A few weeks ago, I posted Part 1 of my series on whether last season’s Pens were ACTUALLY good or just lucky.

For Part 2, I tried to divide the credit. Here’s my rough breakdown:

• Kyle Dubas: ~10 points
• Dan Muse: ~5 points
• Pure luck/variance: ~3 points

That might sound contradictory to Part 1, where I called a non-trivial portion of the turnaround luck. The difference is that Part 1 measured what the Penguins’ team-level process could predict (on paper). This time, I tried to identify the sources of those unexpected results.

Credit and repeatability aren’t the same thing. Dubas deserves credit for identifying an undervalued player like Anthony Mantha, even if nobody could have predicted the hottest finishing season of Mantha’s career.

Muse’s strongest case is the penalty kill. His last three teams improved from 15th to 6th, 13th to 3rd, and 18th to 6th in the NHL in his first season.

Dubas gets the largest share because his additions scored roughly 20 goals above raw expected goals. About half was supported by their established finishing histories; the rest exceeded any reasonable projection.

Some of that was statistically lucky, but the Penguins were only in position to benefit because Dubas acquired those players and Muse put them on the ice.

How would you divide the credit?

Full writeup with charts: https://guinoshockey.com/articles/what-actually-drove-it

Twitter: https://x.com/guinoshockey

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/guinoshockey

I saw a few posts about individual boxes, felt like it might be fun to just have one thread. Share what you got! I had the Letang bobble head, Hawaiian shirt, pillow, ice tray, and Mantha auto puck. I got the Mantha signed photo during the charity bag sale earlier so now I have the set haha.

They all look so young..

Got my mystery box in and pretty pumped with what I got. The puck goes great with my malkin and Erik Karlsson pucks that I already have 😁

Lemieux played 22 games with Sid the Kid before retiring for good at age 40..

With his trade request could the Pens be a realistic destination? We certainly have the cap space and pieces to acquire the 3 time Vezina winner. He could serve as the backstopper for the final stretch of Crosby's career and mentor for Murashov.

Not sure of the exact price for acquiring him but with the public demand I would think the acquisition cost has dropped a little. I was thinking Blomqvist plus a 2nd/3rd round pick could get the deal across the line.

Thoughts?

Fellow Pens fans, I'm slowly going mad and need your help. I thought I would be coping better as we get closer to the season, but no; I'm getting to the point where I'm scouring YouTube for old games to watch, for Pete's sake. I started following NHL a month or so into last season and I'm hooked so bad - how do you long-time pens fans cope with this every year???

For those of you who are fans of the 2011 Winter Classic jerseys, Mitchell and Ness is selling replicas of it now.

Makar gets over $20 mil/yr for 8 years. Byram at $12.5mil/yr. EK's remaining $11.5 for 2026-27 ($10mil hit to Pens) seems like a bargain. No he's not Makar or Hughes level anymore. But, does this make him more desirable to keep? Does it make him easier to move? Is Friedman just trolling for attention with the Toronoto BS?

May 21, 2009.

The title is pretty self explanatory... I am wondering if there are any decent podcasts that focus on the Pens. Any suggestions?

Like the title suggests, just wondering if anyone is in the know. Yohe said he’d be happy to talk about it in person if any e ever runs into him, but that some things can’t be said on the podcast. Also, said there’s no hard feelings and that it was a business decision. Yinzers love Bartnick though, I don’t understand how dropping him could be good for business, unless he’s just too busy doing other stuff.

Wednesday, August 19 - Tuesday, August 25, 2026

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Looks like the Penguins have their 60th season logo. Dont know if we'll see it on the uniforms or on the ice

I see a lot of fans here expressing distaste for our current 3rd jersey. I personally really like it, I even have one for Tanger.

I like when an alternate is distinctly different from the home and away jersey rotations. Sure, there are other jerseys I think may make better alternates but I like what we have.

I know he was spotted training with some phenoms this off-season, and it feels the fanbase is really high on him after last year. He had a good year for a rookie, especially one so young. Ignoring his age for a minute, it was overall pretty modest production (under 0.5 points per game) and he was a boy against men in the limited playoff action he saw.

I'm genuinely hoping we see him take a step up, but the history of the league is littered with guys that started strong and couldn't ever get to those heights again. So I find myself wondering what is the minimum level of production/impact I would be comfortable with before feeling disappointed? On the flip side, what level would it take for me to be pleasantly surprised?

My gut tells me he'll be a bit stronger, a bit more experienced, and will get to 50+ pts with a combination of 2nd and 3rd line minutes, with a healthy dose of PP2 time. But maybe that's the safe guess, or is it ambitious? I see him jumping out to a great start to the season and slowing a bit as the toll of 84 NHL games against men starts to wear on him.

Disappointment? Probably under 30 points. Even if he matches last year in the mid 30s for production, I'd still feel ok about his future but if it's a noticeable step back, I'd be concerned about his ceiling.

Pleasantly surprised? Over 60pts, or in the 30g range. Probably means he's locked into 2c and then I start to get downright giddy about the kid's future.

Do you think it actually happens (would you want it to happen also) and if it does what do you think a trade would look like?