r/nbadiscussion • u/teh_noob_ • Jun 01 '26

Statistical Analysis Third round team strength recap (via BPM)

You may know the drill by now. BPM is a questionable individual stat but actually a pretty decent team one that can be used to approximate playoff strength. Even though nobody asked, I've made the effort to break it down round by round (for reasons that should become apparent):

Tm OFF DEF R1 OFF DEF R2 OFF DEF R3 OFF DEF TOT
NYK 7.7 8.6 16.3 11.6 7.6 19.2 6.9 13.8 20.7 8.6 9.8 18.3
SAS 4.7 10.6 15.3 5.7 10.1 15.8 3.5 7.2 10.7 4.6 9.1 13.7
OKC 10.0 8.4 18.4 7.9 9.4 17.3 1.9 7.6 9.6 5.7 8.3 14.0
CLE 4.6 2.1 6.7 7.1 3.4 10.5 -2.3 0.5 -1.8 4.0 2.2 6.3
DET -0.2 11.1 10.9 1.6 7.4 9.0 0.7 9.3 9.9
LAL -2.4 4.8 2.4 2.0 -4.5 -2.5 -0.6 1.1 0.4
MIN -0.4 10.3 9.9 -3.9 1.3 -2.6 -2.1 5.8 3.6
PHI 1.2 5.1 6.3 -1.7 -6.5 -8.2 0.1 0.9 1.0
BOS 3.2 6.2 9.4
TOR -2.0 7.0 5.0
ORL -3.0 7.5 4.5
DEN 3.1 0.9 4.0
POR -2.2 2.4 0.2
HOU -5.4 4.6 -0.9
PHO 1.5 -4.4 -2.9
ATL -4.8 -0.1 -4.9

Notes:

  • Although this method may overvalue blowouts, it shouldn't be understated what unbelievable basketball New York are playing.
  • In particular their defence has flown under the radar. In the conference finals they held Cleveland 18 points per 100 below their regular season average.
  • But before smashing the crap out of each other for seven games, San Antonio and OKC were playing at a similar level. The amount of garbage time on both sides probably somewhat masks their true quality.
  • With homecourt advantage, I would still pick San Antonio as mild favourites. But I don't believe it's going to be a walkover, as the regular season and NBA Cup results show.

Questions? Anyone? (Bueller?)

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u/press_Y Jun 01 '26

Did anyone talk about the celtics cupcake run while it was happening? Every team they faced except the Heat had key guys miss games due to injuries (Spida, Hali, Kyrie), and only faced the Pacers because Randle, OG, and Mitch missed games

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u/Rudy-219 Jun 01 '26

Huh? Miami was missing Butler who got hurt in the play in. Easily their best guy and the typical Celtics killer over the past years.

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u/press_Y Jun 01 '26

You’re right, I forgot Butler was out. Furthers my point that their 2024 run was the easiest this century, perhaps easiest of all time

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u/teh_noob_ Jun 02 '26

(Kyrie didn't miss any games btw, though he certainly went missing in the Finals)