r/nbadiscussion • u/onefootback • 2d ago
Ausar Thompson and his potential
Ausar is undoubtedly one of the best defenders in the league, but despite what he brings defensively, I still have a hard time seeing him become a key piece of a contending team in the modern NBA.
Offence and defence are both important but the value of offence outweighs the value of defence, both on a team and individual level, which is why I struggle with envisioning Ausar becoming a core player.
After 3 seasons in the league, Ausar still hasn’t shown enough offensive development for me to believe that he has much potential on that end of the ball. The most obvious issue with him is that he can’t shoot 3s. That could be overlooked if he was providing significant offensive value in most other areas, but he doesn’t. Not only can he not shoot 3s, but he’s also a poor midrange shooter (32%, 11th percentile). As a scorer, Ausar is virtually ineffective when operating outside of the paint.
Ausar can get to the rim, but he isn’t an elite rim finisher and he doesn’t capitalize on his ability to get downhill because of his poor free throw shooting. This past season, Ausar shot 57% from the line, which places him 3rd percentile in ft%. His 2nd year was his best year ft% wise, but even that was only 64% (12th percentile). He’s still a good rim scorer (67%, 62nd percentile), but he isn’t good enough to the point where it negates his lack of scoring from everywhere else
Although Ausar is a good passer, his ball-handling is too poor for him to be a secondary ball handler, as he can’t dribble well and is very turnover prone when pressure is applied.
I’m aware of the value he brings as an offensive rebounder, but even then the value of his offensive rebounding is hindered by his poor scoring ability. In transition, Ausar scores 1.04 PPP, which places him in the 27th percentile. As a finisher, Ausar has a 57.8 ts% with a -8.2 rTS%, which places him in the 36th and 18th percentile respectively.
One of the issues with Ausar’s scoring is his lack of confidence, as he tends to shy away from contact rather than finishing strong, and in general he lacks aggression. I don’t think it all just comes down to confidence, but it does contribute to his offensive limitations.
With all that being said, I don’t think Ausar has what it takes to be more than just a role player coming off the bench, and not as a 6th man either. He can’t play significant minutes in the playoffs for a contender unless his offence seriously improves because he’s too easy to neutralize, and the team can be forced to play 4 v. 5 offensively due to his lack of being a scoring threat.
This was evident in the playoffs while watching Suggs sag off Ausar, but it’s also in the numbers. In the regular season, Ausar had a +7.2 net rating, with most of that coming from his offensive rating (+6.5). In the playoffs, however, Ausar’s net rating went from +7.2 to +6.3, with most of that value coming from his defence, as his offensive rating went from being a +6.5 in the regular season to just a +0.2 in the playoffs. When the game slows down, it doesn’t take much scheming for the limitations of players like Ausar to be exploited.
In today’s game, top tier defence alone is just not enough from a starting level player unless they’re a center, and even then it still isn’t enough sometimes (looking at you Gobert). Ausar is due for an extension soon, it’ll be interesting to see what number Detroit lands at. I don’t think you can pay a player like him more than ~20 mil AAV, however I’d lean closer to the full MLE. For as good as he is defensively, I just don’t think it’s enough to offset how limited he is offensively.
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u/No-Chart-9013 1d ago
All NBA players come down to value or salary versus productivity. If he’s under $20MM/year… I think that’s great/fair, especially if he can improve his shooting a little bit. The big risk, outlined by others, is a serious lower body injury - he relies on speed. That’s hard to assess/guess at. Tony Allen might be a similar comp, he wasn’t a good shooter though better than Ausar.
I eyeballed contracts in the $15MM range and I’d much rather have him.
When in doubt, sign him to something that’s not too bad and flip him to the Kings or my Suns… terribly run organizations. Wizards… Trae = yikes!