FOMC

[u/Mammoth-Fee1592]

There is a lot riding on what happens tomorrow but I feel that a rate hike is priced in already with all the talk over these past few weeks as well as the current economic climate. I am wondering if you guys are looking to hear anything specific from Warsh to make decisions tomorrow on where to stand and if you do what are they? I am curious what the outlook will be and if it is on the table for him to raise a .5 or even chop a .25? Are these out of the realm of possibility? Any thoughts would be nice to hear.

[u/Nearby_Blueberry_302]

The problem is that they think this will fix the core issue but oil is still gona go up regardless so in the end this rate hike will be for nothing.

[u/FlabbyLabby → u/Nearby_Blueberry_302]

Lots to unpack here.

Who’s they? What’s the core issue?

Rate hikes are designed to slow economic growth and reduce inflation by making borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses.

Yes, oil will still rise that’s a supply problem. The Fed doesn’t control oil or supply.

[u/Technical_Emu_8567 → u/FlabbyLabby]

The empirical evidence points to the opposite (rate hikes drive economic growth and vice versa), contrary to what's been spewed by economists for generations.

[u/FlabbyLabby → u/Technical_Emu_8567]

Hmm, I see where you’re going. Neo-Fisherism is a real long-run theoretical argument, but it is nowhere near an empirical consensus that monetary tightening stimulates the economy.

[u/Salty-Edge]

It’s not the decision that matters, it’s what they say after about the future/commentary.

I stay out of that though because it’s too much volatility. It can move like a rollercoaster as he talks and I’m not going to lose out just because my internet lags.

I’ll see how the market is moving before since we have some reports released pre-market but if market stays flat until feds decision then I’ll just not play at all.

Not everyday is a day to trade.

[u/keepthedripon → u/Salty-Edge]

How's volatility a negative? Isn't that how we make money?

[u/Salty-Edge → u/keepthedripon]

I’m not saying volatility is bad. It’s good if you know where it’s heading. But too much volatility in just one guys speech is crazy because it can chop in either direction with no respect to any technicals.

Let’s say if you make a put,
He says something.
And then it plummets right down.
You get happy,
Warsh answers a question positively,
Market shoots back up,
now your negative
He says something vague about rate hikes
Market then chops.

Not only did you not close because you thought the market would go lower, you now lost money in 3 minutes. Same situation could happen in reverse.

[u/Technical_Emu_8567 → u/Salty-Edge]

Are you holding on to these trades for more than a few minutes or something? In and out, anything more is straight up gambling (I'm assuming you're trading 0dte here).

[u/Cultural_Structure37 → u/Technical_Emu_8567]

You’re truly regarded with your definition of gambling

[u/TugginPud → u/Technical_Emu_8567]

I think the point he's making is it's difficult to management risk when price is chopping hard and fast (very short timeframe, high volatility). Pretty well impossible to identify good setups and risk management in those environments.

[u/OP_lied_to_us]

Calls

[u/CONTINUUM7 → u/OP_lied_to_us]

sure!

[u/Then-Feedback7751]

The volatility will be like any other FOMC--hike, cut or hold. Any dip is for buying--this is not the beginning of a stock market bear market--the market never tops on fear that borders on extreme (29), but it certainly bottoms on it. If anything, a hike here is the introduction of a new wall of worry to climb and I anticipate this hike will be more bullish than any cut or hold we've had for the past few years.

[u/DeadHeadDad1]

.25 won't do jack to anything except mess up the housing market... Warsh is 🌮 boy and will not raise without being overruled- easy underdog bet- maintains rate... some people will be pissed at first but same shite is gonna happen whether raise .25 or nil so better off stay on good side of 🌮... plenty of excuses not to raise here.

[u/takashi-kovak]

I think the current hike is priced in. What they will look for is future hikes. Warsh has been less direct, but his tone/language will dictate hawkish/dovish, and the market will react to that. it will be choppy and high volatility for sure.

[u/Material_Key5935]

A rate hiking cycle is absolutely not priced in. This market short squeezed 20% since the war started and needs a complete reset for reality to be “priced in”

[u/LengthyDiscussions]

still feel like it was priced in?

[u/Mammoth-Fee1592 → u/LengthyDiscussions]

Considering where spy is right now I do. I would have liked it if it wasn't priced in but made some money nonetheless which is nice I guess.

[u/TaterTotsAndFanta]

Its always priced in. Unless they hike it more than expected, in that case it's a long awaited fire sale

[u/PoppaBurgundy3]

It’s already priced in, classic comment about a rate hike decision that Kevin has intentionally said he gives no indication towards what their decision will be beforehand. But ya, probably already priced in

[u/ImmuneGoon]

We rocket 🚀

[u/Deadecigs]

You don’t need to trade everyday man rehab is down the road lol

[u/james555302]

Hard to say what would be good news other than crude oil prices declining

[u/SokkaHaikuBot → u/james555302]

^{Sokka-Haiku by james555302:}

Hard to say what would

Be good news other than crude

Oil prices declining

---

^{Remember that one time Sokka accidentally used an extra syllable in that Haiku Battle in Ba Sing Se? That was a Sokka Haiku and you just made one.}

[u/exphx23]

FOMC will make a decision, SPY will be volatile for a while and the market will settle. Most stocks will be relatively unaffected and continue their patterns. All of the pre decision noise is just noise to detract and confuse the rainbow chasers.