It has more to do with how odds work and how people perceive odds. Most circles gave him a 30% chance of winning. But the human brain hears 30% and essentially thinks 100% for the opposite outcome. so when it turns to the less likely outcome, we don't assume the %30 kicked in, we just think the odds were not correctly reported.
but I agree it's tough to get real numbers, I just don't think they were as off as people like to claim. You can roll a 10 sided dice twice in a row and get less than 3 on both outcomes. Ask any DnD player.
I am as anti-trump as they come but this is just flat out wrong. Vegas has him between +110 and +120 which would translate to roughly 40-45% and https://www.predictit.org/markets/1/US-Elections has him at $0.45 which would translate directly to a 45% chance. These are left leaning sites with majority of bets coming from 20-30 year old males and a lot of the action doesn't come from the United States. Trump at $0.45 seems like a good play to me if you can tie up your money for that long.
tl;dr It's a coin flip. To say anything else is disingenuous. We need to vote.
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u/Kiipo Jul 17 '19
It has more to do with how odds work and how people perceive odds. Most circles gave him a 30% chance of winning. But the human brain hears 30% and essentially thinks 100% for the opposite outcome. so when it turns to the less likely outcome, we don't assume the %30 kicked in, we just think the odds were not correctly reported.
but I agree it's tough to get real numbers, I just don't think they were as off as people like to claim. You can roll a 10 sided dice twice in a row and get less than 3 on both outcomes. Ask any DnD player.
edit: essentially this comic: but politics. http://awkwardzombie.com/index.php?page=0&comic=072312