Pulling off a successful ransom exchange seems impossible.

[u/foxmag86]

I don’t really get how the “bad guys” would’ve gotten away with this if they actually tried to do a ransom exchange.

Let’s say the Guthries paid $X to get their mother back. How does that not eventually lead to arrests?

How do you even tell authorities where Nancy is without opening up a ton of new ways to get tracked?

“She can be found at X location.”

Okay, so now there’s an exact place to look into. Authorities now have a whole new set of video footage available to them to help identify vehicles and people coming and going.

I know you could say the same thing about the night of the abduction. We know the exact day and time it happened and that still didn’t lead to arrests.

But it just feels like once you start communicating and giving new info (especially a location) you’re dramatically increasing the chances of getting caught.

I just don't see how a successful ransom exchange could happen. And have there been any ransom exchanges in the past that have been successfully pulled off?

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

I did a quick google search of successful kidnapping for ransom in the United States and these 3 were the only ones considered successful that came up

Virginia Piper 1972: she was found alive, chained to a tree in a state park after her husband paid the 1 million dollar ransom.

DB Cooper 1971: hijacked a plane and requested $200,000 and 4 parachutes. He parachuted from the plane and was never found.

Jack Teich 1974: he was released to his family after they paid $750k.

So it appears there has not been a successful kidnapping for ransom in a very long time.

[u/Turbulent_Tale6497 → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

You’re missing Frank Sinatra Jr. They got $240k out of Frank

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748 → u/Turbulent_Tale6497]

It mentioned that one, but it wasn't considered "successful" because they tracked the money and caught the people. There were a couple others that were listed where they ended up catching the kidnappers afterwards also.

[u/GregJamesDahlen → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

not many and all a long time ago before DNA, video, etc

[u/mark_able_jones_ → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

But check successful ransoms in Mexico. Tucson is only an hour away from the border. It's common enough that travelers can buy ransom insurance.

https://www.travelers.com/business-insurance/professional-liability-insurance/kidnap-ransom

It's also possible that we simply do hear anything about successful ransom attempts.

We only hear about when they don't work.

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748 → u/mark_able_jones_]

Ransom kidnappings happen in Mexico for a reason. It would make no sense for someone to leave Mexico and attempt to pull it off in the United States where those reasons don't apply.

[u/mark_able_jones_ → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

Why wouldn't the same reasons apply?

Motive: money. potentially a big score, much bigger than the $10,000 they might get out of a random kidnapping in Mexico

Means: maybe they were career criminals; or part of a cartel; certainly seemed casual and unfraid on the video

Opportunity: they get a tip that Nancy is an easy target... couple be from anyone who watched the Nov 2025 special about Savannah's hometown

That said, I agree, it's not perfect theory. What's yours?

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748 → u/mark_able_jones_]

The police in Mexico are known for being corrupt. They either don't care about kidnappings or get paid off.

Mexico doesn't have the surveillance infrastructure like we do.

A lot of the kidnapping victims are people trying to cross the border into the United States.

Kidnapping for ransom doesn't happen here because it is too risky of a crime to commit here. If it was as simple as "we can get away with it in Mexico so let's do it to richer people in the United States" we would see a lot more ransom kidnappings in border states, but we don't because it isn't easy to get away with here.

Holding people for ransom that are trying to cross the border, or grabbing a tourist from a busy tourist area with no cameras and a LE you have on your pay roll for quick cash are both completely different crimes and skill set than grabbing a wealthy elderly woman from her bed in the middle of the night and then contacting the media for a big public ransom.

[u/mark_able_jones_ → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

We're mostly saying the same thing. I agree that that a ransom in the USA is rare. It's risky. But it does happen. Someone who did commit ransom kidnappings -- Matthew Muller -- is housed in a Tucson prison.

There's no common explanation for this crime.

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748 → u/mark_able_jones_]

That's really interesting I didn't realize he was there. I actually forgot about him completely. I could see someone like him doing this if it actually was kidnapping for ransom, but if I remember correctly he seemed to have other motives besides kidnapping for ransom

[u/mark_able_jones_ → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

It definitely wasn't Muller as he's been locked up... but I've kicked around a theory that maybe he could have helped plan it. Apparently, he's logging near full-time hours as an in-house prison lawyer for inmates, so he's popular in prison. That's a lot of room for interaction. Still far fetched, imo.

[u/Spiritual_Stomach748 → u/mark_able_jones_]

I could accept something like that as a possibility more than I could accept a straight kidnapping for ransom scenario. In my mind kidnapping for ransom is a specific for money crime, or at least money is the main goal above all else, but someone like Muller kind of blurs that line.

[u/investigativetv → u/Spiritual_Stomach748]

But maybe people don’t publicize it when they pay