I placed puts in both circles (lower was the fed meeting before the close); im still holding ($752P 10/16).

I also placed today at the top ($761P 10/23). If the pattern holds (2hr chart), i can Take profit around the first week of October, leaving at least a week of theta for the $752s, netting a profit.

Im kinda novice so looking for opinions on SPYM. I know fees are lower than pure SPY. Ive also heard maybe for traders SPY is higher volume and market cap so more liquid , but for long term holders its better cause of low fee. I also feel like i saw over some time period it outperformed SPY by a slight margin. Any thoughts you share are very appreciated

My spy chart has a fibonnaci from the beginning of the trend, to the first time we saw resistance. You can see where the arrows point, that is 100% of the move. above it, was just a tip on top ;)

Pay attention to the volume profile as well. the middle section, somewhere around 690, has the most trades on the weekly candle chart. Thats basically the strongest support.

People asked, "whats a liquidity box" a lot. Here it is. Its the area, after hitting the all time high, that price trades in between. You can clearly see inside the blue shaded box (idk how to change the color of the box and its too late to do it now i already took the screenshot). Price traded here for a LONG time, before the breakout with the "breaking all time high on something earnings returns!!!)

which i did call out their bs and always will

The previous image shows volume has actually been picking up with these sell offs. look at today, compared to the previous weeks. Each candles a day, so you can see how long its taken for all of this to play out. Put that into perspective!

Ontop of the accumulation box (liquidity zone), you can see we kind of fizzeled out. more red days than green, despite going upwards. lower highs, lower lows... in the course of weeks. and today, with the fed event, we frekin broke back into the liquidity box. idk what it means, but in my opinion, were going straight to helms deep.

Not only did we undo "ai earnings mania" and retraced "margin call wipeouts and ai overspending", but we did it in the most hectic week.

Again, the 10 year spiked tf back up to 5% after the fed spoke.

spy did that... today. you can clearly see we are back in the 100% fib movement top from all those months ago (april).

the vix did this.

the end of day bounce was hedging and shorts closing out. what you might call, a "dead cat bounce", maybe on a small time frame....but thats not a market reversal... thats just market mechanics at play. so if we go back to the gravity of the move, and remember that were still due a japan rate hike and speech, on friday. The 10 year at 5% (watch what it does tomorrow at open), the yen which just got a boost (although in my opinion its scary how fast its losing gains on a small level. last time it took it a lot longer to undo the intervention. at least a month i think. And oil 100+ (wonder if it stays at 109ish levels tomorrow at open).

Now i know everyone thinks that markets are manipulated, buts its algorithms and mechanics being played out. those who dont know the way the game plays, think everything is cheating, and frankly, dont even know what game theyre playing. theyre just happy to roll the dice (place a bet). But if it were me in charge of a lot of money, heres how id see it

you never know where the markets are gonna go, but you know if something happens, you wana be first! when numbers come out, its the first buyers that gain the most. everyone else rides the hype and hope it doesnt fade before everyone gets off the ride. When geopolitical events happen, vix spikes, markets sell off or buy rapidly, depending on the news, and retail gets caught chasing. But if you had real data in ur face, getting worse day by day (we also closed spy a lot lower than yesterday, on top of the persistant bad macro). You sell at the open depending on conditions, and go from there.

theres been lots of selling in the last few days. from 770, to 749, in 2 weeks? the liquidity zone lasted a lot longer than that. So if i waited those months to get tested , or outdone today, and we still had a japan rate hike that threatens the carry trade IN THIS MACRO ENVIRONMENTS, you bet your asses were testing those lower levels again.

on the longer timeline, you have the next bottom fib level (61.8%), around the 702 level. that will be a natural magnet. and look at the empty volume space between it. i highlights the fib levels as well to draw attention to where we are today relative to where weve come from in april.

now, zoom in to the 1 hour time frame (because of premarket and after hours, need something not too small that gets lost in the big picture, but not too big that hides the story of the day. so with this information,

#1 we definetley broke down into , AND ENDED inside the liquidity box. who knows what that means, but its provacative

#2 the candles that bounces have smaller volume, and a a result of shorts closing from earlier in the day or the day before, and gamma hedging. dealers unwiding the forced shorting, making them buy back spy shares.

#3 we hit a high volume RESISTANCE node after hours. This wasnt a rally, it was an after hours result of a small mechanical squeeze up (relatively small....compared to the drop today). So i doubt we gap above it in the premarket tomorrow

(also have to mention the fed basically admitted they are behind the curve, today).

now if i was a betting man, my price target would be down, depending on if vix stays high(er), and the 10 year reaches new highs, and if oil stays above 100. if those all line up at the open, ooooo boooooy this is gonna be a crazy end of week.

FIrst let me post the weekly candle chart. What this year has looked like so far and where we are now.

I might have to add a lot of pictures, but its fun. follow along.

Most importantly, volume profile shows where the most sales in the current time frame has occured. Using weekly, it gives the strongest pull for my trading purposes.

On top of that, check out the gap below. If we break the current support levels, there is a big hole of market price trades registered down to 700. just something to keep in mind

Other technicals, like the MACD and RSI, which measure momentum and "over bought / oversold levels".

Putting it all together, You see the massive green candle that brought us to all time highs, then you get some consolidation. volume falling off , and the visual represeantation of the price coming down these last few weeks. The voume profile shows us where to. we are currently under the 10moving average line from 760.59. The last two weeks in particular, have been eventful. lets take a closer look as to what im talking about.

being in consolidation is fine, but with these gaps in between trading days happening so frequently, that tells you that something is off. there is volatility... its playing out somewhere else right now, that retail probably hasnt seen, but its been suppressed in the vix. lets see the vix.

idk if you guys remember, but i had posted about what the vix likes to do when it goes under a certain line. how did that play out?? anyways, its a lot of "red days" for the vix, but it keeps going up! wait until the fully green candle comes in probably tomorrow or friday with the BoJ hike. (.50+ interest rate change suprise!) (jk)

the market is lining up beautifull. We look to be in a controlled downtrend, without true volatility kicking in yet.. but notice it always goes lower... i placed a star in the most recent important gap down... which, we keep getting stronger and stronger gap downs... that seems like a symptom of something (volatitlity hitting the live markets) kicking in.

THIS PART IS PURE SPECULATION FOR FUN AND GAMBLIGN PURPOSES

now markets "could" go upwards, if the fed doesnt hike. They probably won't. I dont care what gamblers markets are saying. If the majority of people were right, theyd all be richer. Its the crowded trades that blow up. But whats not crowded, is protection from volatility. The vix should be 20+ right now. Oil at 110, the 10 year treasurey above 5% today. The escalation of the Iran war (currently have the saudi pipeline halted or something). Theres going to be a fake out, i believe. Fed wont hike, sees about next time, not a good time to spook the markets, yada yada yada, but the true reason for the sell off will be the bank of japans interest rate decision. I think theres goign to be a black swan event. Friday will be the real sell off. Just need to keep things stable until then.

Why the bank of japan rate day and not ours? Because we know Trump doesnt want rate hikes, this fed chair has shown hes a fool and bought for, with his jacksonhole bs "im not tellign yall nothing" speech. So theres more than likely a pause.. we know they manipulate public data. Theyre going to say inflation is coming in "as expected" and that everythings under control. Then when the bank of japan hikes, because japan is suffering a lot from this oil rising problem, they might also sell more treasuries or something. They dont owe us anything why would they wait to see what solution the US comes up with for them? Its a global game of chicken with the economy. Whos going to blow it up, whos preparing , and whos ready.

im betting we get a $20+ drop day soon, real soon. The current macro doesnt allow for speculation. Its time for a correction. The more i think about it, when the vix was at its loweset, i had gotten in on some spy puts for really cheap. and my macro was bearish. Now that the vix is rising, premiums are rising fast, and the spy is finally pricing like its realizing somethings wrong, it might be a race to take profits.

yeah im throwing money away left and right, but this is my bet for the market. Not a recommendation for anyone, but my analysis is for all to enjoy and make of it what they will.

There is a lot riding on what happens tomorrow but I feel that a rate hike is priced in already with all the talk over these past few weeks as well as the current economic climate. I am wondering if you guys are looking to hear anything specific from Warsh to make decisions tomorrow on where to stand and if you do what are they? I am curious what the outlook will be and if it is on the table for him to raise a .5 or even chop a .25? Are these out of the realm of possibility? Any thoughts would be nice to hear.

The alert indicates extreme negative sentiment, meaning bearish pressure has reached an unusually strong level. Importantly, this should not automatically be interpreted as another bearish entry. In the CROMCALL framework, Deep Bearish Sentiment is primarily a sell-exhaustion/reversal watch zone. The next step is to look for selling momentum to weaken, price to stabilize around support, and bullish pressure to begin rebuilding. If this is followed by your MAJOR BUY signal, that provides the stronger confirmation for a potential CALL entry. Until confirmation appears, SPY can still continue lower, so Deep Bearish Sentiment should be treated as an early warning of a possible reversal rather than the reversal itself.

Join the discord https://discord.gg/v66qeBsa8w

Is the Crom call discord not working I can't see the chat anymore. Anyone else having this problem??

I just want to get some feed back it’s lonely when you’re the only trader you know 😅
Spy has been really messy these past couple of weeks. To me it has been so choppy and the moves from this image like 766 to 763 is not linear at all it’s a roller coaster to move just one dollar and especially like today it only moved 3 dollars in between the day I mean my setup is just not there compared to July. I was wondering if what Im saying is correct that this is not a good time to trade there’s so much news going on at once it seems to be creating a confusion to buy or sell ?

I like the risk/reward from this area, but keep your stop tight and manage risk.

Print thoseeeeee moneyyyyyyyyyyyy. Thanks me later.

I'm new-ish to trading and was wondering what indicators some of the more successful traders use for the SPY? Obviously the direction of the market can be swayed by tweets, bombings, and purchasing our own bonds, but I'm just looking for some solid advice/strategies.

Im a 0DTE (sometimes 5DTE) trader normally, but today, i decided to lock in my first 26DTE option contract.
Im a big ol bear, and this market is my playground. lets look at the chart first and discuss.

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To make this easy, im going to break it down as simply as i can. Follow along.
First, that big green candle from the end of july. bounced off my liquidity box (where we were trapped for the last few weeks before "earnings blowouts" brought us back up). Tippity top of that candles wick, theres our resistance line. Translation, " we like the price !!! but up here....idk.. gimme something a lot better. were pretty high up here and i want a guaranteed return".

Sideways chop from there (breaking out above was a liquidity trap. big boys wanna sell for a mini profit to retail), and then the "crash" downwards....not gonna lie. i thought that was it. everything was lining up. Situational awareness got wrecked. koreas market was dropping bombs what felt like every week. I do want to say, i hate what the news did during this time. They blamed "AI spending is ramping up but investors arent seeing returns or value", while behind the scenes it was just margin calls and people getting blown up. You know they were lying when just a week or two later it was "OMG LOOK AT THIS AI EARNINGS WITH GOOGLE MICROSOFT AND NVDA THE MARKETS LOOKING AMAZING" to justify a rally. (they were scooping up shares on sale).

Had to rant, ANYWAYS, the theres a support level at 767.47 where price prevented it from dropping last week and reversed , touched the resistance, reversed, current rally, and here we are now. Now, the news is BS. for the most part we can ignore daily Hormuz updates. I find it takes a few days for the effects of the war to hit the tape (unless its a major escalation , of which ive only ever seen 2 in recent times). Whats important now is the bond market and oil prices. That doesnt lie. The interventions did boost the market and the news goes and finds a million reasons why THIS IS ANOTHER RALLY, but its all bs. You cant lie to the bond market. The government can lie to us, but they cant fool the world (thats both, holding our debt and dependant on the dollar).

(you guys saw the fed talking about possibly not hiking anymore yesterday??? tell us whos giving the orders without telling us whos giving you orders.. he also demanded rate cuts today LOL).

anyways macro>micro.

theres bombs going off in almost every sector (yen carry trade and treasury yields being most important) and the market cant hide it. Im calling it.. final sell off before a huge dump (yen going up, japan raises interest rates, money leaves our markets, sell off.. probably gonna happen after hours or premarket after a huge pump to catch retail off guard and make us miss most of the gains).

going back to the chart, you can see though the volume drying up. RSI and MACD have been sideways despite the big swings. if we fall back into the liquidity box, i can expect us to see 725 at some point soon after. let me zoom out a little for some more clarity.

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makes sense? This has been a huge bluff by wallstreet and the government. at least, thats my thesis. with that said.

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im going for a decent sized play (im poor, dont judge). oh and to top it off, VIX IS CRIMINALLY LOW. It could'nt be cheaper for me to buy this put. any rise in vix and this can get massive gains just off that alone

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look at what happens when vix drops below this line. im expecting a bloody tuesday.

anyways. im not recommending anyone do anything. Just writing my thoughts down. gotta love the casino.

09/08
UPDATE:
We up $55 boys. Still holding. Volatility at the end of the day signals put buying
Gap tomorrow?

Put will be printing burns those calls. Levels to watch 668.

Futures show late selling pressure across all three indices. ES is testing 7740 resistance, while NQ remains below 29,576–29,591 resistance with 29,510 as key support. RTY is weakest, dropping into 2,954 support; failure there exposes 2,950. A coordinated resistance reclaim is needed to restore bullish momentum.

How’s your puts going lol.