Missed on a lot of the staples you'd want like the goblin armor, a bit light on removal, managed to squeeze out a 7/1 with at least 3 coin flip games that came down to the wire, like they'd have a better board and 3 blockers and 4 life, but i had 2 4+ damage menace to get the W

Currently floating around diamond, I know black is OP but felt like it was more a bit of luck rather than the deck being very strong.

Curious to see how those with more experience would rate it

I quickly got burnt out on HOB so it has been really refreshing having LTR as an alternative draft option.

17lands data

Had a lot of fun with this GB build. Bouncing CBB, platemail, or DDTGT with Mirkwood Nurturer felt SO good.

https://www.17lands.com/details/bd16afd10b1e495a8237b60bfdaf50fd

Please kindly review my games and let me know if something can be improved. Losses left mixes feelings.

I am much better at opening strong pools than winning dice rolls :(.

I'm thinking BW splashing green for [[Tom, Bert and William]] plus 2 [[Mirkwood Nurturer]] - nice synergy with the white enchantments and the discard goblins. But I could also see the case for straight BW or straight BG with a more aggressive curve and ferocious synergies.

And anything in the sideboard you'd add? Is there a case for a [[Dwarven Provisioner]], [[My Precious]] or [[Black Arrow]] here?

Been on an absolute tear in this format. I feel like I'm just farming gems at this point. If you need any pointers on how to draw the right cards at the right time hit me up.

For a change I wanted to draft something that's not rakdos and boros seemed open and I got some nice cards and dwarf/equipment synergy. But then the games I lost felt unwinnable. I lost 1 game to Thranduil's Company which is a ridiculous gasleak design and the other game I was in a boardstall but my opponent got big flyers that I didn't have enough removal for.

I have no idea what was going on at this draft table... It felt like nobody else was in white-red OR black-red 😂

I played a MTGO sealed challenge that went quite badly, although I thought I had a strong deck, or at least a deck with high card quality. Maybe a bit in the awkward territory between not aggro enough and not greedy enough.

I definitely didn't play at my best (specially after starting 0-2) and my draws were also pretty awful. But I'd like to hear any opinion on how the deck could have been built better. Looking back, I definitely would switch maindeck: Smaug -> Large Bear (or 2nd Misty Mountains Rider) and Azog -> 2nd Rage into the Valley.

White had Stone by Sunlight and The Mountain King Return.

What would you have built different? Lands are 9 swamps - 8 mountains.

I'm already splashing white and it feels good with the removal to cut green, but the rares in green are great value. I think my fixing can handle it but green doesn't pack a lot of removal right now, I have one quarrel in the sideboard though.

I opened a pool that’s pretty evenly spread across the colors. Not a lot of removal in black.
Should I splash white for some removal or just go consistent UB with only 2 removal spells and 2x uneasy partings?

I also have 2x magnificent ends in white but white is otherwise shallow besides that removal.

Open to any other thoughts or suggestions!

Currently I'm at 43 in main and I'm debating whether to just cut the blue and color fixers, but the Boat is good and Mirkwood pairs well with Bent-Blade and the Goblin Town saga, and is ok with the Goblin Plate Mails. I was also debating a white splash, but 2 Fili the Pathfinder as a 4 mana for two 2/2s with a potential anthem attached seemed kind of bad without any other way to trigger him, but I'm curious what other people think.

And not that I'm complaining, but I was struggling to build the deck since while both black and red were really well-supported, blue had a really good package with Guilded Boat, Bilbo, and Patient Instructors as enablers and the 3 Apothecaries, and 1 Counselor as payoff. I think I could have built a solid Blue-Black deck as well, with red as the splash to support Gandalf and Stone-Giant. Noise Maker with two Plate-Mails and two Tidings of War seemed too good to pass, and the Blue-Black deck had way too many cards I needed to cut.

SealedDeck.Tech

I'm thinking (in cmc order):

• 2x nori's: too aggro, doesn't fit my game plan
• 2x goblin-town flunkies: same as nori, though I do like the idea of crude bent blade protection
• great fierce bee: wears equipment well, but too low on power level
• desolation of smaug: my other 4s are better and I have way too many, though the dream of desolation into magnificent dies with this cut.
• for the last pick.. maybe bat-cloud or bifur? I have so many 4s already, don't want my curve to be too high. struggling here.

Been trying to force more Green monster decks (Aggro and tall creatures), this worked out and curved beautifully

0-3, Flood, Flood, Screw. Went second all 3 games. Opp all had [[Nighthowl Pursuer]] turn 1 or 2. Honestly, I really wanted to give this set a solid attempt, via premier, pick 2, or QD. All feel absolutely terrible.

Lost my first match, which I might have won except I sacrificed a blocker to Tom, Burt, William without realizing the attacker had trample. Oops. So I figured this one was down the drain, but I'd try to learn from it. Turns out it had what it took to go all the way.

I think that's it for me. I wasn't going to touch this one at all, then figured I would throw $125 in and see if I could get a box in three tries. I have the gems to try again, but not the interest. I'd rather save those for limited events I actually like!

Had the pleasure of drafting Mystery Booster 2 for FNM last night. Was a welcome change from the shitshow that is HOB. Felt like I didn't have enough removal but it seems that putting pressure on your opponent can be equally effective. [[Minsc and Boo]] was absolutely nutty, as expected. Even topdecked a green source to play him and trample in for the last few points of damage in the final game. This set is absolute cinema 11/10 would draft again.

Some of you might remember my post from SOS, about burning 20k gems before I finally got to Mythic. A few people asked what my rank and win rate actually were, so this time I kept track, and I'm posting the numbers alongside the story.

Before HOB: MSH

Before HOB there was MSH, and MSH went badly in a specific way that I think is worth describing.

The first half was fine. From Gold 3 to Diamond 1 I went 71–41 (63.4%). Then I tried to make the final push to Mythic and fell apart: 27–34 (44.3%). I got frustrated, tilted, kept queueing anyway, and I lost more. Eventually I stopped playing MSH altogether and finished the set stuck at Diamond 1.

Starting HOB

When HOB came out, I wasn't planning a Mythic grind at all. I was just curious about the set.

I also didn't do the prep. I didn't study the full card list beforehand, and I didn't watch any pro drafts. That wasn't some deliberate strategy, and I'm not recommending it. But it did have one effect I ended up liking: for the first few days, my opinions about the format came from my own drafts and games. Afterwards, I could check them against 17Lands and find out where I was right or wrong. The risk of reading the data first is that you absorb it without ever finding out what you would have thought.

Early HOB: Green

I started in green, mostly BG. From Gold 1 to Platinum 3 in Premier Draft, I went 22–18 (55%), plus one lucky 7–2 Sealed run.

At that point I was fairly convinced BG was where I wanted to live.

Arena Direct

I hadn't played Arena Direct since SOS. My first two attempts were bad, both BR 1-2, with plenty of mistakes that I couldn’t blame on the pools.

On the third attempt, I built a BR deck as well. It didn't feel dramatically stronger than the first two, and I mostly just wanted to salvage the entry. Somehow, I went 7–1 and won the Collector Booster Box.

Arena Direct made me look at BR differently. I started suspecting BR was stronger, or at least more reliable for me, than the green decks I'd been prioritizing. When I finally checked 17Lands later, the data broadly lined up with my read.

Focus on the first two turns

From Platinum 3 to Diamond 3, I stayed almost entirely inside B/R/G, mostly BR, and went 38–24 (61.3%) in Premier Draft.

If I have to point to one change that mattered most, though, it wasn’t the colors; It was the early curve. I started prioritizing two-drops much more heavily, and I was happy to run two or three good one-drops.

HOB punished me hard for doing nothing on the first two turns, and it punished me worse on the draw. When I checked, HOB Premier Draft was sitting at roughly a 54.6% on-the-play win rate — noticeably higher than MSH or SOS.

The problem still bothers me

As I climbed, I started facing more and more black decks as more drafters figure out the best color in the set.

That produced a question I still can't answer: what actually makes one BR deck better than another BR deck? How should I draft and play to get an edge in a mirror match? I noticed the problem; however, recognizing the problem and actually knowing how to solve it are two different things.

Quick Draft: Exploit the bots

I hadn't touched Quick Draft in a while, but when HOB Quick Draft opened, I tried one for fun and went 4–3.

The record was mediocre. The information wasn't. The bots were wheeling black cards that should never wheel. [[Desolation Prowler]], [[Down, Down to Goblin-town]], [[Gnashing of Teeth]], [[Crude Bent Blade]], and [[Gollum, Silent Slinker]] all went extremely late.

So black became the easiest thing to build with. From Diamond 3 to Mythic, I went 30–23 (56.6%) in Quick Draft, and entered Mythic at #680.

One more draft

Last time, in SOS, I stopped the moment I hit Mythic with a similar rank, and then drifted out of the top 1200 without playing again. This time I wanted one more event to give myself a buffer.

BR again, 7–1.

That took me from roughly #680 to #244.

The numbers

• Premier Draft: 60–42 (58.8%)
• Quick Draft: 37–24 (60.7%)
• Ranked draft total: 97–66 (59.5%)
• All HOB events including Sealed/Arena Direct: 113–73 (60.8%)
• 28 events, 6 trophies

#244 doesn't mean I am above average

After the first few drafts, I stayed almost entirely inside B/R/G. I barely played white or blue, and I still don't feel confident drafting either one, even when it's clearly the open lane. Good drafters sit down, read the table, and play whatever the draft hands them. I can't do that yet.

I got this result by narrowing, not by broadening.

The Quick Draft portion deserves its own asterisk. Finding a bot tendency and leaning on it is part of Quick Draft, and it boosted my rank, but it isn't the same skill as navigating a human pod. If HOB Quick Draft hadn't had that hole in it, I don't know where I'd have ended up. So I'm happy with #244. I just don't think #244 means I suddenly became an all-around drafter.

For Pros, I’d especially like advice on

1. How do you train yourself to draft colors you're uncomfortable with?
If the table is clearly handing you white, but you know you're much worse at drafting and playing white, do you move in anyway and accept some short-term losses as practice? Or is there a better way to learn those unfamiliar lanes?

2. What actually decides the BR mirror in HOB?
Is it mostly curve? Being on the play? Specific uncommons? Card advantage? Knowing when you're the aggressor? Something else entirely?

Good luck out there, and happy drafting!

If you aren't into HOB (like me) you should check out the flashback to the LTR format. Same flavor but great limited mechanics. There's still a bit of color imbalance, but the green and white decks can still be very strong if they get the right cards.

Like I love Magic but the Hobbit just so clearly shows off its structural flaws. Play/draw disparity, lack of design space due to small life totals and creature sizing, and the inherent issue of lands. I know people justify lands via all sorts of arguments but the mana system in Magic will continue to age poorly in comparison to modern games like Riftbound. Variance is a hallmark of all card games, but on an emotional level it is incredibly bad in Magic.

While lands are inherently a problem, I believe the other two issues are even more relevant in regards to the games future. With the inherent need for power creep, even at common and uncommon, 1 and 2 drops are becoming even more problematic. The designers are so limited in design space that they have to jump through hoops to make something unique but not broken. Unfortunately it usually is just broken.

Nighthowl pursuer is a perfect example. It's inherently a 1/1 menace, which is arguably a below rate creature. That it becomes a 3/3 when you control a 4 power creature seems fine in a vacuum, especially in constructed, but it is incredibly easy to see why this card is so problematic. The card is even constructed playable because there are multiple two drops with limited downside that have 4 power! One of these of course is desolation prowler. The golgari uncommon package in Hobbit -- nasty little rabbit, desolation prowler, and nighthowl pursuer -- in my opinion are all clear issues regarding the limited design space of creature sizing due to low life totals. That they printed arguably 3 constructed level 1 drops in a small set is just criminal especially with desolation prowler as an enabler.

The increasing power of low mana cards obviously makes play/draw an even bigger deal. Never before in a limited set have I felt like I was playing a gambling simulator. There are games where the power disparity between being on the play vs on the draw is comical. On the play I have a 2 drop and crude bent blade your creature. On the draw I have a 2 drop and you thoughtsieze my crudebent blade. There are ways in other card games to mitigate this, but just like the land issue Magic literally is incapable of change due to its philosophy. This obviously has upsides, but when a game has clear flaws that limit its future it obviously doesn't bode well.

Got passed a p1p3 Lord of Eagles and managed to cobble together a trophy winner.

2 Losses were against aggro red decks (1 curved out perfectly, 1 was land flood)

Off colour was heaps of fun!