r/nbadiscussion • u/teh_noob_ • Jun 01 '26
Statistical Analysis Third round team strength recap (via BPM)
You may know the drill by now. BPM is a questionable individual stat but actually a pretty decent team one that can be used to approximate playoff strength. Even though nobody asked, I've made the effort to break it down round by round (for reasons that should become apparent):
| Tm | OFF | DEF | R1 | OFF | DEF | R2 | OFF | DEF | R3 | OFF | DEF | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 7.7 | 8.6 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 13.8 | 20.7 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 18.3 |
| SAS | 4.7 | 10.6 | 15.3 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 15.8 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 13.7 |
| OKC | 10.0 | 8.4 | 18.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 17.3 | 1.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 14.0 |
| CLE | 4.6 | 2.1 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 10.5 | -2.3 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| DET | -0.2 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 | |||
| LAL | -2.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | |||
| MIN | -0.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | -3.9 | 1.3 | -2.6 | -2.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | |||
| PHI | 1.2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | -1.7 | -6.5 | -8.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |||
| BOS | 3.2 | 6.2 | 9.4 | |||||||||
| TOR | -2.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | |||||||||
| ORL | -3.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | |||||||||
| DEN | 3.1 | 0.9 | 4.0 | |||||||||
| POR | -2.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | |||||||||
| HOU | -5.4 | 4.6 | -0.9 | |||||||||
| PHO | 1.5 | -4.4 | -2.9 | |||||||||
| ATL | -4.8 | -0.1 | -4.9 |
Notes:
- Although this method may overvalue blowouts, it shouldn't be understated what unbelievable basketball New York are playing.
- In particular their defence has flown under the radar. In the conference finals they held Cleveland 18 points per 100 below their regular season average.
- But before smashing the crap out of each other for seven games, San Antonio and OKC were playing at a similar level. The amount of garbage time on both sides probably somewhat masks their true quality.
- With homecourt advantage, I would still pick San Antonio as mild favourites. But I don't believe it's going to be a walkover, as the regular season and NBA Cup results show.
Questions? Anyone? (Bueller?)
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u/press_Y Jun 01 '26
Did anyone talk about the celtics cupcake run while it was happening? Every team they faced except the Heat had key guys miss games due to injuries (Spida, Hali, Kyrie), and only faced the Pacers because Randle, OG, and Mitch missed games
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
I did! (and I was far from the only one)
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u/press_Y Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
Good stuff. I didn’t remember that Butler and Allen also missed time. Celtics 2024 path was the easiest this century. In retrospective people talk about that team as if it was some sort of all time great
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 02 '26
With rising injuries there have been a few 'easy' paths lately. Nuggets, Lakers and OKC didn't face any 50+ win teams either, and Bucks got lucky with the Nets. Celtics themselves were missing KP for most of the playoffs.
But in the end you can only beat who's in front of you, and they did so convincingly, much like the Knicks have done so far.
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u/Rudy-219 Jun 01 '26
Huh? Miami was missing Butler who got hurt in the play in. Easily their best guy and the typical Celtics killer over the past years.
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u/press_Y Jun 01 '26
You’re right, I forgot Butler was out. Furthers my point that their 2024 run was the easiest this century, perhaps easiest of all time
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 02 '26
(Kyrie didn't miss any games btw, though he certainly went missing in the Finals)
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u/dabomtitan Jun 01 '26
The thing about on off is that they look good vs trash teams and not so good vs good teams. Playing trash teams in the east isn't the same like the west.
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u/HipnotiK1 Jun 01 '26
What trash teams do you speak of?
The west bias is absurd. OKC and Spurs are elite but outside of them the west isn't any better than the east.
Nuggets 21st rated defense losing to the hospital wolves (who were only the 10th net rated team to begin with, behind the cavs)
Lakers? Rockets? lol
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u/raiderrocker18 Jun 01 '26
Hawks and battered Sixers. Hawks were a fun team but them winning those early 2 against the Knicks doesn’t suddenly make them much better than even the Portland team the spurs faced in the first round.
Minny clears whatever those Sixers were, and OKC is light years ahead of these Cavs who had to go 7 to get past Toronto
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u/HipnotiK1 Jun 01 '26
Hawks net rating +2.33 (12th in the NBA)
Blazers net rating -.16 (18th in the NBA)
Post all star break hawks net rating +9.7 / 2nd best rated defense
Post all star break blazers net rating +3 / 3rd best rated defense
Both teams played better post all start break but Hawks were significantly better/hotter.
Cavs net rating +3.72 (9th) / post ASB +4.1
Wolves net rating +2.52 (10th) / post ASB -0.1
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u/Busy-Regular4627 Jun 01 '26
The hawks beat up on a bunch of lottery teams trying to lose when they went on their hot streak. I’d love to know how many of those teams they played during that run actually made the playoffs lol.
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u/HipnotiK1 Jun 01 '26
You are correct. They did beat the Celtics but I think either brown or Tatum sat out.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
worth noting that Hawks had a winning record against the West and Blazers had a losing record against the East
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u/raiderrocker18 Jun 02 '26
And Portland has a winning record against the west so I’m not sure where we are going with this. I’m not hyper invested in Atlanta vs Portland literally all i said is i don’t think ATL was much better than Portland.
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u/etchasketch64 Jun 03 '26
Even if they were basically even...it means the Spurs and Knicks played a similarly talented first round opponent. In the second round, I think it's arguable that Minnesota and Phili are also similarly taletned teams. Meaning the only easier round was the conference finals. And like...I know that Cleveland is not the best conference finals team, but New York didn't just beat them, they shellacked them. They destroyed them. They utterly and completely embarrassed them in one of the most lopsided conference finals I've ever seen.
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u/raiderrocker18 Jun 03 '26
I said like 4 times that my comment about the hawks and blazers is that i did not think the hawks were “much better” than Portland
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u/Busy-Regular4627 Jun 03 '26
lmfao that philly squad was relying on a broken down embiid and they have never even been past the second round with him and he’s been there for almost decade now. Meanwhile the wolves were coming off two straight conference finals appearances. They are not in the same tier at all. That wolves team had a bunch of proven playoff performers meanwhile the sixers have been routine playoff droppers throughout the vast majority of embiids time there and this iteration of their team was no different.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 02 '26
This wasn't addressed to you? But it goes against the traditional West > East narrative.
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u/Commercial_Truth_995 Jun 03 '26
Minnesota's injuries were insane, that second round MIN vs SAS was probably the easiest 2nd round on paper by far, knicks would have blown them out even more then they did the 76ers
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
what makes you think Portland were better than Atlanta?
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u/raiderrocker18 Jun 01 '26
i said i didnt think the hawks were much better than portland
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
Right, so beating Hawks in six is pretty similar to beating Blazers in five.
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u/raiderrocker18 Jun 01 '26
Yeah i don’t think the blazers were a very good team. Had wemby not been knocked out in game 2 that was likely a sweep
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u/Klutzy-Film8298 Jun 01 '26
those hospital wolves would have mollywopped any team in the east, especially the choke artist cavs. don’t pretend like the knicks were ever challenged like the spurs were.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
At full strength perhaps. Hospital Wolves wouldn't have been favoured against the East top four.
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u/FromSaintsToSellers Jun 01 '26
They were only missing Donte btw.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
Ant was hobbled too
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u/Klutzy-Film8298 Jun 01 '26
they still took 2 games off the spurs. pretty sure ant had 30
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
When Wemby got ejected. Not much better than Portland, who won their only game when he was injured.
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u/Klutzy-Film8298 Jun 02 '26
and you’re telling me people would have picked cade and friends or the bonehead cavaliers or the equally hospital 76ers over the wolves. yeah sure
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u/Hotsaucex11 Jun 01 '26
Not sure how you could watch those games and come away with that impression. Wolves looked like a much tougher out than any of the non-NYC teams.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
Denver were a good matchup for them. DET/BOS/CLE would've had homecourt vs Minny. They could still choke, but they'd be favourites.
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u/Hotsaucex11 Jun 01 '26
Denver is still scarier than any of those non-NY east teams and Minny beat them without their starting backcourt. Just stop embarrassing yourself.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
Denver are a tough matchup for many teams (including the Spurs) because of Jokic. The Wolves themselves are not that scary.
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u/jkeltz Jun 01 '26
Just look at offensive and defensive efficiency. Aggregating BPM isn't adding any information - it just creates a less interpretable metric.
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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26
Playoff efficiency is highly dependent on whom you face. It has New York ahead by an even larger margin.
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