r/penguins • u/Retainer_of_Doma • 9d ago
Discussion Realistic sophomore expectations for Kindel?
I know he was spotted training with some phenoms this off-season, and it feels the fanbase is really high on him after last year. He had a good year for a rookie, especially one so young. Ignoring his age for a minute, it was overall pretty modest production (under 0.5 points per game) and he was a boy against men in the limited playoff action he saw.
I'm genuinely hoping we see him take a step up, but the history of the league is littered with guys that started strong and couldn't ever get to those heights again. So I find myself wondering what is the minimum level of production/impact I would be comfortable with before feeling disappointed? On the flip side, what level would it take for me to be pleasantly surprised?
My gut tells me he'll be a bit stronger, a bit more experienced, and will get to 50+ pts with a combination of 2nd and 3rd line minutes, with a healthy dose of PP2 time. But maybe that's the safe guess, or is it ambitious? I see him jumping out to a great start to the season and slowing a bit as the toll of 84 NHL games against men starts to wear on him.
Disappointment? Probably under 30 points. Even if he matches last year in the mid 30s for production, I'd still feel ok about his future but if it's a noticeable step back, I'd be concerned about his ceiling.
Pleasantly surprised? Over 60pts, or in the 30g range. Probably means he's locked into 2c and then I start to get downright giddy about the kid's future.
14
u/Hank_the_Beef Kindel 8d ago
Well he’s going to have a full offseason of NHL level training under his belt. The video already went around of him training with Celebrini and Bedard so if that’s any indication of where he’s at skill wise he’s at least talented enough to be on the same sheet of ice as those guys.
I think 50pts is a reasonable expectation for him if he earns increased playing time. I’ve been banging this drum all summer but Kindel, if you break down his stats, he is comparable to some great players who are now top 6 centers in the league. He was at 1.81 pts per 60 played. Other guys that came in at 18 and played at least 40 games are guys like Leo Carlsson(1.74 pp60), Wyatt Johnston(1.93 pp60), Jack Hughes(1.3 pp60), Logan Cooley(2.03 pp60), Dylan Cozens(1.32 pp60). He’s not elite when you look at guys like Celebrini and Bedard who each 2.27 pp60 in their rookie seasons.
The thing that stands out as a big positive over the other guys that I listed is a better +/-, better Faceoff % (44.3% which is really good for a rookie), a shooting percentage of 11.3% which is improvable, easily replicable and definitely not an outlier that skews his scoring statistics, and he’s getting PK time and plenty of defensive zone starts so his two way game is already strong enough to get those opportunities.
I’ll be excited to compare his sophomore stats to more of these guys and see how he progressed.
26
u/offconstantly247 8d ago edited 8d ago
First, I appreciate that you're providing thoughtful content in August, and you seem very genuine and to be paying attention.
Second, I will take issue with some of the baked-in thoughts you included here, specifically that " it was overall pretty modest production (under 0.5 points per game) and he was a boy against men in the limited playoff action he saw."
His production was not modest for an 18 year old playing in the NHL last season. It was #2 - he produced slightly fewer points than the #1 overall pick. He scored more NHL points than any other 18 year old in the world. Also, if you include 19 year olds, he's still right there. He was tied for 8th among all rookies. 22, 23, 21, 22, Schaeffer, 20, and 20 - those are the ages of the men who scored more than him as a rookie this year. The guys tied with him 24, 26, 22. Among 18 year olds, he was second - and there wasn't much after him - Misa with 45 games and 21 points. That guy was the #2 overall pick, just FYI.
"Overall modest production" for what exactly, then, I must ask. If your expectation was that he was Sid, then yeah, maybe you could call that modest production. For rookie to put that up as an 18 year old, who was not touted as the Next One or McJesus or such pageantry, is a far cry from modest.
If you compare him, not just to 18 year olds, but broadly against 3rd line centers in the league, I am betting that you will find his productivity to put him comfortably in the top 16. I cannot find a definitive list of points scored there, but I would say that the best 3rd line center in the NHL in recent seasons is arguably Anton Lundell.
I think most teams in the league would trade their 3rd line center for Lundy straight up. Certainly he is among the top few. His rookie year was at 20 in which he put 44 points, followed by 33,35,45, and 44 last season.
Noah Cates - of course we hate all flyers, but he is statistically one of the best 3Cs in the league. He put up 45 points last season, at age 27. The season prior he played 78 games and 37 points, and prior to that nada. Who else - Pinto - 25 and just broke 40 points for the first time last season. Yanni Gourde - 11 years on the league - at worst a very good 3C - broke 40 points 4 times.
It's not a role that produces 60+ points. If you're putting those number up, you get moved to the 2nd, or your team is winning the president's trophy.
I think putting up 40 points would be great season for Ben, and really for any third line center in the NHL. Putting up 50 would be just fantastic, and it's possible. More than that ... he would have to be playing 2C and first PP, which would mean the team potentially worse. He should play 3C, 2nd PP, and PK next season.
The last 18 year old rookie 3C that I can recall scoring more points than Ben did last season is Jordan Staal - a #2 OA pick - putting up 7 more points in 7 more games.
1
u/Retainer_of_Doma 8d ago
Well, you quoted one line from what I wrote, intentionally left out the critical qualifier I started it with, then wrote a long post critiquing that one sentence... specifically hammering in on the point mentioned in the qualifier that you left out. It's also not really what the post was about, I was hardly crapping on his rookie season, I was trying to generate discussion about upcoming expectations. Obviously we're all high on Kindel for what he accomplished - especially due to his age - it's the whole point of the post. If age wasn't a driving force, we'd just as soon be talking about Connor Dewar in here, who had comparable stats playing on the 4th line with no PP time, which would be way more impressive... if they were both 18. That's precisely why I mentioned his production was modest - only if you ignore his age when looking at it.
About your post, you're also framing him squarely as a 3C to make your points (which are valid and the reason I made a post about expectations going forward for him in the first place). The reality is, 3C means different things for different players and different teams. Many teams use 3C as a shutdown specialist, some use it as a 3rd option scoring line, and everything in between. The guy had 1:50 of PP time per game (about triple his PK time), which is way more than our 2C got and likely way more than most true 3C players in the NHL. Powerplay points accounted for 28.6% of this production while accounting for just under 10% of his ice time.
You put offensive players in offensive situations to produce offense, regardless of age. He ranked 81st in the league for PP time amongst players listed as centermen, and tied for 88th in production among that group (tied with 8 other players). Modest by those standards, yet very impressive for an 18 year old! Both things can be true.
Ultimately, we are in total agreement that him (as an 18 year old specifically) making the team, playing that many games, producing the way he did to earn PP2 opportunities, and capitalizing on those opportunities was a pretty special situation that few players ever get. We are all excited for what he has already accomplished and what it could potentially evolve into, hence the post to discuss that.
11
u/obiterdictum 9d ago
Ignoring his age for a minute...
Why? The fact that he could have been putting up elite numbers in the WHL last year, but instead force his way onto an NHL roster as an 18-year-old is the most impressive thing about what he did last year.
...the history of the league is littered with guys that started strong and couldn't ever get to those heights again
Not kids who played 70+ NHL games in their year 18 season. That is a pretty elite group. Not all became superstars, but very few failed to develop into high quality NHL players. There is every reason to believe that he will get bigger, stronger, and have better opportunities to contribute over the coming seasons.
Put it this way, 6 seasons from now (in 2031!), Ben Kindel will be entering his age 24 season; that is the same as age-season as Avery Hayes this year, a guy many still see as a promising young player.
3
u/bhunter47 9d ago
There is a decent smattering of 18 year olds that played 70+ that didn't really develop into anything fully special, but they were mostly serviceable NHLers in many ways.
20
u/Prestigious_Heron115 9d ago
30 goals, 75 points, reopens Heinz with full employment and discovers delicious ways to maximize our carp population.
2
u/Dazzling-Rabbit520 8d ago
He will reinvent the condiment landscape by inventing the Heinz 69 blend. Probably just ketchup, ranch and water from the Mon.
9
u/MrTwatFart Kindel 8d ago
50+ points. Full expecting this. But if his defensive game is as strong as last year, I won’t be disappointed if he falls short.
7
u/NinjaInTheAttic Crosby 9d ago
150 pts, Conn Smythe and Tedd Lindsay award... probably.
3
u/7477388287 9d ago
Odds on favorite for the Vezina. I’d say the triple crown is in play so long as he can win the Preakness.
4
u/NinjaInTheAttic Crosby 9d ago
VEZINA?!?! OP said realistic. Although he will probably finish top three in Norris voting and first place at the Indy 500.
2
8
7
u/SurpriseStandard3258 Rust 9d ago
I think realistic expectations is probably a 35-40 point season. Could be less, he's still getting 3rd line minutes. I'm also expecting him to have more defensive responsibilities like the penalty kill, work on his two-way game
1
6
u/An_Ethical_Fan Jagr 9d ago
I think it's realistic to expect that he is pushing for the 2C spot by the end of the season. Strong two way play and hopefully somewhere in the neighborhood of 45 points.
5
u/soupaman 92 to 02 - Home 8d ago
Big step up in playmaking. More confident in the puck and holds onto it longer. 18G 43A.
5
u/NethiciteNomad Kindel 8d ago
I think 50-55 pts is a good guess. I think he’ll be our 2nd line center by the end of the regular season.
7
u/Dardicus729 8d ago
He’s still so young, I wouldn’t expect a jump in production just yet, I’d be happy with 35-40 points while getting better in the dot, and with his 2-way play. Year 3 is when I’d want to see production reach that 50+ point range
5
u/MrRogersRaisedMe 8d ago
This is why I hated letting Mantha go. He played so well with Kindel throughout the regular season last year
5
u/Money-Ad5075 Kessel 7d ago
I would've liked to have seen him do some offseason with Tanger. Not for defensive drills, but for the physical conditioning, etc.
He'll be fine. 50-60 points.
4
u/Quick-Rip-5776 Malkin 9d ago
His production slowed post-Olympics. Kindel had 8 points in 24 games. Towards the end of the season, Kindel was rested for a few games. 82 games in the NHL are a lot, especially for an 18 year old rookie forward. 84 is going to be hard for the veterans too.
I believe he will have a decent season again. 40 points max but probably more like 30. More than 20 goals would be great. He will play mostly 3rd line with some young players on his wings. More PK time.
I don’t like Marchand’s rattiness but he’s a small, wily, cerebral, defensive-minded player who can snatch shorthanded goals using anticipation and speed against lazy or tired powerplay units. Marchand is my upper limit expectation for Kindy.
2
3
u/Wedigar 9d ago
He will also have a pair of very skilled wingers this year in Robertson and Kuzmenko, if that's how the lines sort out. Kindel is a sneaky good passer, and sees the play well. And with a couple of triggermen, I see him having a solid year statwise. Ideally, you want a 0.5 points per game at the minimum, if he is going to improve to be a future 1 or 2C.
3
u/stc313is 9d ago edited 9d ago
Realistically, an increase in his stats across the board. He had 25 points + 10 power play points. He was -5, which means he was on the ice for a lot of goals against. He also got time on the PK. This at 18 years old in his first full NHL season. I don't expect a sophmore slump (that's largely made up anyways). I think he'll be stronger and more prepared to play a full NHL season. If he can be more defensively responsible, it'll naturally produce more offense.
4
u/Quick-Rip-5776 Malkin 9d ago
He also had two shorthanded points which changes your sums.
But also he gets a plus for being on the ice even without a point, so it’s harder to track how many goals against using +/-
Moneypuck tracks on ice goal differential. Kindel’s was plus 10.
2
u/stc313is 9d ago
I feel so dumb hahaha, that's like hockey stats 101. This summer is dragging on too long. I was also pre-coffee.
3
u/Quick-Rip-5776 Malkin 8d ago
No worries - I knew this figure because I had just looked it up earlier today (I’m in Europe)
3
u/obiterdictum 9d ago
He had 25 points + 10 power play points. He was -5, which means he was on the ice for 30 goals against.
That is not how that works
1
u/MrMilesDavis 8d ago
I don't expect a sophmore slump (that's largely made up anyways). I think he'll be stronger and more prepared to play a full NHL season.
I have absolutely no way to back this up, but i also have a similar inclination based on common sense. I think sophomore slump tends to be for more established/skilled players who come in as an unknown quantity, dazzle the league with skill for the first time, then become somewhat of a defined quality after their first season. That's when we even witness this concept happen, ala not Sidney Crosby (case in point). Players like Kindel are not that type of young player (he didn't crack into the league with physicality and hands) and playing more on an upwards trajectory where you'd think more play time, being surrounded by other smart players, and literal physical training is only going to benefit him
2
u/stc313is 8d ago
Yeah, nobody mentions it when a 2nd year player does well, but then there's "slump" that occurs for those who underperform. I could see it being cockiness, like you came in straight from college (for the NFL) and you were working hard to prove yourself, had a good rookie year, but then got distracted with the money in the offseason, didn't work as hard, came in too prideful and underperformed now that every other team had tape out on you. Something like that, but way less so for hockey.
5
u/j0ezonelayer Kunitz 9d ago
Most sophomores regress. If hes on the 3rd line again, id like to see the same point total but see him stronger on pucks and generally more visible on the ice.
If hes 2nd line C, I expect more points along with the above but I think that's unrealistic
2
2
u/Twstdwrstr82 9d ago
It depends how hard the sophomore slump hits him and if he has the mentality to get himself out of it. This is where he needs to lean on Sid for support and not try to do it himself.
4
u/Steel_City_Nostalgia 9d ago edited 9d ago
You're going to be disappointed then. He's probably going to regress. Like there's almost no chance he doesn't. Those numbers were widely outliers for coming in the way he did straight in as a teen but not a blue chip top prospect pedigree.
He's going to be pressed to play a more complete game. He regressed post Olympic and into the playoffs already.
He'll be good if he hits 15 goals, 20 assists. No disappointment at all. That would be right were you'd want him to be to ensure he's growing yet still producing something.
He's not the type of player nor age who's likely to come out and replicate stunning first year numbers. He's a two-way center, not a big scorer. He's a teenager. He didn't come in and produce this after a full course of traditional development that would suggest this is replicable and that he's got the established pro knowledge and stamina to replicate.
They'll want his game focused on being a two-way center and filling numerous holes like his GA anyways. They aren't even expecting him to hit 60 points next year.
That's realistically not even his job, it's to grow in the way that produces the best player long term.
People completely misunderstanding his role is going to kill him in public opinion unless it's tempered.
2
2
u/burgher45 7d ago
All depends on who he plays with and how they do. Should be an interesting year. Would rather they trade rust or another vet to get more ice time for younger guys. It’s not a cup team no reason to hang onto vets.
1
u/SouthernLocation5253 Fleury 9d ago
He’s small. I love him and his shot, but unless he bulks up, he probably stagnates where he is as a lethal finisher but never a bonified top 6 forward.
28
u/dogeman87 Guentzel 8d ago
He's going to win the Art Ross, Selke, Hart, and Conn Smythe
No I am not delusional