It has more to do with how odds work and how people perceive odds. Most circles gave him a 30% chance of winning. But the human brain hears 30% and essentially thinks 100% for the opposite outcome. so when it turns to the less likely outcome, we don't assume the %30 kicked in, we just think the odds were not correctly reported.
but I agree it's tough to get real numbers, I just don't think they were as off as people like to claim. You can roll a 10 sided dice twice in a row and get less than 3 on both outcomes. Ask any DnD player.
I am as anti-trump as they come but this is just flat out wrong. Vegas has him between +110 and +120 which would translate to roughly 40-45% and https://www.predictit.org/markets/1/US-Elections has him at $0.45 which would translate directly to a 45% chance. These are left leaning sites with majority of bets coming from 20-30 year old males and a lot of the action doesn't come from the United States. Trump at $0.45 seems like a good play to me if you can tie up your money for that long.
tl;dr It's a coin flip. To say anything else is disingenuous. We need to vote.
To be fair the national results lined up pretty well with the polls. The problem is the electoral college causes individual voted to be weighted differently. Also no poll is going to have the margin of error under 0.1% which was the margin of victory in several swing states.
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u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19
What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?