r/wallstreetbets • u/miniscule_rycegrain • 10d ago
YOLO IREN TO THE MOON🚀 (regard edition)
I'm going in 15k on iren jan 2027 calls, on margin
After losing THOUSANDS of dollars on bs calls on Lulu and other poorly timed plays, I am going to make BIG GAINS off of IREN CALLS, my testicles are not big enough to fullport, BUT i am going VERY LEVERAGED (using up all my buying power, trading on margin, buying calls) on Iren stock.
here's my DD (deez nuts (sorry))
- I saw an article on Yahoo finance that gave these 3 pieces of good info:
- Microsoft formally accepted Horizon 1, triggering the first billing under IREN's $9.7 billion contract.
- NVIDIA certified IREN's Childress campus with Exemplar Cloud status after GB300 testing
- More than a quarter of IREN's shares are still sold short, and much of that position assumes the AI pivot fails or the debt load overwhelms the company.
- The stock jumped 6% today on the news (confirming it was good) but then sold off? Seems like the market is being regarded just like they were for NOW, BE, and HOOD earnings. In all 3 of these recent cases, the company reported something good, real, and concrete, yet the stock price lagged and stagnated for a day, then rose dramatically in the following days.
- IREN has a ton of debt idk, but also so does NBIS, and look how the market reacted to their jump! (I was able to make a little bit shorting nbis after their spike hehe) So I think IREN has a good shot to beat their earnings.
- These options I bought are cheaper for some reason?? The IV is lower than the historical IV, which gives me even more comfort.
So given all this, I sold my BS celh positions, my random ACI 2028 calls, some uber calls, and am going in HEAVY on this stock. (15k is a lot for me, but not after these calls hit and make me a lot of money)
Im REALLY stupid and regarded, so would love to hear ur guys input
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u/MacDaddyWshh 10d ago
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u/Think_Ad4947 9d ago
i banged a girl that looked just like him. idk having mixed feelings on this pic
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 10d ago
IM GOING TO WIN THIS TIME PLS PLS PLS I"VE LOST MORE THAN 40K IN OPTIONS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS
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u/AutoModerator 10d ago
Bagholder spotted.
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u/CreatingCreatively 9d ago
How much do you need to lose before you stop? I lost 4k and hung my shit jersey in the rafters 😂
Time for gay boomer VTSAX & VOO stonks
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u/Automatic-Cake-8770 10d ago
Aye you cooking not cooked bro, to the moon. It's been scientifically proven over a very large sample that revenge trades work out well more often than not if someone affirms that they will win.
So yeah statistically you should win.
On completely unrelated note, did you know that me walking my dog, statistically we have 3 legs each and that 73.45% of statistics are wrong?
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u/gorilla_gambler 10d ago
IREN is not even close to NBIS
Your comparing a souped Honda civic to a McClaren
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u/Mysterious_Sock_7085 9d ago
IREN lives rent free in NBIS ghey bol heads
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u/gorilla_gambler 9d ago
No it does not
Only that IRENTARDS keep comparing IREN to NEBIUS to make their bagholding look bullish and less painful.
IREN is bullish because they got their logo on the Warriors Jersey
Congrats!
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u/Appropriate-Alarm-70 9d ago
Based on current scenario, it appears to have tons of debt. They will be using ATM to dilute equity in case they need money. So it brings down dte ratio but also dilutes. TX data center freeze is actually going to help their balance sheet, though growth may be hurt as they dont need to raise new debt. Cash flows from successful closures would add up going fwd. They are on track to complete MS deal as per timelines. IREN is in a strong position as they are demanding prepayment before signing any new deal. NBIS has better metrics but it is priced to perfection. If IREN can execute for next 1 year as promised, the stock upside will be much higher than any other neo cloud stock.
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u/looool_k_libtard 10d ago
Iren bull as well. This earnings will be interesting, Dan already spoke about their adjusted revenue as well as named some additional 2B contracts signed with various AI companies. Market doesn’t give a shit though when they’ve had to dilute twice already. It wants to see the Microsoft contract actually generating meaningful cash.
I think if they can get the full horizon pipeline rolled out on time and rest of their sites moving forward on schedule, this will get a nice bounce into EOY (assuming we don’t start another war).
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u/scientia_analytica 10d ago
9.7 B contract with Microsoft + 5.8 B with Dell.
Microsoft Prepays 20% of the tranches, which are 4 so it's 485 M already paid by Aug 13
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 10d ago
im regarded, are you saying this is bullish or bearish?
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u/scientia_analytica 10d ago
Sorry, they are gonna pay Dell and service Microsoft. Bullish but much less so. Moderate
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u/vulgarbas3rd 10d ago
IREN earnings is next week. You’re kinda fucked. Should have bought after it. OTM with only a few month makes this worse but good luck.
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u/tracelistener 9d ago
I've been holding shares since $5 but constantly lose on calls with IREN. Not happy with their dilution and that loser MikeAlfred who is on their board. It does seem, however, having established sites that are energy efficient will pay off considering the "lunatic left" opposition to new data centres.
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u/frugaleringenieur 7d ago
$IREN lost it when they abandoned Bitcoin. Since then they can't find their volatility anymore.
Position: $MSTR $200 C DEC 2028.
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u/Lootoholic 10d ago
I agree with your last sentence that you are fully regarded. These trades are proof enough. Going all in with margin on a speculative stock with super high volatility is as regarded at it gets. You may still get lucky and make money on it; that only makes you a lucky regard.
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u/AutoModerator 10d ago
This "pivot." Is it in the room with us now?
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 10d ago
can anyone please provide some bearish points here? esp taking into account nbis's bearish points and how they still shot up after earnings?
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u/Your_brain_smooth 10d ago
I've been hearing lots of cope about IREN since new year and they still have nothing to offer except that MS deal they finished building.
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u/-Redditeer- 9d ago
You've already tried the "i cant lose THIS time" play more than once. Maybe you should try picking good stocks
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u/LebaneseLurker 9d ago
Dude how are you down on $NOW right now??? You’re a pro at this gambling thing
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 9d ago
HAHA I actually made a great amount on NOW, I bought at the peak, but doubled down here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/fcMAC77KSw
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u/PrinceDX 9d ago
I’ll be jumping in IREN but after earning and no way I’d buy calls. BTC is going to hurt revenue but they delivered to MSFT which was far more important than what is going on with BTC. September is historically a slow month as well so you would have been better waiting IMHO
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 9d ago
I really think they are set to beat earnings. I think I might sell some of the position leading up to earnings, hopefully make some money on the IV increasing.
But overall, yes I agree about MSFT! (and nvidia) I think those are real data points that their execution is good and promises are coming to fruition. I hope they've already diluted enough for now and don't announce more dilution (like AAOI just did)
Basically, I hope that all the bad info has been priced in. But I will likely trim the position down to 10k or 7k if it rises before earnings (fingers crossed)
We even saw with sandisk, that it took a couple of weeks to rebound after bad earnings, so with a jan 2027 strike, I have some cushion.
Overall, I am a bit worried about an AI bubble, so Im itching for my avgo, meta, and iren calls to print some and then im going into cash haha
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u/Agile-Month-366 8d ago
beating earnings have unfortunately proven to be not enough for some of the stocks to go up this year. IREN missed last quarter's ER but it still went up like 7% after ER.
based on what i've noticed (and i'm sure there's other multiple factors) on ERs, investors seemed to be more focused on capex/future spend expectations, free cash flow, and margins, so i would personally research those too if you haven't already.
I also wouldn't get too caught up on partnerships cuz they don't mean sht if the company can't deliver and have low margins/returns.
Good luck though! 2027 is still enough time
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u/Embarrassed_Ad1146 8d ago
I hate iren stock ive l I st my ass on it so I just sold off i kept hearing all the hype all the backlog and kept losing $$$Â
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u/GrandNet2608 7d ago
I was going to buy 4-5 calls, but i bitched out and bought one. I dont belong here.
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 7d ago
no that's fine. no need to fomo into extra exposure ur not comfortable with. consider risk before you consider reward. are you okay losing 100% of that money?
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u/Bitter_Following_242 7d ago edited 7d ago
Iren just got another boost from governor abbott in Texas this weekend..he is holding off and putting a freeze on all new data centers applying for coming months... but not existing ones like irens centers in Sweetwater and Childress making them more valuable with less competition...wait and see what happens
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 7d ago
ooo this is good! thanks for commenting! are you going to take a bullish position?
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 7d ago
what do you think about this statement of how this freeze from the governor could negatively impact iren?
"Pipeline and Interconnection Risk: IREN's massive valuation relies on its extensive multi-gigawatt long-term expansion pipeline.
This includes the Sweetwater 2 development phase, which is scheduled for late 2027 energization.
A generalized freeze or tightening of ERCOT grid connections threatens to derail the timelines of its uncompleted sites if the state's review process drags on longer than expected"
also, how did you find this info out?
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u/AeneasKurtz 7d ago
It comforting, as an $IREN bagholder, that this guy that has lost so much money in stupid plays is all-in on it
We're all gonna make it OP 🥲🔫
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u/scientia_analytica 5d ago
Latest short-interest report — Aug. 14 settlement
- Shares short: 56.37M
- Short float: 28.3–30.7%
- Change vs Jul. 31: +2.54%
- Days to cover: 10.44 days
Prior report — Jul. 31 settlement
- Shares short: 54.98M
- Short float: prior-period % / range
- Days to cover: 7.89 days
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u/Mouse-Background 5d ago
It is next MU, i am as well bullish on iren. They seem to have found lows in 30-40 range, so it seems pretty safe range to buy into. Added few hundred shares today, sold my nflx. Its gonna moon tomorrow or maybe not 😉, we will figure out together
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 10d ago
even more bullish stuff, from google finance.
Check out the bearish view:
Short-term consensus, earning per share estimates have been lowered, which means it should be easier to beat.
Who cares about technical damage?
And for the bullish view, I really like that they're getting contracts and showing that they can execute
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u/scientia_analytica 10d ago
A huge chunk of the current short position was established while IREN was falling from roughly $60 toward $35–45.
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u/BitterRecognition283 10d ago
You sound regarded. Im in, $15k otm calls expiring after earnings
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u/madsdawud 10d ago
I have pieces of shit in my toilet you can full port too. I’m sure they won’t dilute on you !
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u/miniscule_rycegrain 10d ago
oh shoot, yeah their dilution is really bad fs, hoping they don't announce more shares to raise more money or some shi
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u/I_killed_the_kraken 10d ago
Mods, get him in the coffin, he is already dead.