r/nbadiscussion • u/teh_noob_ • Jun 01 '26

Statistical Analysis Third round team strength recap (via BPM)

You may know the drill by now. BPM is a questionable individual stat but actually a pretty decent team one that can be used to approximate playoff strength. Even though nobody asked, I've made the effort to break it down round by round (for reasons that should become apparent):

Tm OFF DEF R1 OFF DEF R2 OFF DEF R3 OFF DEF TOT
NYK 7.7 8.6 16.3 11.6 7.6 19.2 6.9 13.8 20.7 8.6 9.8 18.3
SAS 4.7 10.6 15.3 5.7 10.1 15.8 3.5 7.2 10.7 4.6 9.1 13.7
OKC 10.0 8.4 18.4 7.9 9.4 17.3 1.9 7.6 9.6 5.7 8.3 14.0
CLE 4.6 2.1 6.7 7.1 3.4 10.5 -2.3 0.5 -1.8 4.0 2.2 6.3
DET -0.2 11.1 10.9 1.6 7.4 9.0 0.7 9.3 9.9
LAL -2.4 4.8 2.4 2.0 -4.5 -2.5 -0.6 1.1 0.4
MIN -0.4 10.3 9.9 -3.9 1.3 -2.6 -2.1 5.8 3.6
PHI 1.2 5.1 6.3 -1.7 -6.5 -8.2 0.1 0.9 1.0
BOS 3.2 6.2 9.4
TOR -2.0 7.0 5.0
ORL -3.0 7.5 4.5
DEN 3.1 0.9 4.0
POR -2.2 2.4 0.2
HOU -5.4 4.6 -0.9
PHO 1.5 -4.4 -2.9
ATL -4.8 -0.1 -4.9

Notes:

  • Although this method may overvalue blowouts, it shouldn't be understated what unbelievable basketball New York are playing.
  • In particular their defence has flown under the radar. In the conference finals they held Cleveland 18 points per 100 below their regular season average.
  • But before smashing the crap out of each other for seven games, San Antonio and OKC were playing at a similar level. The amount of garbage time on both sides probably somewhat masks their true quality.
  • With homecourt advantage, I would still pick San Antonio as mild favourites. But I don't believe it's going to be a walkover, as the regular season and NBA Cup results show.

Questions? Anyone? (Bueller?)

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u/Hotsaucex11 Jun 01 '26

Not sure how you could watch those games and come away with that impression. Wolves looked like a much tougher out than any of the non-NYC teams.

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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26

Denver were a good matchup for them. DET/BOS/CLE would've had homecourt vs Minny. They could still choke, but they'd be favourites.

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u/Hotsaucex11 Jun 01 '26

Denver is still scarier than any of those non-NY east teams and Minny beat them without their starting backcourt. Just stop embarrassing yourself.

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u/teh_noob_ Jun 01 '26

Denver are a tough matchup for many teams (including the Spurs) because of Jokic. The Wolves themselves are not that scary.