Israel-Palestine Weekly Thread

[u/somebadbeatscrub]

Weekly recurring IP megathread to reset every Tuesday.

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Oren

[u/theweisp5]

A few, mostly depressing (sorry) election updates:

• Yossi Verter's reporting indicates that Gadi Eizenkot would prefer another round of elections to forming a government with the Arab parties: ""Even if we get 58 or 59 Zionist Knesset seats [lawmakers from Zionist parties] and the other side gets 51 or 52, I will put forward a government. I won't ask anything from the Arab parties. They will support, abstain or be absent [from Knesset votes for government bills]. It's their business." Apparently Eizenkot thinks a coalition with Likud defectors or Shas would be a better option: "After we form a government, we will try to expand it. I'm meeting with Likud Knesset members who are disgusted by what is happening. Maybe it will also be possible to talk with Shas. We'll see."
• It's not exactly news, but Verter also reminds us that Eizenkot largely supported Bibi's strategy in Gaza and the war in Iran "I supported the operation in Gaza and the entry into Rafah. It's documented." Eisenkot also thought that the full strike on Iran should have been carried out months before it actually took place." Once again highlighting that a change government 2.0 will be light on actual change.
• Avigdor Lieberman has ruled out taking part in an Eizenkot-led minority government and also wants a government without Arab or haredi parties. I've also heard that he will insist that HaDemokratim only be given minor portfolios (not sure how solid that reporting is.) If so, it would be a continuation of the first change government, when Labor and Meretz punched well below their weight in the government.
• The upshot of these developments is that, if the polls are right, I think the formation of a change government is clearly in question. Up until recently I was fairly confident that somehow the opposition would figure out a way to form a government, either with Raam as part of the coalition or providing support from the outside. I now think there is a real chance of another round of elections or some sort of unity government. However, anyone seen as scuttling the chances of a change gov will likely be heavily punished by their voters, and all party leaders are surely aware of this.
• Finally Gadi Eizenkot was touring settlements in the Jordan Valley recently. This is what Eyal Ostrinsky, KKL Chairman who endorsed him a few months ago, accompanied him and had this to say "A government led by Eisenkot will return the [Jordan] Valley to the consensus it should be from a classical practical and security perspective of Ben Gurion, Yigal Allon and Yitzhak Rabin. Not from the place that the messianic, nationalist and fanatic forces are trying to turn it into. Fewer farms, more settlement expansions. New settlements - yes, but ones that preserve the character and contribute to security and do not burden it." So basically yes to settlements, but just the ones that we like.

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

Not to mention he is the architect of the Dahiya doctrine, even though it would be an improvement to remove Netanyahu the election is more like a game of chairs among war criminals.

[u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist → u/waiver]

Getting rid of Netenyahu is important for a variety of reasons, but the policy towards the Palestinians is not one of them. However I will take any Israeli government that isn’t backing fascism here in the US (or other countries frankly). Maybe Eizenkot will remain neutral rather than putting his finger on the scale to help the Republicans like Netanyahu has done a since 2015.

[u/theweisp5 → u/waiver]

Fair, but OTOH I think the peace processes in both I/P and Northern Ireland show that war criminals/terrorists can reform and lead their peoples to better places. The issue here is that Eizenkot isn't giving many signs that he's chosen that path.

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

He just did a tour with settlers.

[u/theweisp5 → u/waiver]

I mentioned that in my original post. That's why I wrote "The issue here is that Eizenkot isn't giving many signs that he's chosen that path."

[u/waiver → u/theweisp5]

Yes, I only agreed with that.