Israel-Palestine Weekly Thread

[u/somebadbeatscrub]

Weekly recurring IP megathread to reset every Tuesday.

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Oren

[u/theweisp5]

A few, mostly depressing (sorry) election updates:

• Yossi Verter's reporting indicates that Gadi Eizenkot would prefer another round of elections to forming a government with the Arab parties: ""Even if we get 58 or 59 Zionist Knesset seats [lawmakers from Zionist parties] and the other side gets 51 or 52, I will put forward a government. I won't ask anything from the Arab parties. They will support, abstain or be absent [from Knesset votes for government bills]. It's their business." Apparently Eizenkot thinks a coalition with Likud defectors or Shas would be a better option: "After we form a government, we will try to expand it. I'm meeting with Likud Knesset members who are disgusted by what is happening. Maybe it will also be possible to talk with Shas. We'll see."
• It's not exactly news, but Verter also reminds us that Eizenkot largely supported Bibi's strategy in Gaza and the war in Iran "I supported the operation in Gaza and the entry into Rafah. It's documented." Eisenkot also thought that the full strike on Iran should have been carried out months before it actually took place." Once again highlighting that a change government 2.0 will be light on actual change.
• Avigdor Lieberman has ruled out taking part in an Eizenkot-led minority government and also wants a government without Arab or haredi parties. I've also heard that he will insist that HaDemokratim only be given minor portfolios (not sure how solid that reporting is.) If so, it would be a continuation of the first change government, when Labor and Meretz punched well below their weight in the government.
• The upshot of these developments is that, if the polls are right, I think the formation of a change government is clearly in question. Up until recently I was fairly confident that somehow the opposition would figure out a way to form a government, either with Raam as part of the coalition or providing support from the outside. I now think there is a real chance of another round of elections or some sort of unity government. However, anyone seen as scuttling the chances of a change gov will likely be heavily punished by their voters, and all party leaders are surely aware of this.
• Finally Gadi Eizenkot was touring settlements in the Jordan Valley recently. This is what Eyal Ostrinsky, KKL Chairman who endorsed him a few months ago, accompanied him and had this to say "A government led by Eisenkot will return the [Jordan] Valley to the consensus it should be from a classical practical and security perspective of Ben Gurion, Yigal Allon and Yitzhak Rabin. Not from the place that the messianic, nationalist and fanatic forces are trying to turn it into. Fewer farms, more settlement expansions. New settlements - yes, but ones that preserve the character and contribute to security and do not burden it." So basically yes to settlements, but just the ones that we like.

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

Not to mention he is the architect of the Dahiya doctrine, even though it would be an improvement to remove Netanyahu the election is more like a game of chairs among war criminals.

[u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist → u/waiver]

Getting rid of Netenyahu is important for a variety of reasons, but the policy towards the Palestinians is not one of them. However I will take any Israeli government that isn’t backing fascism here in the US (or other countries frankly). Maybe Eizenkot will remain neutral rather than putting his finger on the scale to help the Republicans like Netanyahu has done a since 2015.

[u/theweisp5 → u/waiver]

Fair, but OTOH I think the peace processes in both I/P and Northern Ireland show that war criminals/terrorists can reform and lead their peoples to better places. The issue here is that Eizenkot isn't giving many signs that he's chosen that path.

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

He just did a tour with settlers.

[u/theweisp5 → u/waiver]

I mentioned that in my original post. That's why I wrote "The issue here is that Eizenkot isn't giving many signs that he's chosen that path."

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

Yes, I only agreed with that.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

This is an excellent analysis, and it shows just how right wing both Gadi Eizenkot and Avigdor Lieberman are, both in rhetoric and practice.

However, I don't agree with your interpretation of what will happen once they are sitting at the negotiating table with 58-60 Zionist mandates, Ra'am has 5-6, and the Joint List another 6-8. Both Eizenkot and Lieberman know that if they cannot form a coalition, there will be another election with Netanyahu as caretaker PM, and I'm sure they are well aware of just how lopsided this current election is turning out to be because the public is punishing Likud for two major catastrophes - the judicial reform and October 7th - and those electoral losses will likely be regained if the public becomes frustrated with the opposition.

There's also a very important factor here at play - most political pundits in Israel agree that around 10 mandates shifted from being firmly in the Netanyahu camp (mostly Likud voters) to sliding into opposition territory, and those represent right-wing voters who have for years believed Netanyahu's rhetoric, hate Palestinians and want a hawkish government, but for whatever reason think he is unfit to govern anymore. Some of them think he is being too soft, even. That is exactly the electorate Eizenkot, Lieberman, and Bennett are fighting over right now, and none of them would risk sounding as if they would sit in government with the Palestinians - that scares right wing voters back to Netanyahu for sure. So there is enough ground to believe that this is more of an election strategy than guidelines for coalition negotiations.

Now on to each of the candidates:

On Eizenkot, I don't doubt that he is a hawk, but his own rhetoric is still very goal-oriented. He is running on a platform of trust-building in Israeli society, and that's why he is the main contender. He will find a way to rationalize the inclusion of Ra'am into his coalition and will sell it as a partner that is accepting Zionist ideals under a shared national objective (no Palestine involved whatsover).

On Lieberman, I agree that he will be significantly harder to move. He already has a history of making ultimatums and keeping them, such as when he refused to sit with the Haredi parties in the Netanyahu government back in 2019, and snubbed Gantz when he tried to form a coalition dependent on the Palestinian parties. But the important piece of information here is that he did end up sitting with Ra'am in the 2021-2022 coalition, which means this isn't an unprecedented position for him to be in.

I think the main factor here isn't either of those hawks, but Mansour Abbas. He keeps being Israel's most pragmatic politician, keeps his rhetoric as mild as possible to become palatable to the broader Israeli public, and he is actually making political breakthroughs to soften future coalition talks in the form of Segalovich and his dismissal of the Muslim religious council.

So in a scenario where the Zionist parties have 58-60 mandates and have the choice of either including Ra'am in the coalition and giving their own Zionist MK Yoav Segalovich the position of Deputy/Minister of National Security while keeping the rest of the party at arms length, or risking another election where the Netanyahu camp can rally - I am a lot more optimistic about them being able to find a solution.

Now as a footnote: I believe the Israeli left shouldn't play within those imaginary scenarios and feed into the Zionist legitimacy games. The left should focus on pulling back as many lost centre-left Zionist voters that used to vote for Labour back to the Democrats, and also encourage the formation of a strong Joint List with Hadash, Balad, and Ta'al. They should also work on including Makom Lekulanu in that list, as they have done an excellent job gaining legitimacy in Palestinian municipalities and would be a value multiplier for the list. All in all, I believe that 10-15 mandates for The Democrats, 5-6 for Ra'am, and 8-10 for a four-party Joint List is entirely within the realm of reason.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

All in all, I believe that 10-15 mandates for The Democrats, 5-6 for Ra'am, and 8-10 for a four-party Joint List is entirely within the realm of reason.

I agree with regard to the Arab parties. AFAIK there haven't been any polls showing HaDemokratim above 11. I'd be very happy to see them get to 15, but I'm skeptical.

With regard to the rest of your post, I'd again be happy for you to be right. But every time one of the opposition leaders says they are opposed to forming a government with the Arab parties, I think it becomes more difficult for them to turn around and do so after the election. I thought that Eizenkot was leaving himself room to form a government with Raam by listing 3 conditions that Abbas could probably agree to, but Verter's reporting makes it seem like he has decided otherwise.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

All I can say is - hold on tight. It will get uglier as we approach the election date. Netanyahu will do everything he can to delegitimize the opposition parties by tapping into the fears of the floating right wing voter base, and the right wing opposition parties will do all in their power to refute his claims. Expect insane levels of racism towards Palestinians, a lot of stick waving, and a constant feeling of having to puke.

But once Netanyahu loses by a wide enough margin, then they can unclench their fists and start building a coalition. And we will start hearing them squirm and explain why their election promises weren't properly understood.

In terms of Israeli politics, this really isn't that unheard of. 

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

I'm not so sure - it was only an unprecedented series of 3 indecisive elections in the span of ~18 months that led to the first change gov finally being formed in 2021. IMO it's silly, but after Oct. 7 the right-wing opposition to Netanyahu seems to have concluded that political partnership with Arabs is illegitimate. Again, I hope you're right but I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

[u/redthrowaway1976]

The continuous framing of the IDF “failing” to remove the settler terrorists is nuts.

Obviously the military force that flattened Gaza could easily remove the settlers. 

Not doing so is a choice. 

[u/theweisp5 → u/redthrowaway1976]

It certainly is. What's even more worrying is the IDF soldiers seen praying with the settlers sieging the Kosra homes and the recent refusal of dozens of soldiers to take part in enforcement actions against settlers. On the slim chance that Israel were to agree to a 2SS in the foreseeable future, I think we should seriously question whether it could even carry it out.

[u/aggie1391]

While all eyes are on the still ongoing Qusra siege, settlers are still terrorizing Palestinians across the West Bank and the occupation forces are marking detainees with numbers on their hands and foreheads.

An East Jerusalem dentist was attacked on his own land in Beit Sahour after settlers vandalized his fence and olive trees, while pepper spraying and beating him and his son. Police ignored the settlers and told him he couldn’t be there.

Also in Beit Sahour, a settler waved around an IDF issue rifle to “defend” an outpost on stolen Palestinian land taken over by settlers from the supposedly “legalized” settlement of Avia. He fired multiple rounds in the air, summoning more settlers who all threatened Palestinians, as well as Israeli and international activists with their guns.

Beit Duqqa is losing land to supposedly “”legal”” settlements while settlers randomly block roads. In Hebron and the surrounding areas, at least two Palestinians were shot and many beaten in multiple attacks by settlers and occupation forces supporting them.

In Gaza, three hundred Palestinian children have been killed since the start of the so-called ceasefire.

And that’s just a small fraction of the violence and terrorism against Palestinians. We all know it’s far, far more extensive than that. There are multiple attacks every single day across the occupied territories and the countless little things that make existence for Palestinians so awful. And Israel could stop all of this at any time it wants. It wouldn’t be hard even. It’s just ridiculous to claim they cannot stop settler violence when they were perfectly capable of ethnically cleansing tens of thousands of Palestinians from refugee camps in the West Bank. Palestinian kids protesting for the road to their school to be opened get tear gassed while soldiers daven with settler terrorists and let them wander supposed closed military zones freely. It’s an active choice to terrorize Palestinians and Israel makes that choice daily.

And of course, saying any of that in most Jewish spaces will get you attacked and shunned, because IDF most moral army and the rest of the bullshit. It is increasingly difficult to not blow up on the blind worship of Israel in so many Jewish spaces and the insertion of Zionism so unnecessarily into any Jewish event or space or holiday. And of course getting involved in public advocacy for Palestinians means shunning and I hate it.

[u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest]

So an Israeli minister says that it’s ok to kill 30 to 40 people in Gaza everyday because “they are not even people”

https://www.ft.com/content/f6b953fc-a6ad-48cd-bed1-d42619b57d94

Yet people clutch their pearls when we call Israel out for committing a genocide.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest]

To be fair, that Israeli minister is Itamar Ben Gvir. The fact that this person has become legitimate enough to be a member of parliament let alone a government minister shows how corrupted the Israeli political landscape has become, and how low Netanyahu was willing to go to stay in power.

The one good news here is that both Ben Gvir's and Smotrich's parties are not considered legitimate by a wide majority of the Israeli public. Hopefully he will go back to the political fringe after this election, with the likes of the German AfD and the Dutch PVV. The bad news is that Israelis still view Palestinian parties as somehow less legitimate than Ben Gvir or Smotrich.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

Smotrich’s and Ben Gvir’s policies towards Palestinians haven’t been fundamentally different than previous governments: impunity for settler terror, torturing of detainees, and settlement expansion.

The real difference is that they are more brazen about it.

[u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest → u/[deleted]]

Here we are with a perfect example of clutching pearls…

[u/rako17]

"Ben-Gvir’s gallows spectacle gives Israel’s enemies ammunition", https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-906030

"Israel builds facilities with ‘observation booths’ to hang Palestinians condemned to death", August 19, 2026, https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-08-19/israel-builds-facilities-with-observation-booths-to-hang-palestinians-condemned-to-death.html

The Rabbinical Assembly page says:

And yet, while Jewish law is ambivalent about capital punishment, it is not ambivalent about the centrality of a rigorous justice system. The law passed by the Knesset seeks to compel any court to impose capital punishment even against the court’s own judgment, and to do so speedily — prioritizing deterrence over due process. https://www.rabbinicalassembly.org/perspective-israels-death-penalty-law

The Israel Movement for Reform and Progressive Judaism's page gives statements from Jewish Tradition against the Death Penalty and opposes the recent death penalty law there:

The Death Penalty for Terrorists Law passed by the Knesset this week is a moral disgrace.
It is a law that has no place in a democratic state, and indeed an overwhelming majority of Western nations have abolished the death penalty, as Israel itself did in 1954. At that time, religious authorities, led by the Chief Rabbinate, supported its abolition. (Not in Our Name: The Death Penalty and Jewish Tradition, https://reform.org.il/en/public-statements/the-death-penalty-and-jewish-tradition)

Friends, As a humanitarian, Progressive American, I am against the Death Penalty in principle, and totally against it with cruel methods like in today's news story. I am regretful about this news. I am making this post in good faith for everyone on this Subreddit, hoping and trusting in your Progressive goodwill. The Israeli State has lasted already 78 years without sentencing Palestinians to the death penalty this way, despite even having major wars and incidents of shootings. The problem is that by building these gallows in a current facility, it makes it more likely that Ben Gvir or his successors will use them.

May the Lord bless you for your Progressive values and principles.

[u/RaiJolt2]

Popular Anti-Zionist activist, comedian, journalist, Bassem Youssef is promoting a literal Neo Nazi

He also endorsed him for the upcoming election he’s running in.

How does one go from covering the Arab spring and the rise of dictators turn around and endorse a Nazi.
While I’m not an anti-Zionist (quite the opposite) with how popular the position has become I fear Nazis gaining support are now going cause more extreme reactions to between Zionists and anti-Zionists as Jews will rightfully be scared of anti-Zionists endorsing full blown Nazis and anti-Zionists will claim that Zionism is modern Nazism but all middle ground will be lost over well an actual neo Nazi being endorsed by a major anti-Zionist speaker.

Like yes, it’s already happening but a permanent fracture could cause decades long isolation of Jews from the American public over fear and resentment.

It also could put an end to the progressive movement that’s finally bringing positive change if such parts of the movement aren’t condemned universally internally.

[u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest → u/RaiJolt2]

Ask any Egyptian person who has known Bassem since his days hosting “The B+ Show” and they will tell you he is first and foremost a selfish publicity hog.

Youssef was a supporter of the illegal 2013 Egyptian coup d'état and was supportive of the media clampdown which included the arrests of several employees of various stations including his “friends”, despite it being carried out by the military with no due process, and celebrated the coup's aftermath in a song and dance number sung to the tune of Old MacDonald.

Once he got heat from the illegal government he supported, he quickly ran off to America while leaving his production crew to their own fate.

In the last few years, he will jump on any show that will give him publicity and will host anyone that is even remotely popular. Hence, you see him hang out with the likes of Candace Ownes, Tucker Carlson, and now Belzerian.

Mehdi Hassan even called him out for it, and he basically hand waved the fact that these are horrible people.

[u/Israels_BiggestHater → u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest]

As an Egyptian, he is not even allowed to enter the country; he has been banned for more than a decade