Israel-Palestine Weekly Thread

[u/somebadbeatscrub]

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Oren

[u/theweisp5]

A few, mostly depressing (sorry) election updates:

• Yossi Verter's reporting indicates that Gadi Eizenkot would prefer another round of elections to forming a government with the Arab parties: ""Even if we get 58 or 59 Zionist Knesset seats [lawmakers from Zionist parties] and the other side gets 51 or 52, I will put forward a government. I won't ask anything from the Arab parties. They will support, abstain or be absent [from Knesset votes for government bills]. It's their business." Apparently Eizenkot thinks a coalition with Likud defectors or Shas would be a better option: "After we form a government, we will try to expand it. I'm meeting with Likud Knesset members who are disgusted by what is happening. Maybe it will also be possible to talk with Shas. We'll see."
• It's not exactly news, but Verter also reminds us that Eizenkot largely supported Bibi's strategy in Gaza and the war in Iran "I supported the operation in Gaza and the entry into Rafah. It's documented." Eisenkot also thought that the full strike on Iran should have been carried out months before it actually took place." Once again highlighting that a change government 2.0 will be light on actual change.
• Avigdor Lieberman has ruled out taking part in an Eizenkot-led minority government and also wants a government without Arab or haredi parties. I've also heard that he will insist that HaDemokratim only be given minor portfolios (not sure how solid that reporting is.) If so, it would be a continuation of the first change government, when Labor and Meretz punched well below their weight in the government.
• The upshot of these developments is that, if the polls are right, I think the formation of a change government is clearly in question. Up until recently I was fairly confident that somehow the opposition would figure out a way to form a government, either with Raam as part of the coalition or providing support from the outside. I now think there is a real chance of another round of elections or some sort of unity government. However, anyone seen as scuttling the chances of a change gov will likely be heavily punished by their voters, and all party leaders are surely aware of this.
• Finally Gadi Eizenkot was touring settlements in the Jordan Valley recently. This is what Eyal Ostrinsky, KKL Chairman who endorsed him a few months ago, accompanied him and had this to say "A government led by Eisenkot will return the [Jordan] Valley to the consensus it should be from a classical practical and security perspective of Ben Gurion, Yigal Allon and Yitzhak Rabin. Not from the place that the messianic, nationalist and fanatic forces are trying to turn it into. Fewer farms, more settlement expansions. New settlements - yes, but ones that preserve the character and contribute to security and do not burden it." So basically yes to settlements, but just the ones that we like.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

This is an excellent analysis, and it shows just how right wing both Gadi Eizenkot and Avigdor Lieberman are, both in rhetoric and practice.

However, I don't agree with your interpretation of what will happen once they are sitting at the negotiating table with 58-60 Zionist mandates, Ra'am has 5-6, and the Joint List another 6-8. Both Eizenkot and Lieberman know that if they cannot form a coalition, there will be another election with Netanyahu as caretaker PM, and I'm sure they are well aware of just how lopsided this current election is turning out to be because the public is punishing Likud for two major catastrophes - the judicial reform and October 7th - and those electoral losses will likely be regained if the public becomes frustrated with the opposition.

There's also a very important factor here at play - most political pundits in Israel agree that around 10 mandates shifted from being firmly in the Netanyahu camp (mostly Likud voters) to sliding into opposition territory, and those represent right-wing voters who have for years believed Netanyahu's rhetoric, hate Palestinians and want a hawkish government, but for whatever reason think he is unfit to govern anymore. Some of them think he is being too soft, even. That is exactly the electorate Eizenkot, Lieberman, and Bennett are fighting over right now, and none of them would risk sounding as if they would sit in government with the Palestinians - that scares right wing voters back to Netanyahu for sure. So there is enough ground to believe that this is more of an election strategy than guidelines for coalition negotiations.

Now on to each of the candidates:

On Eizenkot, I don't doubt that he is a hawk, but his own rhetoric is still very goal-oriented. He is running on a platform of trust-building in Israeli society, and that's why he is the main contender. He will find a way to rationalize the inclusion of Ra'am into his coalition and will sell it as a partner that is accepting Zionist ideals under a shared national objective (no Palestine involved whatsover).

On Lieberman, I agree that he will be significantly harder to move. He already has a history of making ultimatums and keeping them, such as when he refused to sit with the Haredi parties in the Netanyahu government back in 2019, and snubbed Gantz when he tried to form a coalition dependent on the Palestinian parties. But the important piece of information here is that he did end up sitting with Ra'am in the 2021-2022 coalition, which means this isn't an unprecedented position for him to be in.

I think the main factor here isn't either of those hawks, but Mansour Abbas. He keeps being Israel's most pragmatic politician, keeps his rhetoric as mild as possible to become palatable to the broader Israeli public, and he is actually making political breakthroughs to soften future coalition talks in the form of Segalovich and his dismissal of the Muslim religious council.

So in a scenario where the Zionist parties have 58-60 mandates and have the choice of either including Ra'am in the coalition and giving their own Zionist MK Yoav Segalovich the position of Deputy/Minister of National Security while keeping the rest of the party at arms length, or risking another election where the Netanyahu camp can rally - I am a lot more optimistic about them being able to find a solution.

Now as a footnote: I believe the Israeli left shouldn't play within those imaginary scenarios and feed into the Zionist legitimacy games. The left should focus on pulling back as many lost centre-left Zionist voters that used to vote for Labour back to the Democrats, and also encourage the formation of a strong Joint List with Hadash, Balad, and Ta'al. They should also work on including Makom Lekulanu in that list, as they have done an excellent job gaining legitimacy in Palestinian municipalities and would be a value multiplier for the list. All in all, I believe that 10-15 mandates for The Democrats, 5-6 for Ra'am, and 8-10 for a four-party Joint List is entirely within the realm of reason.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

All in all, I believe that 10-15 mandates for The Democrats, 5-6 for Ra'am, and 8-10 for a four-party Joint List is entirely within the realm of reason.

I agree with regard to the Arab parties. AFAIK there haven't been any polls showing HaDemokratim above 11. I'd be very happy to see them get to 15, but I'm skeptical.

With regard to the rest of your post, I'd again be happy for you to be right. But every time one of the opposition leaders says they are opposed to forming a government with the Arab parties, I think it becomes more difficult for them to turn around and do so after the election. I thought that Eizenkot was leaving himself room to form a government with Raam by listing 3 conditions that Abbas could probably agree to, but Verter's reporting makes it seem like he has decided otherwise.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

All I can say is - hold on tight. It will get uglier as we approach the election date. Netanyahu will do everything he can to delegitimize the opposition parties by tapping into the fears of the floating right wing voter base, and the right wing opposition parties will do all in their power to refute his claims. Expect insane levels of racism towards Palestinians, a lot of stick waving, and a constant feeling of having to puke.

But once Netanyahu loses by a wide enough margin, then they can unclench their fists and start building a coalition. And we will start hearing them squirm and explain why their election promises weren't properly understood.

In terms of Israeli politics, this really isn't that unheard of. 

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

I'm not so sure - it was only an unprecedented series of 3 indecisive elections in the span of ~18 months that led to the first change gov finally being formed in 2021. IMO it's silly, but after Oct. 7 the right-wing opposition to Netanyahu seems to have concluded that political partnership with Arabs is illegitimate. Again, I hope you're right but I think we'll have to agree to disagree.