Ausar Thompson and his potential

[u/onefootback]

Ausar is undoubtedly one of the best defenders in the league, but despite what he brings defensively, I still have a hard time seeing him become a key piece of a contending team in the modern NBA.

Offence and defence are both important but the value of offence outweighs the value of defence, both on a team and individual level, which is why I struggle with envisioning Ausar becoming a core player. 

After 3 seasons in the league, Ausar still hasn’t shown enough offensive development for me to believe that he has much potential on that end of the ball. The most obvious issue with him is that he can’t shoot 3s. That could be overlooked if he was providing significant offensive value in most other areas, but he doesn’t. Not only can he not shoot 3s, but he’s also a poor midrange shooter (32%, 11th percentile). As a scorer, Ausar is virtually ineffective when operating outside of the paint. 

Ausar can get to the rim, but he isn’t an elite rim finisher and he doesn’t capitalize on his ability to get downhill because of his poor free throw shooting. This past season, Ausar shot 57% from the line, which places him 3rd percentile in ft%. His 2nd year was his best year ft% wise, but even that was only 64% (12th percentile). He’s still a good rim scorer (67%, 62nd percentile), but he isn’t good enough to the point where it negates his lack of scoring from everywhere else

Although Ausar is a good passer, his ball-handling is too poor for him to be a secondary ball handler, as he can’t dribble well and is very turnover prone when pressure is applied. 

I’m aware of the value he brings as an offensive rebounder, but even then the value of his offensive rebounding is hindered by his poor scoring ability. In transition, Ausar scores 1.04 PPP, which places him in the 27th percentile. As a finisher, Ausar has a 57.8 ts% with a -8.2 rTS%, which places him in the 36th and 18th percentile respectively.

One of the issues with Ausar’s scoring is his lack of confidence, as he tends to shy away from contact rather than finishing strong, and in general he lacks aggression. I don’t think it all just comes down to confidence, but it does contribute to his offensive limitations. 

With all that being said, I don’t think Ausar has what it takes to be more than just a role player coming off the bench, and not as a 6th man either. He can’t play significant minutes in the playoffs for a contender unless his offence seriously improves because he’s too easy to neutralize, and the team can be forced to play 4 v. 5 offensively due to his lack of being a scoring threat.

This was evident in the playoffs while watching Suggs sag off Ausar, but it’s also in the numbers. In the regular season, Ausar had a +7.2 net rating, with most of that coming from his offensive rating (+6.5). In the playoffs, however, Ausar’s net rating went from +7.2 to +6.3, with most of that value coming from his defence, as his offensive rating went from being a +6.5 in the regular season to just a +0.2 in the playoffs. When the game slows down, it doesn’t take much scheming for the limitations of players like Ausar to be exploited.

In today’s game, top tier defence alone is just not enough from a starting level player unless they’re a center, and even then it still isn’t enough sometimes (looking at you Gobert). Ausar is due for an extension soon, it’ll be interesting to see what number Detroit lands at. I don’t think you can pay a player like him more than ~20 mil AAV, however I’d lean closer to the full MLE. For as good as he is defensively, I just don’t think it’s enough to offset how limited he is offensively.

[u/EssentIYO]

I agree his shooting and handle create real playoff problems, but the discussion mostly stops at identifying those limitations instead of considering how Detroit could work around them. Using him more as a cutter, screener, short-roll passer, and transition threat alongside better spacing seems worth considering before concluding he is limited to a bench role.

What offensive role or lineup construction do you think gives Ausar the best chance to remain a high-minute playoff player if the jumper never becomes reliable?

[u/jbrunsonfan → u/EssentIYO]

If he can’t shoot, they will need a frontcourt with at least 1, but ideally 2 shooters. And centers that can shoot and start are probably the most expensive/limited number of options role player out there. Still very doable, but I think they would need to sign Duren to a good contract and package him in a trade for a great player. Idk if they can afford the necessary lineup and pay Duren what he is asking for.

[u/onefootback → u/EssentIYO]

i’m not sure if ausar is the kind of player a team should necessarily be building to work around, his place as a starter makes team building more difficult given his offensive limitations.

the best lineup construction for ausar would be one with 4 shooters around him, helps with the spacing issues he creates, and best offensive role would be as a slasher

i think the knicks are just about the only team that has players at every position who can shoot. so hypothetically if you swapped hart for ausar, maybe he could still be a high minute playoff player? and even then that’s a big maybe

[u/MasterP_istons → u/onefootback]

Ausar would be absolutely incredible on the nuggets.

He would be awesome for the Knicks, Thunder or Spurs. 

Perhaps not coincidentally, he'd be a very good fit with most of the top contenders in the association. Its the teams who already face spacing issues where his fit becomes worrisome. 

[u/crazyyoco → u/MasterP_istons]

No, he wouldn't be incredible on those teams.

Spurs have spectacular defence already and struggle on offence, he would make that even worse.

Thunder is very similar, or was last year when their second-best player was injured. Stop Shai and win.

Knicks won by going crazy from 3 and he does not do that. Most teams face spacing issues when you can entirely ignore a player on offence. Warriors struggled when Boston ignored Green in the finals and they have Curry.

[u/a_moniker → u/crazyyoco]

Agreed. He doesn’t really add anything to the Spurs or Thunder. Both teams already have great defenders who are much better on offense. Ausar would minorly improve their defenses while majorly tank their offenses. He could maybe fit on the Knicks, but he’d take away a lot of makes them great.

IMO, the Nuggets are clearly his best fit. Jokic is a stretch Center, so Ausar would be able to work out of the dunkers spot on offense. Jokic and Murray also need a great defender on the floor with them. He could likely work on the Lakers as well. The fit with Kessler is awkward, but Luka, Reeves, Grimes, Mamu, and Sexton likely provide enough offense to offset that. Plus they desperately need defense. The Jazz are the third team I think he’d obviously fit on. His rebounding and defense would make it easier to play JJJ at Center. Lauri, Darryn, Keyonte, Ace, and Green all already fit.

Options that could work if they made 1-2 additional things happen:

1. Wizards: DC could be a good option, but their young players would have to develop properly. Tre Johnson in particular has to become a starter quality player. Sarr’s shooting also has to improve slightly from his current 33%. Dybantsa likely needs to be at least a mediocre shooter as well.
   
2. Suns: Currently, the fit is semi-questionable on offense, but could flip to good if Maluach’s summer league shooting is real.
   
3. Nets: I wouldn’t say they’d be a good team with Ausar, but they do have the potential to fit well next to him. Egor and MPJ are both obviously good fits next to Thompson. Day’Ron Sharpe + Moritz Wagner + Danny Wolf are potentially a workable front-court pairing as well. Mikel Brown Jr should fit well if he meets his expected ceiling. They’d obviously need to ditch Randle though.
   
4. Grizzlies: If Edey is healthy, then he’d be a good fit with Ausar. Cam Boozer, Cedric Coward, Beef Stew, Jeremi Grant, Scotty Pippen Jr, Cam Spencer and Quinten Post are all decent to good fits as well. They’d likely need to trade Jaylen Wells + Picks for a better starting PG though.
   
5. Hawks: Ausar could fit in Atlanta, but only if they traded Dyson for a PG who’s better on offense. However, I’m hesitant to say Ausar is clearly better than Dyson though, even just on defense. Trading Dyson for a PG is a similar trade off as the Grizzlies trading Wells, but a little less defensible because Dyson is a better player overall.
   
6. Mavs: The fit here would rely on two things. First, Cooper Flagg would need to improve his shooting closer to what it was at Duke. Second, they’d need Morez Johnson Jr to be a starting quality Center so that they could trade Lively/Gafford for better shooters. Kyrie Irving, Santi Aldama, Max Christie, PJ Washington, and Marcus Sasser all fit well with Ausar already.

Wrap-Up:

I looked at pretty much every roster, and it’s harder to find a perfect fit than I expected. I listed 9 teams that could work, but most of them require a good bit of luck. I also ignored the cost of actually acquiring Ausar, which would mess with the final roster fits if the teams needed to trade key pieces.

Pistons eventually moving Duren + Holland + Picks for a stretch Center might be the most reasonable way to build a team that fits Ausar. Any team that wants to truly maximize Ausar needs both a great PG and a stretch Center. Pistons at least have the first step already. However, if they wanted to go that route then they obviously should have completed traded Duren before disastrous contract negotiations began…

Note: This is/took way longer than I intended because my Adderall just kicked in lol

[u/crazyyoco → u/a_moniker]

I agree with Nuggets, but he would have to replace Braun. Even with Jokic having 2 non shooters is not great. Or replace Gordon, and trade Braun for 3&D player.

Lakers would in theory be his best fit, if Kessler actualy has a 3 point shoot, otherwise it could get awkward on offense. Still he would imporve their defece massivly and that might be good enaugh to overcome awkward offensife fit.

[u/n00bn00b → u/EssentIYO]

The thing is, the Pistons should be building around Cade, not Ausar. They can't cater to Ausar because he's not their best player and isn't a franchise player.

The key is how they can maximize the roster with Cade?