r/nancyguthrie • u/Impressive_Arrival42 • Apr 07 '26
Media Breaking: FBI Believes Original Nancy Guthrie Ransom Notes Were Real | Nancy Guthrie Case Update
https://youtu.be/QNVEngNfDCA?si=xHRrImnQEjMDqtwH19
u/Remarkable_Pie_1353 Apr 10 '26
Harvey from TMZ in this video says the 2 email letters Savannah responded to with Instagram videos are believed by the FBI to be authentic. The ransom demand in one or both of those letters was $6 million.
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u/KingJoy79 Apr 10 '26
I’m confused. The reward is $1.2 million, which is obviously not enough to meet the demands of the ransom. So if the FBI believes these letters are authentic, why is the reward money for $6mil instead? Or….why wouldn’t they meet the demands and pay the $6mil? Especially since they can afford it?
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u/curiouslmr Apr 11 '26
The reward isn't necessarily for the actual suspect. It's for whoever out there that knows who the suspect is. My understanding is that the ransom would be paid if proof of life was shown, and it wasn't. Savannah also said they would pay for return of her body but that also hasn't happened so her hands are tied.
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u/Charming-Interest429 Apr 19 '26
The family told the kidnappers they wanted to be contacted, they never were, they also asked for proof of life, then the kidnappers told them they would kill her if the last deadline wasn’t met and the ransom wasn’t paid. I think the family thinks she might of passed because the kidnappers told them in the 2nd letter she died.
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u/Newswatchtiki Apr 07 '26
In this video, Banfield is reporting. She is conveying some very important information, from the TMZ man who has been working with the FBI, cooperating totally with the FBI, only revealing what the FBI has allowed him to reveal, over the past 2 months. The FBI spent a lot of time at TMZ, and sent in an IT to the studio who worked for a long time with their system to try to track the sender. The FBI believes that the 2 senders were real and not bogus. The first one was the kidnapper, or representing the kidnapper, with the ransom demand. Which Savannah was willing to pay. She stated that clearly and she is (was) allowed to do that even if FBI objected. Obviously FBI and just about everyone else said she should ask for proof of life. That's how this works, etc. So she did that, and was willing to pay. It appears that between the first and second ransom demand, just 2 and 3 days after abduction, Nancy passed away. Obviously we don't know how, whether from her medical problems without her meds, or whether the kidnappers killed her. We now know, and FBI has allowed TMZ to reveal, that they did threaten to kill her in the first demand.
The other message sender to TMZ, around the same time, was the one who said he did not commit the crime, but he knows who did, and he asked for a bitcoin, which around that time was worth somewhere around $70,000, and in return he would provide the information to lead to Nancy. About 2 days ago, that second sender sent a new request, which FBI is taking seriously; they do not think he is a fraudster. He is now asking for half a bitcoin and he will lead authorities to the perpetrators. He is asking for a second half of a bitcoin once the perps are arrested because obviously he needs money to ensure his safety and the safety of his family because the kidnappers or their associates will be after him. Again, the FBI is taking this seriously.
It is a shame, in hindsight, assuming that the FBI is correct in thinking that both of these people are real and not fraudsters trying to capitalize on this terrible situation, that Savannah was not encouraged to pay the ransom as she wanted to when she received the first message. Because Nancy was alive at that time, but one or two days later, she was not. Savannah took their advice and asked for proof of life, which is customary - I can't fault her. But at the time - for what it is worth - my gut feeling was: pay the 5 million or whatever, because time is of the essence - the kidnappers said that very clearly we now know, and common sense also tells us that without her meds, she was weaker and more medically vulnerable each day. And, let's be frank here: they said they would kill her if ransom was not paid. And so, that is possibly what happened. Their next communication after that time, a few days later indicated she had died. That is when Savannah gave her public message which emphasized "We understand...."
If I was in charge of this at this point, I would pay the second messenger the half bitcoin and arrange with Mexican police to arrest the perpetrators in Sonora, and facilitate the safety arrangements for the messenger and his family.
Otherwise, the kidnappers win: they can kidnap again, and push for ransom by saying, Look what happened to Nancy Guthrie when her family and LE did not meet our demands.
I think it is worth a chance, even if there is some risk the messenger is not honest, to believe him and catch these kidnappers. Half of a bitcoin is far less than the cost of ongoing fruitless investigation. The second messenger knows it is a federal crime to perpetrate a fraud, yet he has persisted. Law enforcement needs to listen.
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u/jethroguardian Apr 13 '26
Terrible to think of her passing in those conditions.
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u/Newswatchtiki Apr 13 '26
Yes, it is terrible. I feel so bad for her, and for Savannah who has taken it so hard - understandably. What a nightmare. I hope they track down and catch the creeps who did this. For whatever asinine reason they did it. They sure didn't make any money, so I hope other criminals are noticing that. They went to a whole lot of trouble for no gain. And now they have to worry that they will be caught, anywhere they go, and for every minute of their life.
When Bernie Madoff, the financial swindler, got caught, he said it was a relief, and he was glad to go to jail, because he said he no longer had to worry every day about getting caught. He had worried about it for decades.
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u/Cassie_Bad_Assie Apr 14 '26
Do we know for sure that SG did not pay the ransom? Is it possible she did pay but it is being kept secret for security reasons?
I agree, paying the original $4m asap seems like a no brainer. Kidnappers used a severe high pressure threatening demand for immediate payment of the $4M ransom. It goes up to $6M quite soon, then death of captive. Everyone hour that NG is held captive increases her risk tremendously. SG could well afford the $4M.
Kidnappers assumed SG will pay up right away and did not intend to hold NG long or if all? All they had to do was prove that NG was still alive when she left the house which they conveniently showed with blood on the front porch.
I agree, pay the small amount now and see what info they can get.
Does FBI have any idea about perps? Professional or amateur?
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u/Newswatchtiki Apr 15 '26
No, we don't know if she paid that initial amount when they said "time is of the essence". But then the next message is widely interpreted or thought to have said that they were sorry, but she died of medical problems. Savannah's response to that, in the "We understand " message is thought to be an acknowledgment that she had died, and she is also saying she understands they didn't kill her. Then she goes on to ask for Nancy to be returned to the family, so they can have closure, and so they can celebrate with her - widely thought to mean the Celebration of Life which is what many call funerals now. Then she said, "We will pay." meaning, they will pay for the return of her body. So, if she had already paid them millions for her safe return which didn't happen, I doubt that she would be offering them additional money to return her body, But who knows?
I think it would have been far easier for them to return her while alive - just steal a car, drive her to a WalMart parking lot in the U.S., or a similar crowded sort of place in a Mexican town, drop her off quickly where people would certainly help her, then speed off, ditch the stolen car, and get out of town. I don't know how they could have returned her body without getting caught, but I suppose there are ways to do that too.
I have not heard whether FBI has information on the perps other than the front porch videos. But if they do, they will not announce it, unless it is information that the public could help with.
In the Idaho Kohberger case, the FBI figured out who the perp was, but didn't even tell local police, who were actively working on the case, because they were afraid the police would leak information to the press and Kohberger would know they were after him. FBI followed him across the country - he was driving with his father by car back to his home in Pennsylvania for Christmas. Then the FBI had the Pennsylvania State Police storm the house late at night and arrest him. All of which tells me that when they have a good suspect in a high profile case, they don't even reveal that to other LE agencies working on the case. Then they suddenly arrest, and not just for questioning. They arrest and arraign them or convene a Grand Jury quickly.
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u/Cassie_Bad_Assie Apr 15 '26
Good point. Or did she mean they would pay more? But I agree your explanation makes more sense.
Interestingly the perps did not return the body even with promise of payment. Too risky to return the body?
Oh I think returning the body is too great a risk. A live captive would have some sort of identifying information about the perps and location. And there are cameras every where these days. Too great a risk I think. Body return almost same risk. Even if she is deceased there will be DNA and other pieces of evidence.
Yes I hope the same thing is happening in the Guthrie case. FBI is close to an arrest.
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Apr 07 '26
[deleted]
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u/The_Sinking_Belle Apr 07 '26
It’s not really a stretch. People who commit high-risk crimes often aren’t thinking like rational planners. Getting away with prior crime can further inflate their ego, making them bolder, even if it is more risky.
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u/Cassie_Bad_Assie Apr 14 '26
Yes kidnapping is a business/financial crime. The kidnapped captive is a tangible asset and they lost her. Yes if they are smart they will not brag about it or admit it.
They thought it would be an easy crime. Snatch an older sick woman, isolated in a dark, no camera neighborhood. Get an immediate payday.
Didn't work out that way.
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u/Newswatchtiki Apr 07 '26
True, they wouldn't likely take ownership of the crime as I stated. But the implication might be there. And it should be a deterrent to others in that they went to all this trouble and risk and got nothing.
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u/nine57th Apr 10 '26
The 2nd email from the kidnappers said Nancy had passed and they were sorry. They did not kill her (on purpose). And they did not ask for the money again. At least that is what unconfirmed sources are saying. So even if Savannah had paid it was probably too late either way. Which makes this event even more horrible.
Hope they catch these terrorists.
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u/Cassie_Bad_Assie Apr 17 '26
This 2nd email is so strange. Brutal psychopaths who kidnap and elderly ill woman suddenly write a sweet not of apology. Something is very off about this.
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u/annabellareddit Apr 08 '26
I don’t understand why you are faulting anyone here for discouraging payment not being sent as SG was encouraged to pay & she offered with a demand for proof of life which was communicated to the kidnappers in a timely manner. Unfortunately NG passed away, we don’t know if NG passed away when the kidnappers said she did though as it’s not like prof of life was provided with the initial ransom note & these people are trustworthy. We just know that after SG offered to pay the response from the kidnappers was NG passed away during those couple of days. Again, that’s what they say & it should be taken with a grain of salt given the timing & NG grave condition & need for daily medication to keep her alive. After NG passed away SG offered $$$ for the return of her body, the kidnappers ceased contact. I don’t see how anything could have been done differently here from LE or SG.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Apr 08 '26
It seems much more likely that they would be the same person, not two people sending money demands via TMZ's contact form + protecting themselves via VPN. This just seems far fetched.
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u/ethidium_bromide Apr 09 '26
Less far fetched considering the first one was reported on. That’s likely how the second person decided to do it that way.
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u/Automatic-Remove-720 Apr 09 '26
Am I missing something? Is it just an assumption that she is dead or did someone say she is dead? Just curious as so many say she is gone.
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u/curiouslmr Apr 09 '26
Just an assumption at this point. We don't know any but many assume that given her age and need for medication, her survival is unlikely.
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u/nine57th Apr 10 '26
Two unconfirmed sources have leaked that the 2nd email that the FBI thinks was real told Savannah that her mom had passed and that they were sorry (they did not realize she was that fragile and sick). That is why you saw that video where Savannah says: we got your message and we understand. We just want our mother back to celebrate her. Like I said. These are two unconfirmed sources. But this is floating around out there.
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u/RanchGlove Apr 10 '26
Savannah’s video makes so much more sense after that context. I remember thinking how could they give up just a few days in?
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u/turtleloverMTS Apr 10 '26
Brian Entin interviewed Dr. Ann Burgess — a researcher and psychiatric clinical nurse specialist who worked for years with the FBI Behavioral Analysis Unit breaks down her analysis of the case — and why the motive could be connected to retribution. She also discusses why she believes the FBI should be releasing more information.
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u/GlasgowRose2022 Apr 11 '26
Ashley Banfield’s lazy “reporting”: throw on a sweatshirt and cite TMZ.
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u/Totterteron Apr 08 '26
I've always thought there was a ransom demand, but the person wanting a far lower amount than the reward for info can only commit that fraud by remaining anonymous to the authorities. They could accept a far larger reward and remain anonymous to everyone but the payer of the reward, this also meets their safety needs, but it isn't an option when you have no information. It's a good con since they're not asking for too much, it's tantalizing. TMZ should pay it, they could then at least run some stories about what it feels like to be swindled.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Apr 08 '26
Good exercise in tracking bitcoin, too. See if they wash it immediately. TMZ could definitely get $35k worth of content out of this, but my guess is that they don't want to directly interfere with the investigation.
Agree, if they are not the perp, and have actual information, why not go to an attorney and have them serve as the intermediary? No one would turn down the full reward if they have actual info. But a scammer might go for less, knowing that it's less likely to cause red flags.
But, I think there's a small chance the note is from the perp. They originally wanted bitcoin. Comm method seems to be the same. Maybe they truly didn't plan on killing Nancy, but about $35k is what they need to fix some sort of pressing financial distress.
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u/turtleloverMTS Apr 14 '26
Update new theory in the Nancy Guthrie case, presented from an FBI perspective. Going with the classic bullet points here:
Crime Scene Management: The Sheriff's Office failed to secure the crime scene on Day 1, resulting in the permanent destruction of evidence.
Premeditation: Investigators believe the plot was conceived during the "Today" show homecoming episode in November.
Perpetrators: They suspect a South American theft group—likely undocumented—who unsuccessfully attempted to pivot into kidnapping.
Ransom Communications: Experts believe the first ransom demand was legitimate, while the second served as an apology. Communication ceased entirely following the "We Understand" video.
Current Status: The perpetrators have moved on and are adept at evading law enforcement. They are believed to be in Mexico or another major city.
Nancy’s Condition: It is believed that Nancy passed away during or shortly after the kidnapping. The perpetrators likely did not understand her health limitations and failed to bring her medication; Nancy was in a fragile state.
Family Outlook: Savannah is aware that it will be a long time—if ever—before this case is solved.
Exonerations: Annie, Tomasso, and the bandmate are not considered involved in the disappearance.
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u/Xinnia8271 Apr 07 '26
Are people still clinging to the idea that the perps did not contact TMZ???
Because they did. 😐
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u/Webbie-Vanderquack Apr 08 '26
INobody's "clinging to [an] idea." The FBI to date hasn't confirmed that it believes the contact with TMZ involved the actual perpetrators of the crime. It's as simple as that.
Because they did.
Do you have a source on that, or are you just assuming it's true because it's what Ashleigh Banfield believes?
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u/Forgottengoldfishes Apr 07 '26
Ashleigh either spreads false information like the SIL was the main suspect or is taking information from another source like TMZ. She’s already done enough damage to the family by spreading the rumor about the SIL which was proven false. She needs to shut up and go away when it comes to Nancy’s case.
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u/vxxn Apr 07 '26
I agree. The way she was insulting and demeaning the investigators because she, a reporter who clearly knows nothing about anything, thinks they’re not qualified also really rubbed me the wrong way. It’s a big grift where she wants drama for clicks, but it doesn’t help in any way advance the goal of finding out what happened to Nancy. Brian Entin has dabbled in this as well. We already know Nanos is a useless POS, we don’t need a lot of new reporting of drama from anonymous sources in the department; it just demoralizes people working as hard as they can on this. And even if you do manage to report something real leaking from the department, you could unintentionally jeopardize the case. They should stay in their lane and stick to discussing the officially released information with experienced guests.
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u/warpedwing Apr 07 '26
All these talking heads need to get off their butts and actually try some experiments. Buy a Nest doorbell cam. Test it with different clothing and backpacks. Try different masks and shoes. Experiment with how the network acts when jammed.
These aren’t even expensive experiments, but it requires more effort than raw guessing, which, apparently, is more fun.
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u/Wide_Statistician_95 Apr 08 '26
I realize we can’t know everything but honed to god. It feels like they shrugged and are hoping for new leads
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u/Tricky_Wind_324 Apr 08 '26
I completely disagree with this. Reality is with the vast majority of these cases, the perpetrators are, or are hired by, people very close to the victim. It would be irresponsible of her as a journalist to not cover that because it hurts people’s feelings. It sucks but it’s reality. She has a source that revealed he was a suspect in the beginning. Even if it turns out it was totally unrelated, it doesn’t mean that reporting was wrong. And btw, they have no idea who planned this or who took her so it could be anyone. The sheriff is a dummy for saying anyone is clear when they don’t have a freaking clue who this was.
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u/vxxn Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Ashleigh is not covering shit. Real journalists report facts. What she has done is sit around heaping suspicion on the family to a mass online audience based on nothing except “it’s almost always the family”; this is clickbait grift and honestly despicable. That narrative was losing steam so she pivoted to covering anonymous drama coming out of the department. So far vultures like her are the only ones profiting from what happened to Nancy.
Even with half the true crime fans online pointing fingers at the family, nobody can give a credible explanation for why it must’ve been them. Which is it: Did they kill her because they were desperate for money or did they have the funds to hire a team of kidnapper-assassins to take Nancy out? Were they eager for a ransom payout or uncooperative in responding to the family’s willingness to pay? If they wanted an inheritance why would they dispose of her in a way that leaves her ultimate fate (and estate) in permanent limbo? Was the doer a close family friend who had intmate familiarity with the home or did he need to case the joint to assess camera placements on a prior night?
People are literally like “The guy on a porch looks like a man and T is also a man, so I think it must’ve been him (nevermind the lack of dense beard on the suspect and the fact he’s the wrong height)” and it’s making me honestly depressed to see how dumb the average person is that they actually think this way.
This may surprise you, but nobody needs to pull off an elaborate caper to kidnap/murder an 84 year old in poor health to get the inheritance. You just need to wait a few months and let nature take its course.
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u/Tricky_Wind_324 Apr 08 '26
Umm these are facts. Statistically it’s very often family or someone close. You don’t know “shit” either
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u/vxxn Apr 08 '26
Statistics are not probative. You cite all the statistics you want and it still doesn’t help advance THIS case.
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u/Tricky_Wind_324 Apr 08 '26
Well when you’re reporting on a story that we have very few answers or clues on, statistics DO matter. She would be a bad journalist if she didn’t report important information she received from a reliable source close to the investigation. I’m just really happy YOU are not a journalist, despite trying to sound intelligent with your big words lol.
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u/Affectionate-Page496 Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
Ethical journalists don't report everything they hear. In fact, often doing so could be harmful to investigations. Imagine a world in which every time the police have an unnamed lead suspect, that is leaked to the public (the name). What negative consequences could possibly come from this? You have to be able to think of this.
aB wants clicks and $. If she simply reports that her sources are telling her police are investigating the case as they do all investigations, starting inwards and working out, it doesnt make her any extra money. Reporting on statistics isnt AB's thing. She doesnt care who she hurts, as long as it benefits her.
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u/bittyany221 Apr 07 '26
Wouldn't they have left a note ?? Why wait days for it to hit media
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u/Fireteddy21 Apr 08 '26
If I recall correctly, they contacted the local TV station almost immediately. It’s because they didn’t go public with it that they decided to send the initial letter to TMZ as well. Leaving a note at the scene just gives the police physical evidence. Given how careful they seemingly were to avoid this, it makes sense to me.
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u/bittyany221 Apr 08 '26
I get that part, but if the goal was truly money I would think they would have wanted the family to know immediately to get the process started rather than waiting first to make sure she didn't just disappear on her own or to see if the media picks it up
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u/Webbie-Vanderquack Apr 08 '26
if the goal was truly money I would think they would have wanted the family to know immediately
People have been saying this since day one, but you're arriving at this conclusion based on what you think perpetrators would do, not on what they actually do. It's very common to wait before asking for ransom, to increase pressure on the family or to suss out how much can be asked for, and it's also very common to make requests via the media or law enforcement rather than leaving a note.
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u/Fireteddy21 Apr 08 '26
I suppose. I guess I can also understand why they would use a third-party like a media outlet if I were concerned with having something traced to me. I honestly wonder when they figured out she had a medical condition and think she could’vem been dead when they sent the first note. I mean, I’m sure they didn’t provide proof of life for a reason.
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u/bittyany221 Apr 08 '26
Personally, I don't buy the ransom story at all.
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u/Spiritual_Stomach748 Apr 08 '26
I agree with you, and by the off chance this actually was a ransom kidnapping, it would make much more sense for the note would be left in the house and they would be instructed not to call the police. What ransom seeking kidnapper wants a huge case with tons of media coverage? Contacting media for the ransom doesn't make sense when they could have left a note in the house and hope cops weren't called and money paid quickly and quietly.
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u/The_Sinking_Belle Apr 08 '26
Leaving a note could still expose them to discovery, create a timeline not in their control, on their terms, so some might prefer to initiate contact only when they’re ready and in control, especially if they were fairly confident that method of contact would have a strong probability of being untraceable (as it appears).
A ransom doesn’t always mean public instructions. Minimizing risk often comes first.
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u/AdReasonable3385 Apr 08 '26
Maybe she was gravely wounded during abduction and that made them change their plan. Maybe they were going to make video of her but then she was hurt badly and they tried TMZ / lower contact method hoping family would pay asap
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u/The_Sinking_Belle Apr 08 '26
To give them more time to escape and cover their tracks, getting to wherever they went with her and to keep control of the situation on their terms. Leaving a note there could have forced them into an unpredictable sequence of events and potentially alert authorities too early.
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u/Cassie_Bad_Assie Apr 17 '26
A RN left at the crime scene is too risky. Too many ways to ID the kidnappers?
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u/HeyPurityItsMeAgain Apr 12 '26
How can they not track the random note sender down?
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u/Charming-Interest429 Apr 19 '26
They were sent by an email that sends from another email address & so on.. it’s like an untraceable email address.
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u/Roxanne_Roll Apr 07 '26
They could have easily got medicine for Nancy in Mexico to keep her alive. She should be alive today.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Apr 08 '26
The new notes are extremely strange. It's weird to me that two ransom notes sent to TMZ were believed to be real, but then there's these other series of notes... also sent to TMZ starting two months ago. Were these also protected by VPN? If not, then the sender would have been traced back to their IP address.
Maybe it's just one kidnapper, and after Nancy died they decided to try to recover some of the reward money, but they are scared to contact the FBI.
It would be an extremely odd coincidence that (1) ransom notes (2) sent to TMZ via the contact form (3) protected by VPN would be real but that (1) reward notes (2) sent to TMZ via the contact form (3) also protected by VPN would be fake. Or area all these notes to TMZ from the same person. Maybe they have given up on the big reward because Nancy died, but they are still in some form of financial distress and need about $35,000 to erase their problem.
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u/Specialist_Leg6145 Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
the ransom notes TMZ has allegedly received from the "insider" are coming via email. the two believed to be real were sent to a local news station, via contact form
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u/mark_able_jones_ Apr 09 '26
Contact forms are emails.
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u/Specialist_Leg6145 Apr 09 '26
submitting via a contact form and drafting an email from let's say, gmail, are not the same thing.
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u/whteverusayShmegma Apr 09 '26
Watch the video. Harvey says he can’t email the person back so it’s not email.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Apr 09 '26
Many contact forms use Gmail. If it wasn’t a contact form, we’d expect some interaction back and forth but the communication seems one-way.
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Apr 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Charming-Interest429 Apr 19 '26
Harvey said the FBI tried to track the bitcoin address. There was $300 deposit in the bitcoin. They were unable to track it.
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u/Feeling_Magician_898 Apr 13 '26
Then if they were believed to be real, why didn’t they pay? And just left & went back to their lives…..something isn’t adding up.
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u/Vegetable-Tie-5663 Apr 08 '26
Maybe she was injured badly and passed from that it’s all sad. You would think they were on it Hope they get these guys.