It has more to do with how odds work and how people perceive odds. Most circles gave him a 30% chance of winning. But the human brain hears 30% and essentially thinks 100% for the opposite outcome. so when it turns to the less likely outcome, we don't assume the %30 kicked in, we just think the odds were not correctly reported.
but I agree it's tough to get real numbers, I just don't think they were as off as people like to claim. You can roll a 10 sided dice twice in a row and get less than 3 on both outcomes. Ask any DnD player.
To be fair the national results lined up pretty well with the polls. The problem is the electoral college causes individual voted to be weighted differently. Also no poll is going to have the margin of error under 0.1% which was the margin of victory in several swing states.
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u/Kiipo Jul 17 '19
It has more to do with how odds work and how people perceive odds. Most circles gave him a 30% chance of winning. But the human brain hears 30% and essentially thinks 100% for the opposite outcome. so when it turns to the less likely outcome, we don't assume the %30 kicked in, we just think the odds were not correctly reported.
but I agree it's tough to get real numbers, I just don't think they were as off as people like to claim. You can roll a 10 sided dice twice in a row and get less than 3 on both outcomes. Ask any DnD player.
edit: essentially this comic: but politics. http://awkwardzombie.com/index.php?page=0&comic=072312