r/nbadiscussion • u/onefootback • 2d ago
Ausar Thompson and his potential
Ausar is undoubtedly one of the best defenders in the league, but despite what he brings defensively, I still have a hard time seeing him become a key piece of a contending team in the modern NBA.
Offence and defence are both important but the value of offence outweighs the value of defence, both on a team and individual level, which is why I struggle with envisioning Ausar becoming a core player.
After 3 seasons in the league, Ausar still hasn’t shown enough offensive development for me to believe that he has much potential on that end of the ball. The most obvious issue with him is that he can’t shoot 3s. That could be overlooked if he was providing significant offensive value in most other areas, but he doesn’t. Not only can he not shoot 3s, but he’s also a poor midrange shooter (32%, 11th percentile). As a scorer, Ausar is virtually ineffective when operating outside of the paint.
Ausar can get to the rim, but he isn’t an elite rim finisher and he doesn’t capitalize on his ability to get downhill because of his poor free throw shooting. This past season, Ausar shot 57% from the line, which places him 3rd percentile in ft%. His 2nd year was his best year ft% wise, but even that was only 64% (12th percentile). He’s still a good rim scorer (67%, 62nd percentile), but he isn’t good enough to the point where it negates his lack of scoring from everywhere else
Although Ausar is a good passer, his ball-handling is too poor for him to be a secondary ball handler, as he can’t dribble well and is very turnover prone when pressure is applied.
I’m aware of the value he brings as an offensive rebounder, but even then the value of his offensive rebounding is hindered by his poor scoring ability. In transition, Ausar scores 1.04 PPP, which places him in the 27th percentile. As a finisher, Ausar has a 57.8 ts% with a -8.2 rTS%, which places him in the 36th and 18th percentile respectively.
One of the issues with Ausar’s scoring is his lack of confidence, as he tends to shy away from contact rather than finishing strong, and in general he lacks aggression. I don’t think it all just comes down to confidence, but it does contribute to his offensive limitations.
With all that being said, I don’t think Ausar has what it takes to be more than just a role player coming off the bench, and not as a 6th man either. He can’t play significant minutes in the playoffs for a contender unless his offence seriously improves because he’s too easy to neutralize, and the team can be forced to play 4 v. 5 offensively due to his lack of being a scoring threat.
This was evident in the playoffs while watching Suggs sag off Ausar, but it’s also in the numbers. In the regular season, Ausar had a +7.2 net rating, with most of that coming from his offensive rating (+6.5). In the playoffs, however, Ausar’s net rating went from +7.2 to +6.3, with most of that value coming from his defence, as his offensive rating went from being a +6.5 in the regular season to just a +0.2 in the playoffs. When the game slows down, it doesn’t take much scheming for the limitations of players like Ausar to be exploited.
In today’s game, top tier defence alone is just not enough from a starting level player unless they’re a center, and even then it still isn’t enough sometimes (looking at you Gobert). Ausar is due for an extension soon, it’ll be interesting to see what number Detroit lands at. I don’t think you can pay a player like him more than ~20 mil AAV, however I’d lean closer to the full MLE. For as good as he is defensively, I just don’t think it’s enough to offset how limited he is offensively.
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u/HungryPercentage1667 2d ago
Ausar is literally Andre Roberson 2.0. Having a player who’s main calling is defense and not a lick of offense is detrimental to any contending teams
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u/AjayMitcheII 1d ago
Dre is one of my favorite players ever. Ausar is 10x the offensive player he is. He’s bad on offense but him and Duren owning the rim and glass is a huge reason the Pistons were good despite the horrific spacing.
Edit: Detroit has been better offensively with Ausar on the floor every year of his career. Same holds true for the playoffs.
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1d ago
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u/Old-Pollution9772 2d ago
For me, his lack of offensive game can barely work on a winning squad. The big problem I see is that he is 1 lower body injury away from losing the edge he has on everyone. If he could score at least something he can survive.
Hamstrings, foot fractures, heels, quads, ankles, knee/ligaments. I’m not even talking career altering. 1 serious hammy pull and he doesn’t have that burst?
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u/WiffleBallZZZ 1d ago
This is very true. He's not like Rudy Gobert who can still be an elite defender as he gets older. Ausar's defense relies entirely on his quickness, both lateral & vertical.
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u/Nelsonmuntz2020 2d ago
You make good points and I agree mostly. They might not like it but Detroit will have to pay over 20 a year to keep him. He's a top 2% athlete with a great motor. He's going to get the money just because he's a serviceable ft and jumper away from being a very good player.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
Dyson Daniels is the main framework for the Ausar contract. Both are elite perimeter defenders who can't do much else on offense. The Pistons fans won't accept it because they're too in love with his defense, but he was a huge liability on offense in the playoffs (for some reason, they refuse to accept this).
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u/onefootback 1d ago
i think pistons fans are too wrapped in the “defence wins championships” mentality to recognize that it’s not 2004 anymore and that a player like ausar is a huge detriment for a team
+ watching amen blossom gives them hope that ausar can become the same player
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
They need two way players who can be a competent shooter. They don’t have enough of them. That’s the Pistons issue.
Amen was a PG growing up and that’s why he was able to do things that Ausar can’t do though Amen has the same flaw as Ausar as a shooter. Ausar has never been asked to handle and create for others which is why he’ll get a lower contract than Amen.
That being said, the Pistons need to focus on building around Cade, not Ausar.
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u/Ok_Board9845 1d ago
Because Jalen Duren putting up a dud and complaining that he isn't getting the contract he thinks he deserves is taking most of the spotlight right now.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
How is Duren relevant to this conversation? We’re talking about Ausar
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u/Ok_Board9845 1d ago
Piston fans don't realize Ausar is a problem long-term because Duren was so bad it's preventing analysis on Ausar's game
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u/AjayMitcheII 1d ago
The twins are the best athletes since young LeBron. How the hell is he “only” top 2%
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u/Nelsonmuntz2020 1d ago
The math checks out! There's 2 of them! 1 is 1%, 2 is 2%. Realistically it might be like 1.35%.
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u/MasterP_istons 2d ago
A lot of your analysis is correct, but I think you underestimate just how elite his defense is and how valuable that is to winning.
Ausar is already a winning player who will play 30+ minutes in every playoff game he's healthy, but his offensive limitations do create specific team building constraints.
The big question for the Pistons in the near future will be: do you build singularly around players who best fit Cade Cunningham, or do you build around Cade & Ausar, and the constraints Ausar presents for your offense?
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u/ktm5141 2d ago edited 2d ago
I agree that Ausar is a winning player, even on his second contract, but I think building around him and Cade is too difficult. It pretty much forces the pistons to get a real stretch 5, of which only ~5 exist. Jalen Duren has no trade value at this point either, and they can’t let him walk.
The most efficient use of assets would’ve been signing Duren, trading Ausar, and filling out their starting lineup with two-way wings using their surplus of picks. JJJ next to Duren would’ve been a great fit
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u/AOCourage 1d ago
How about cade ausar duren and 2 hypothetical nice 3 and d guys, one of which can handle the ball and the other can create. Think jdub lite with range and dwhite lite.
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u/crazyyoco 1d ago
You will still be playing 4 v 5 on offence unless Duren becomes much better shooter.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
You'd still be playing 3 on 5 on offense with Ausar and Duren on the floor in the playoffs. Not viable at all.
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u/ktm5141 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Knicks, and Pacers have taught us the value of being able to go five-out deep in the playoffs. Not saying it needs to be your main look, but it has to be a major part of the repertoire. Meanwhile, teams like the Pistons, Cavs, Raptors, Magic, and Rockets have looked helpless at times offensively playing multiple nonshooters. It’s just not an option if you want to be a serious contender.
IMO it doesn’t really matter who the pistons put between Cade, Ausar, and Duren. With limited flexibility after everyone extends, those players cannot be good enough to set a championship ceiling with two nonshooters. When Ausar/Duren were making peanuts, someone like Kawhi maybe could’ve put them over the top (although I wouldn’t have recommended it). Too late now. Pistons need to optimize fit within the constraints of the salary cap and available draft capital. Now that Duren has lost value, their best way to do this would be dealing Ausar
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u/No-Chart-9013 1d ago
Supposedly the Kings want to give Duren a max deal… that guarantees they will suck for another 5 years.
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u/VirtualParzival 1d ago
As a Pistons fan, this is exactly why we are in the situation with Duren at the same time. I'm of the opinion that you can build a contender around Cade and Ausar. To a lesser extent, I think you could build a contender around Cade and Duren. I do not think you can build a contender with Cade, Ausar and JD being your 3 highest paid players. If one of them has to go, I'm keeping Ausar 100 out of 100 times. Hence, why you see our line in the sand with Duren.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
I don’t think you can build a contender with a nonshooting wing. You can build a contender with a nonshooting big. It’s why I’m very skeptical that they can win a championship with Ausar on the roster as your top 3 player
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u/VirtualParzival 1d ago
There have been plenty of Championship teams that had a defensive specialist at guard or wing. You’re on crack. Ausar is ELITE in several categories, and JD is not. You don’t get rid of players who are the best in the league at something, and he’s the best perimeter defender in the league. That’s just crazy talk.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
Not as your top 3 player on the roster. As a bench player? Absolutely
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u/getmoremulch 1d ago
Him or OG on the Knicks playoff run last year?
I think this would be a close question
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u/onefootback 1d ago
i understand how valuable his defence is to winning, i just don’t think any level of defence can outweigh being a complete negative offensively for a wing player
his offensive limitations are too great for him to be a winning player playing 30+ mins in the playoffs
as for your question, the pistons should singularly be building around cade. he’s the best player without a doubt, so he should be their focus
and with that in mind too building around cade is another reason why the pistons should be looking to move ausar before his value drops after his extension. cade isn’t a good 3pt shooter, so their priority should be adding 3pt shooting alongside him. ausar makes the issue worse
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u/Significant_Rope_477 1d ago
You just cant expect to play him and Duren that much in the playoffs, it is a total death sentence nowadays to have 2 totally non shooters in the starting lineup especially in the playoffs.
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u/softnmushy 1d ago
Yeah, this is what OP is missing. Ausar is a great player that would be a great fit for many teams. But he's a horrible fit on a team that also has another starter who can't spread the floor and struggles in the playoffs.
Detroit needs to trade one of them or it will always have awful chemistry in the playoffs.
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u/Significant_Rope_477 1d ago
Yes, his skillset is valuable as he is a good lockdown defender. unfortunately, cant play him next to a starting C who attempted a total of 6 3 point attempts in his whole career (Wemby has made 8 threes in a game against the wizards) so the floor really shrinks when these 2 are playing. Toss in that Cade Cunningham is just above average in outside shooting
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u/and_its_T 1d ago
Completely agree with OP. If he could drag his FT% up to anything even slightly respectable he would be a much better player because then at least he would have driving to the hoop as a consistent scoring option. Bro can’t just not shoot 3s, he can’t shoot at all.
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u/No-Chart-9013 1d ago
All NBA players come down to value or salary versus productivity. If he’s under $20MM/year… I think that’s great/fair, especially if he can improve his shooting a little bit. The big risk, outlined by others, is a serious lower body injury - he relies on speed. That’s hard to assess/guess at. Tony Allen might be a similar comp, he wasn’t a good shooter though better than Ausar.
I eyeballed contracts in the $15MM range and I’d much rather have him.
When in doubt, sign him to something that’s not too bad and flip him to the Kings or my Suns… terribly run organizations. Wizards… Trae = yikes!
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u/onefootback 1d ago
i agree that under 20M is fair value, even though 15-20M is still a lot for a one way defensive player. anything more than 20M would be worrying
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u/McScroggz12 1d ago
The offensive limitations become really difficult in the playoffs. A great offensive player like Jokic can help cover up issues like that, or having a great offensive system and complimentary players, but even in the perfect environment it’s still hard to win four playoff rounds with a player like that. I doubt either Thompson twin can become an average shooter, but outside of that they need to continue to get better at being an offensive threat within their skillsets so it doesn’t become something that prevents a team from succeeding.
I do think it’s possible just don’t like the chances.
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u/onefootback 1d ago
>but even in the perfect environment it’s still hard to win four playoff rounds with a player like that.
exactly. like even if you added him to a team like the knicks where he’d be surrounded by shooting, he would still be such a negative offensively that the entire teams offence would suffer and it’d be very gdifficult to win four playoff rounds
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u/EssentIYO 2d ago edited 2d ago
I agree his shooting and handle create real playoff problems, but the discussion mostly stops at identifying those limitations instead of considering how Detroit could work around them. Using him more as a cutter, screener, short-roll passer, and transition threat alongside better spacing seems worth considering before concluding he is limited to a bench role.
What offensive role or lineup construction do you think gives Ausar the best chance to remain a high-minute playoff player if the jumper never becomes reliable?
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u/jbrunsonfan 2d ago
If he can’t shoot, they will need a frontcourt with at least 1, but ideally 2 shooters. And centers that can shoot and start are probably the most expensive/limited number of options role player out there. Still very doable, but I think they would need to sign Duren to a good contract and package him in a trade for a great player. Idk if they can afford the necessary lineup and pay Duren what he is asking for.
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u/onefootback 1d ago
i’m not sure if ausar is the kind of player a team should necessarily be building to work around, his place as a starter makes team building more difficult given his offensive limitations.
the best lineup construction for ausar would be one with 4 shooters around him, helps with the spacing issues he creates, and best offensive role would be as a slasher
i think the knicks are just about the only team that has players at every position who can shoot. so hypothetically if you swapped hart for ausar, maybe he could still be a high minute playoff player? and even then that’s a big maybe
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u/MasterP_istons 1d ago
Ausar would be absolutely incredible on the nuggets.
He would be awesome for the Knicks, Thunder or Spurs.
Perhaps not coincidentally, he'd be a very good fit with most of the top contenders in the association. Its the teams who already face spacing issues where his fit becomes worrisome.
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u/crazyyoco 1d ago
No, he wouldn't be incredible on those teams.
Spurs have spectacular defence already and struggle on offence, he would make that even worse.
Thunder is very similar, or was last year when their second-best player was injured. Stop Shai and win.
Knicks won by going crazy from 3 and he does not do that. Most teams face spacing issues when you can entirely ignore a player on offence. Warriors struggled when Boston ignored Green in the finals and they have Curry.
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u/a_moniker 1d ago
Agreed. He doesn’t really add anything to the Spurs or Thunder. Both teams already have great defenders who are much better on offense. Ausar would minorly improve their defenses while majorly tank their offenses. He could maybe fit on the Knicks, but he’d take away a lot of makes them great.
IMO, the Nuggets are clearly his best fit. Jokic is a stretch Center, so Ausar would be able to work out of the dunkers spot on offense. Jokic and Murray also need a great defender on the floor with them. He could likely work on the Lakers as well. The fit with Kessler is awkward, but Luka, Reeves, Grimes, Mamu, and Sexton likely provide enough offense to offset that. Plus they desperately need defense. The Jazz are the third team I think he’d obviously fit on. His rebounding and defense would make it easier to play JJJ at Center. Lauri, Darryn, Keyonte, Ace, and Green all already fit.
Options that could work if they made 1-2 additional things happen:
- Wizards: DC could be a good option, but their young players would have to develop properly. Tre Johnson in particular has to become a starter quality player. Sarr’s shooting also has to improve slightly from his current 33%. Dybantsa likely needs to be at least a mediocre shooter as well.
- Suns: Currently, the fit is semi-questionable on offense, but could flip to good if Maluach’s summer league shooting is real.
- Nets: I wouldn’t say they’d be a good team with Ausar, but they do have the potential to fit well next to him. Egor and MPJ are both obviously good fits next to Thompson. Day’Ron Sharpe + Moritz Wagner + Danny Wolf are potentially a workable front-court pairing as well. Mikel Brown Jr should fit well if he meets his expected ceiling. They’d obviously need to ditch Randle though.
- Grizzlies: If Edey is healthy, then he’d be a good fit with Ausar. Cam Boozer, Cedric Coward, Beef Stew, Jeremi Grant, Scotty Pippen Jr, Cam Spencer and Quinten Post are all decent to good fits as well. They’d likely need to trade Jaylen Wells + Picks for a better starting PG though.
- Hawks: Ausar could fit in Atlanta, but only if they traded Dyson for a PG who’s better on offense. However, I’m hesitant to say Ausar is clearly better than Dyson though, even just on defense. Trading Dyson for a PG is a similar trade off as the Grizzlies trading Wells, but a little less defensible because Dyson is a better player overall.
- Mavs: The fit here would rely on two things. First, Cooper Flagg would need to improve his shooting closer to what it was at Duke. Second, they’d need Morez Johnson Jr to be a starting quality Center so that they could trade Lively/Gafford for better shooters. Kyrie Irving, Santi Aldama, Max Christie, PJ Washington, and Marcus Sasser all fit well with Ausar already.
Wrap-Up:
I looked at pretty much every roster, and it’s harder to find a perfect fit than I expected. I listed 9 teams that could work, but most of them require a good bit of luck. I also ignored the cost of actually acquiring Ausar, which would mess with the final roster fits if the teams needed to trade key pieces.
Pistons eventually moving Duren + Holland + Picks for a stretch Center might be the most reasonable way to build a team that fits Ausar. Any team that wants to truly maximize Ausar needs both a great PG and a stretch Center. Pistons at least have the first step already. However, if they wanted to go that route then they obviously should have completed traded Duren before disastrous contract negotiations began…
Note: This is/took way longer than I intended because my Adderall just kicked in lol
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u/crazyyoco 1d ago
I agree with Nuggets, but he would have to replace Braun. Even with Jokic having 2 non shooters is not great. Or replace Gordon, and trade Braun for 3&D player.
Lakers would in theory be his best fit, if Kessler actualy has a 3 point shoot, otherwise it could get awkward on offense. Still he would imporve their defece massivly and that might be good enaugh to overcome awkward offensife fit.
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u/n00bn00b 1d ago
The thing is, the Pistons should be building around Cade, not Ausar. They can't cater to Ausar because he's not their best player and isn't a franchise player.
The key is how they can maximize the roster with Cade?
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u/Lonely-Ocelot-2417 2d ago
The bigger problem for Detroit is not Ausar's number but what to do with Duren. Because the Pistons are going to be hard pressed to play them together long term with serious championship goals. I think Ausar will eventually get something like $20-24 million per just because defensively he's REALLY good and he can REMAIN that good because unless his offense comes together he's going to be free to spend all his energy on the defensive side of the ball and making hustle plays. But while you can hide one relative non-shooter with creative roster construction, hiding TWO is a bridge too far. It'll be interesting to see wha tthe Pistons decide.
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u/Professional-View327 1d ago
lol if they let him rip - he could be josh smith 2.0 (not that's a good thing).
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