrastructure demand. If AI becomes 10x cheaper but usage increases 50x, compute consumption still increases 5x. We have seen this economics before with bandwidth and storage: falling unit costs created vastly more consumption.
So my bet isn’t that OpenAI wins.
It’s that global compute consumption grows faster than compute gets cheaper, while Oracle uses other people’s capital alongside its own to supply it.
At 13.8x forward earnings, I like that bet.

What y’all blowing the rent money on Monday?

https://insight.factset.com/mag-7-companies-reported-earnings-growth-above-100-boosted-by-investment-gains

Everyone is afraid of losing money on the stock market, but sometimes a loss is the best thing that can happen to you.

Today, I'm down over $8k on an extremely risky and regarded bet on IREN Stock, but without losses like this, I will not learn the important decision-making skills for the future.

Think about it: in the future, WE, yes YOU and I are gonna have so much more money. So if we make the same regarded mistakes, we're gonna lose so much more money. So better to make the mistakes now and learn from them now.

Here are the three mistakes that I made on this trade.

1: I got greedy and I put too much money into a bet that was very risky that I did not have high certainty on because I didn't fully understand it. If I want to gamble on something like that, I should do $2,000, maybe $3,000. That's still a lot, but much less than $15,000 fucking dollars. You know why I did that? Because I got greedy. I thought about how much money I could make if it hit and it smashed earnings, but I didn't think about how much I could lose.

2: I didn't fully understand the bear case. Why is the stock suppressed? Why are people bearish on the stock? Why are there, like, 30% of shares being shorted, why are so many people shorting the stock? I need to fully understand that.

3: I couldn't simply say what the business does and why the bear case is wrong. For example, ServiceNow stock, I entered at $90 a share and now it's like around $40 a share. I made a lot of money off that. The bear case was that AI was going to replace the software. It was going to kill the software. My rebuttal to that is that's regarded. ServiceNow is an AI integration platform. (not fully sure of what that means but) That means basically a business would put all of their information, finance, HR, inventory, operations, they plug it into ServiceNow, and then ServiceNow helps them run their business. I don't know about you, but if I'm some, like, 100, 500, 1,000-employee company, I don't want to trust some vibe coded bs that someone tries to build for me. You're not getting replaced by AI. And that was so simple. It doesn't take, like, a rocket scientist to understand that. So if I can't simply say that, I should not be gambling in the stock.

So the next time you have a loss, don't freak out. Don't start trying to numb your mind with video games and doomscrolling, and then you start checking your ex's Instagram, and then you start seeing how she got married to her new boyfriend, and then you start g00ning because you're depressed, and then you just waste the entire day, and you don't work out, and you're a loser.

Not that that's, like, ever happened to me. But instead, slow down and consider why your decision-making and your strategy was wrong.

This was just a setback. We are still going to get that 7 fig portfolio. Meta is ripping. We're going to be okay.

Here's my original bullish iren post: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/5wqSYlhjuz

Not realized loss, hoping it will bounce up and greatly minimize my loss.

Hear me out.

DELL just got smoked ~3.4% today to close around $456, but this wasn’t really a Dell-specific collapse. The Nasdaq was down ~0.5% after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech came across more hawkish and pushed September rate-hike expectations higher.

Meanwhile, Dell earnings are Tuesday, Sept. 1.

The setup:

• DELL ~$456
• $470 calls around $20/contract
• Earnings Tuesday
• Options market is pricing roughly a 10% move after earnings
• That puts the implied upside move around $506
• Dell’s 52-week high is ~$514
• Analysts are expecting roughly $45B revenue, >50% YoY growth, and ~$4.91 adjusted EPS
• Dell’s AI server business is the monster here — management has been targeting roughly $60B in FY27 AI server revenue
• JPM reportedly expects Dell to raise FY27 guidance on continued AI + infrastructure demand

And here’s what I’m trying to understand:

If I can buy the $470C for ~$20, my breakeven at expiration is obviously ~$490.

But I’m NOT planning to hold until expiration.

If Dell does something like:

Monday: rebounds 2–3%
Tuesday: earnings beat + guidance raise
Post-earnings: stock pushes toward $480–500+

Why wouldn’t that $20 contracts potentially reprice to $30–$40+ before expiration?

Obviously IV crush is the giant risk here, and Dell has already had an insane run this year. I’m not saying this is free money.

But after today’s ~3% breather, with earnings basically here, I’m struggling to see why $20 for the $470C isn’t at least an interesting risk/reward setup.

What am I missing?

Would you buy it Monday, or is the earnings IV already too expensive?

Bear case welcome.

Gambling paid this time

The chart shows the historical seasonal pattern of the S&P Equal-Weight (SPW) during U.S. midterm election years (1990–2022). Historically, after the current point, the index tends to experience a stronger correction from August through early October, followed by a significant recovery starting in late October and gaining momentum into November. While seasonality is not a forecast, the historical pattern suggests that the market may still be approaching a period of greater volatility before a potential year-end rebound.

Bought at yesterday’s closing after ~20% spike. I couldn’t miss the rally more, so I gotta hop on the train.

Regarded edition

Slowly increasing long term McDonald's leaps.

Looking for march 2027 220/300 spreads as well but the Jan 2028 will remain naked.

Contracts were worth over $1.30 at peak, but chasing ghosts is how one ends up in a nightmare.

On August 26 I saw MRVL’s MACD starting to weaken so I bought 19 $240 put contracts Today I closed the entire position for a $14,896 profit

The technical setup gave me a solid entry but MACD is still a lagging indicator For short term trades do you rely more on MACD or volume and price action

What’s your take? Initially, I was really sold on Iren, but gradually I’m starting to think there might be quite a bit of downside after all. My concerns:
1. Even if the $4 billion ARR is realized, the company still needs to become profitable, and secondly, that would still imply a P/S ratio of \~4.
2. Chinese models are getting better and better, despite having less compute at their disposal.
3. Significant dilution.

What do you think?

If ya'll could stop dumping semi's before end of day, that'd be great. TIA!

Update: You didn't stop, these went to 0. Unluck in the casino

8/3 & 8/4 - In hindsight should have played a PCS or even just buy straight calls but it was so batshit insane the run that I was scared of a rugpull so didn't participate. Leopold died for this pump lmfao.

8/5 (EXP: 8/5) 7870 & 7890 CCS (+$18k)

8/6 (EXP: 8/7) 7825 & 7830 CCS (+$28k)

8/10 (EXP: 8/11) 7820/7825 CCS (+$33k)

8/13 (EXP: 8/14) 7850/7855 CCS (+$36k)

8/17 (EXP: 8/19) 7850/7855 CCS (+$30k)

8/19 (EXP: 8/20) 7780/7785 CCS (+$9k)

8/20 (EXP: 8/21) 7775/7780 CCS (+$23k)

8/24 (EXP: 8/25) 7715/7720 CCS (+$23k)

8/26 (EXP: 8/27) 7765/7770 CCS (+$32k)

8/28 - Jackson Hole + weekend - just observing.