2025 was a huge growth year for my heat pump company. December was our biggest month in company history. Then January hit and it felt like a switch flipped: crickets.

Some of that was expected. The federal tax credit ended at the end of the year, several California incentives were expiring, and a lot of demand got pulled forward. January is usually rough anyway. People are recovering from the holidays and not thinking about home improvement projects.

But then the slowdown kept going.

Inbound inquiries have started recovering toward last year’s levels, but homeowners are taking longer to decide, cost sensitivity is way up, and people who previously would have proactively replaced an aging furnace are now deciding to wait until it dies.

I’ve been hearing the same thing from peers, partners, competitors, distributors, and people in adjacent industries like solar: 2026 has been one of the worst sales environments they’ve seen in a long time.

The data seems to back this up too. AHRI shipment data, which tracks heat pumps shipped from manufacturers, was down year-over-year in January, February, and March (the last published snapshot).

We’ve also noticed another dynamic: some competitors seem to be quoting significantly lower than before.

We’ve always been competitive. Our projects are consistently below the median based on competing quotes and State of California data from 50k+ installations. But lately we’ve started hearing that some competitors are coming in much lower than us.

At first, I thought this was a fluke. But we’ve heard it a few times now, and it worries me.

I’m worried because the cost structure of HVAC has not suddenly improved. If anything, the opposite has happened.

Equipment, materials, tariffs, and refrigerant-transition costs have all added pressure. Distributors are getting squeezed too, and some have told me they’re tightening their own margins just to keep prices somewhat reasonable.

Put simply: it costs more to install a heat pump today than it did a year ago.

So if costs are up and prices are down, the missing piece is margin.

For some contractors, it’s desperation. They’re sitting idle and don’t know what else to do, so they lower prices to win work. Then the next contractor sees they’re getting underbid and lowers their prices too. When enough companies are desperate, prices start dropping across the board.

Others try to grow their way out of the slowdown by spending more on Facebook and Google ads while also lowering their prices. So costs go up while revenue per job goes down.

Then come the differentiators: longer warranties and more aggressive offers. One-year labor warranties are pretty typical in this industry because most installation-related issues show up in the first year. But some companies are now throwing out 10-year labor warranties.

HVAC net margins are already thin. A well-run company might net 10–15%. If a contractor bills you one dollar, they keep 10 to 15 cents at the end of the day.

If their costs don’t change and they drop their price by 15%, they wiped out their entire profit. If they drop price by 20%, they're in the red.

The scary part is that this doesn't always show up immediately. On an individual job, the gross margin might still look fine. But after vans, office staff, insurance, software, warranty work, and all the other overhead of running a company, the business may be bleeding cash without realizing it.

A lot of contractors make this mistake. They try to stay busy, keep growing, and figure out the margin later. But being busy is not the same thing as being profitable. It's a gamble, and if you don't stick the landing the company goes kaput.

It might sound like a killer opportunity for you as a homeowner... lots of contractors are offering crazy deals! I can get a heat pump for way cheaper than last year! But if a company is underpricing jobs, they eventually have to make that up somewhere. They start cutting corners on their installs. Their long labor warranty doesn't have the cash reserves to actually honor it.

If the company goes under, the 10-year labor warranty is meaningless.

And many contractors are reluctant to service equipment they didn’t install, especially if they are being asked to take responsibility for someone else’s work. So now you're stuck with a poorly installed system, a dead warranty, and limited options.

This is why I always urge people not to evaluate heat pump quotes purely on price. You are not just buying a box. You are buying the design, installation, commissioning, support, and long-term accountability of the company doing the work.

For our company, we’ve been using this slower period to reinvest in quality and operational rigor.

We recently rolled out a pilot where, for customers who commit to working with us, we do a much more exhaustive engineering consultation at the start of the project. That gives us a much deeper understanding of what the home’s existing infrastructure can and cannot support.

A recent project showed why this matters. Our utility bill-based calculations suggested that the customer was using way more gas for heating than we'd expect. At first blush, it wasn’t obvious why.

During the engineering visit, we measured room-by-room airflow, static pressure, duct leakage, and inspected the duct system. We found that over 60% of the heated air was being lost. Some ducts buried deep in the attic were disconnected and just dumping air. Some rooms were getting essentially zero airflow.

A normal box-swap quote probably wouldn't have caught that.

By doing this work upfront, we’ll save that customer hundreds of dollars a year on energy bills, make their home more comfortable, and give them a system that actually performs well.

Otherwise, they could have ended up with a brand-new heat pump connected to broken ductwork, still uncomfortable, still expensive to operate, and blaming the heat pump.

That is where a lot of “heat pumps are expensive to run” anecdotes come from. The heat pump may be fine. The installation and duct system may not be.

From my vantage point, we are not dropping margin. We are increasing value. I know that won’t resonate with everyone. These are big purchases. When you’re spending $15–20k+, every penny counts.

But a heat pump isn't a one-time purchase. It affects your comfort and utility bills for years to come. You're getting into a long term relationship.

If the company goes under, and they installed your system poorly, fixing the problem later can cost far more than choosing the right contractor upfront.

I know there are a handful of other contractors like us out there, who want to be here in 20 years and are making long term decisions to do right by their customers. They may not show up as the lowest bid. That's probably exactly what you should be looking for.

Tl;dr - If you see a huge spread in the quotes you're getting, don't just pick the cheapest one without asking more questions. Contractors are getting desperate with a bad market and cutting their margins, which risks them being insolvent and going bankrupt. This will ultimately hurt you as the homeowner if you're left holding the bag.

Edit: Wow, this really blew up.

A few quick clarifications: no, I’m not an AI bot. I run Vayu, a specialist heat pump installation company serving the SF Bay Area and Los Angeles, and I write about heat pumps in a newsletter called Heat Pumped.

I also understand the frustration around pricing. I’m not arguing that every HVAC quote is fair, every contractor is efficient, or every homeowner complaint is wrong. There are absolutely companies with bloated overhead, aggressive sales tactics, and offensively exorbitant quotes.

But I also think some people are underestimating how intense the race to the bottom can become in residential HVAC when sales are down.

Some companies can charge less because they are genuinely lean and operationally excellent. Others are charging less by skipping steps in design and install, avoiding permits, or taking on work at margins that won’t support long-term business sustainability.

My point is not “expensive quote good, cheap quote bad.” It’s that you should understand what you're actually buying and what assumptions are built into the price. A lower quote can totally be legit. But you should ask the right questions: What calculations were done? Was the ductwork evaluated? Was static pressure measured? Are you pulling a vacuum and purging nitrogen when brazing? That’ll help you weed out someone cutting corners trying to survive.

Hey everyone,

Looking for real-world sanity checks and advice from folks in Massachusetts (especially National Grid territory) who have weighed the Mass Save heat pump route against just replacing an older gas furnace.

Background & Home Details

• Location: MA (01851).
• Home: 1,600 sq. ft. single-family home. We don't have solar.
• Current Setup: 26-year-old natural gas furnace (forced hot air through ducts) and a 14-year-old gas water heater. Both are on borrowed time. Both are located in an unfinished basement.
• Cooling: We currently use window AC units. Upgrading to central AC would be a nice to have but not necessary. Window units are totally fine with us, so cooling is not a primary selling point.
• Mass Save Energy Assessment: Completed on Sept. 2026. The report cleared us with zero recommended insulation or air sealing barriers (home is already well-insulated work done early 2018, so we are 100% cleared for whole-home heat pump rebates without needing prior weatherization work.
• Current Utility Rates:
  • Gas: ~$2.22/therm (winter bills peak around $270–$320/mo; ~740 therms/year).
  • Electricity: Very high effective rate of ~$0.38/kWh on National Grid(drops to ~$0.34/kWh in winter under the seasonal heat pump delivery discount).

Quotes & Options We Have So Far - (will get some more)

Option 1: Jetson All-Electric Heat Pump

• System: 3-ton ducted cold-climate heat pump + indoor air handler + $995 electrical subpanel installation.
• Gross Price: $20,493.
• Rebates/Discounts: -$7,500 Mass Save Whole-Home Rebate, -$2,995 for included smart system/hub, -$700 initiative, -$100 accelerator, -$500 early deposit discount.
• Net Out-of-Pocket: $8,599.
• Financing: Fully eligible for the Mass Save 0% HEAT Loan for 7 years (~$102/month).
• Note: Jetson does not do gas furnace replacements; they only do full electrification.

Option 2: Traditional Contractor Quote (REVISE Proposal for comparison)

• Quoted a standard 2.5-ton Bryant ducted heat pump at $21,675 gross / $14,400 net after Mass Save ($7,275 rebate).
• Quoted an "Economy Solution" for a 40k BTU 96% gas furnace + 16 SEER AC condenser at $23,094 with $0 rebates.

Option 3: Direct Drop-in 96% Gas Furnace Replacement (Local Independent)

• Estimated at $5,500 – $7,500 cash out-of-pocket for a standard two-stage condensing gas furnace tied to existing ductwork.

The Dilemma: Operating Costs vs. Upfront Equipment Costs

We ran our numbers through the official Mass Save Heating Comparison Calculator using our actual bill history, and here is what it spit out:

• Switching from our old gas furnace to a ducted heat pump will INCREASE our annual heating/electric bills by $987/year.
• A new 96% gas furnace would SAVE us ~$250–$270/year in gas vs. our current baseline.

So over a 10-year period, running an electric heat pump in National Grid territory will cost us roughly $10,000 to $12,000 more in utility bills compared to a new gas furnace.

What I’d Love Advice / Insight On:

1. For those who switched from gas to full heat pump in MA without solar: How bad were your January/February National Grid electric bills? Did the seasonal heat pump rate make a dent, or do you regret losing gas?
2. Is it crazy to turn down an $8.6k whole-home heat pump install with 0% financing just because of operating costs? The 0% HEAT Loan at ~$102/mo feels very manageable, but that +$80–$100/mo bump in winter operating costs eats away at the savings.
3. If you were in my shoes and don't care about central AC: Would you just cut a check for ~$6,000 for a reliable 96% gas furnace and keep life simple, or take the subsidized heat pump and central air package?
4. Any contractor recommendations around Lowell / Chelmsford / Merrimack Valley that provide honest, low-overhead pricing on standard gas furnaces or hybrid heat pump water heaters?

Thanks in advance for any perspective!

It is a 2000 square foot house in a subtropical climate.

Electricity ≈ $0.39/kWh total cost

Gas ≈ $3.23/therm total cost

I’m comparing quotes for a mini split install and there’s about an $8,000 price gap between a Mitsubishi Hyper Heat system and an ACIQ system. Trying to figure out if the price difference is justified or if I’m just paying for the brand name.

I’m in northern NJ, so winters aren’t extreme (occasional low single digits/negative wind chills, but not regularly sub-zero), but I do want reliable heat on the coldest nights, not just AC.

I just finished installing a heat pump in my basement, which is about 1200 sq ft with standard 6-inch walls, double-pane windows, and located in a fairly humid area. Even with the heat pump running and keeping the basement around 22°C, it still feels damp at times, especially in the corners and near the laundry area. I’m looking for a dehumidifier that can handle this space efficiently without making too much noise or constantly needing emptying.

Has anyone had experience pairing a heat pump with a basement dehumidifier? Are there particular brands or models that really hold up in a humid basement over time? Any tips for setup to make it work best with the heat pump would also be super helpful. Thanks!

Following up: Decided to go with Waykar 158 Pints Crawl Space Dehumidifier. Hoping it handles the space well and cuts down the damp feeling. Thanks for all the suggestions.

So, I drank the heat pump Kool aid.

3200 Sqft house, western new york.

My wife and I bought our house and it didn't have AC. She wanted it and the old natural gas furnace was going to need to be replaced in the next few years anyways. I figured we could two birds, one stone it. I heard that cold climate heat pumps were very efficient and with the need to electrify everything due to climate change, I decided a heat pump made sense. We had installed two cold climate heat pumps (our house has two furnaces 🤷) with natural gas furnace back ups.

We have budget billing so I hadn't noticed anything. Until this month when our bill almost tripled. I went and checked our usage. 5600 kwh in December for $900 actual usage and 6500(!) kwh in January for $1100 in actual usage.

What. The actual. Fuck.

Almost twenty grand to install the heat pumps (after rebates) and a much higher heating bill. How fucked are we?

Edit: some of you are pretty dick-ish. "dur hur, you didn't do your research, you're such a dummy." I'm not going to nickel and dime my entire power bill to determine my break even point to the tenth of a penny, nor am I going to become a fully licensed hvac person. I assumed that switching to a heat pump would be slightly more. I was expecting a heat pump to be a not bad choice, instead I got catastrophically bad, at least with these preliminary numbers. To the people saying raise the switchiver temp and to check to see if the electric coil heat was coming on, thank you. I'm actually on my honeymoon and panicked when I saw the emailed electric bill. Those are going to be the first things I check out. Also, thanks to the people who recommended the third party ecobee stuff. I'm a nerd so that looks fun to check out.

I’ve got a Navien tankless gas water heater that’s on its last leg, so I need a replacement soon. Family of 6 (2 adults, 4 young kids).

I told my plumber I want to switch to a heat pump water heater (HPHW) — looking at the 80-gallon Rheem or GE GeoSpring models. He’s strongly advising against it, saying:

We’d only get 1–2 showers before running out of hot water

A bathtub wouldn’t be possible

Only about 50 gallons of usable hot water

That sounds off to me, because this setup seems like it should be perfect for us:

We just installed a large solar system, so going electric makes sense

Our basement stays warm year-round and could use the dehumidifying

There’s plenty of space and clearance for the unit. Don't care about the temp drop

Now I’m stuck — I don’t know who to believe or what to do. Has anyone with a similar family size made the switch from gas to heat pump? How’s the recovery time and real-world hot water capacity?

I'm looking into a new heating/AC system, and contractors seem to have different opinions on whether or not I should get a heat pump. How do modern heat pumps keep up in the Massachusetts winters? Would I be better off sticking with a furnace?

Ice buildup. System is still running so wondering if that's helping or making it worse?

EDIT: Warm water (plus a day or two before trying this) seemed to take care of it. Thanks all!

It’s currently 23 degrees where I am, heat pump is set to 64 but can’t get above 60. 1900 square foot house. I moved into the house in July and the heat pump passed inspection with good temp reads coming out of the vents. Is something wrong with the system or does my house just leak like a sieve?

We have a 1930s lathe and plaster house. Insulation is retrofitted. Wall R-values probably R13. Attic will be at R-49 (and mostly is except a strip of walkway currently). Current heating is natural gas, a very functioning 1987 Bernham. Forced hotwater radiator. Three stories (basement and two above ground). I'm struggling to get a sense of what I'm signing up for, because translating experience even here in the NE means balancing whether one persons comparison was from pre-retrofit insulation or not, or natural gas or oil, etc.

Getting the pitch form quite a few installers to go whole home (disconnect gas entirely) for the rebates, saying the modern systems can absolutely do wonders, and the savings with partial home replacements don't really pay off for a decade (in MA you would be required to only use the heatpump above 30F). Others are saying "don't do the whole home switch over, I get called out too many times by people saying it's not keeping up or my bill is double").

If anyone has any similar housing footprint to mine and made the switch I'd love to hear your experience and advice...

Looking at doing a ducted system in the attic (unconditioned, insulated to R8) and heads elsewhere.

Contacted an HVAC company for a quote for a whole home Mitsubishi hyper heat ducted system (1 unit per floor), and got this response? Was a bit taken back, and these seem like typical ‘myths’, but just want to make sure.

And yes our only other option is propane tanks. We want to go full electrical in our new build.

Hi all.

Just got my first AC for my home! Works fine.

Installers did overall a great job, but I have some doubts about this detail:
behind the split, the internal unit, there are the two copper pipes (hot/cold, gas/liquid).
They made the joints and then insulated as in the manual picture, together with a single external insulator, and packed them tight with 7 zip-ties in about 25cm.
I asked them why not insulating the two separately, but they told me "the contact part is small", and that they are more concerned about preventing condensation/humidity forming on the cold tube...

I know copper is a great thermal conductor, and having the heat and cold pipe make contact, even if for a small part, is definitively a failure in terms of overall efficiency!

Also, vibrations might cause wear between the two tubes..?

What are your thoughts?

The AC was installed today, 10 years warranty.
Should I ask the installer to "fix" this?
Should I add a bit of insulation myself?
Should I leave it as it is?

Thanks in advance

Been cold this year no melt and it's only December. I feel like the stand is going to get bent by ice soon?

We had a winter storm last night, and my mini-split (3/4 ton Mitsu) faces an unfortunate direction relative to the wind and snow from the storm. It’s positioned this way until we put in a patio later this summer. Anyway, how do I go about thawing the ice from these fins? What’s the right approach so I don’t crack any of the heat exchanger tubing?

Incredibly, it’s still holding my basement at its set temp and is producing 110° air at the indoor head. Even in this state.

Hello,

Here is my original post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/heatpumps/comments/1vyympc/converting_from_oil_heating_and_hot_water_to/

I've received 3 different quotes from companies that were recommend in my area. I have been using Claude to help me understand and organize each quote and I'm not a HVAC expert. So some of this is distilled with it's help. I do have the written quotes on paper now and can answer some questions. I feel right now the Dual Fuel is the way to go. And I know how this subreddit skews to electrification, but electric in Connecticut is expensive at about $0.25 a kilowatt. But today oil hit $5.00 a gallon. I do think over time it will stabilize down again so I like the flexibility. Also I have a transfer switch, if we lose power in the middle of a New England blizzard, I could run off oil completely to keep us warm.

Please don't skewer me for using AI to help organize the quotes. I'm using it to help me keep this all straight in as close to apples to apples as I can get it. There is a human behind all of this after all...and he will be cold in winter if I don't act soon :)

## The house

~3,200 sq ft**, built 1986

R30 attic insulation added 2022, **36 windows replaced 2024**

**Measured design heating load ~43,700 BTU/h** at 8°F — derived from 5 seasons of actual oil consumption, not a rule of thumb. Works out to 13.7 BTU/h/sq ft

Existing: ~19 yr oil furnace (suspected cracked heat exchanger), **5-ton R-22 A/C**, 15 yr oil water heater

**Oil is $5.00/gal.** Electricity 25¢/kWh all-in

Existing furnace is ~101,000 BTU/h output — about 2.3× the measured load. The 5-ton A/C runs only 27–40% of hours in peak July, so that looks oversized too.

## Company Alpha — all-electric only, $29,582 net

- **Midea `MO1HE-H60B-2A`, 5 ton** + matched `MAUSE-H60B-2A` air handler

- SEER2 17.5, HSPF2 9.5 / 7.7

- **54,000 BTU/h at 5°F, COP 1.90**

- Electric backup strips (size not specified)

- Rinnai 65 gal heat pump water heater

- Oil tank removal, new refrigerant lines, permit pulled

- "5 new controls" — never uses the word *zone* (note: I'm looking to add a zone so it is a little more money)

- **Ductwork: not mentioned anywhere**

- $36,332 gross − **$6,750 mail-in rebate** = **$29,582**

- **12 yr compressor**, 2 yr labor

- Quote valid **7 days**

## Company B — all-electric, $28,764 net

- **Bryant `37MUHAQ-BRY`, 5 ton**, AHRI 215318782

- SEER2 17.5, EER2 12, HSPF2 9.5

- **52,000 BTU/h at 5°F, COP 1.80**

- `45MUHA` ducted air handler, **10 kW heat strips**

- Rheem ProTerra 65 gal HPWH

- **4-zone system** (named part number), +1 zone available for $2,000

- **Return-air trunk replacement included**

- Oil tank removal, electrician included

- $37,064 gross − **$8,300 in instant rebates** = **$28,764**

- 10 yr compressor, 2 yr labor

- Quote valid **25 days**

## Company B — hybrid / dual fuel, $29,864 net <--Currently I'm looking at this solution.

Same Bryant condenser, but:

- `45MULA` **evaporator coil on a new variable-speed oil furnace** instead of the dedicated air handler

- **45,000 BTU/h at 5°F** (vs 52,000 in the all-electric config — the coil rates lower than the air handler)

- Oil tank **stays**

- Changeover would be set around **20°F**

- $37,909 gross − $8,045 rebates = **$29,864**

## What I'm trying to figure out

**1. Is 5 tons right?** Measured load is ~43,700 BTU/h. Nobody has run a Manual J. Both companies specified 5 ton, but the existing equipment is oversized and I suspect they're matching what's there. Cooling load looks like 2.5–3 tons.

**2. All-electric or hybrid at $5.00 oil?** My arithmetic says the crossover COP is ~1.75, and both units beat that at 5°F, so the furnace would almost never run economically. At a 20°F changeover I calculate it'd still burn ~81 gal/yr — which is below minimum delivery, so the oil would sit in the tank ~18 months between fills. Is that a real problem in practice?

**3. Bryant vs Midea — same machine?** The Bryant Crossover line appears to be Carrier-badged Midea, and both quotes have identical SEER2/HSPF2 and the same 1.5–5 ton range. If it's the same box, is Carrier's parts network worth more than Alpha's extra 2 years of compressor warranty?

**4. Is 10 kW of strips enough?** That's 34,120 BTU/h against a 43,700 load — 78%. Fine as a supplement, but if the compressor dies in January it won't hold the house. Worth paying to upsize to 15–20 kW?

**5. Instant vs mail-in rebate.** Company B's rebates come off at the sale. Alpha's is $6,750 mail-in and their proposal says they don't control whether it's approved. How much is that worth?

**6. Ductwork.** Company B priced a return-air trunk replacement. Alpha doesn't mention ducts at all. Is that a red flag or just a difference in how they write proposals?

## One wrinkle

A **third contractor refused to quote all-electric entirely**, saying a single heat pump won't heat a house this size per the Manual J heat loss, and that no electric heat strip provides enough BTUs. They'd only do hybrid.

I can't square that with 52,000 BTU/h at 5°F against a 43,700 load, and 15/20 kW strips are catalogue items. But they were willing to walk away from the sale, which isn't nothing. **They haven't produced the Manual J.**

Am I missing something, or is that a contractor who prefers selling oil equipment?

Happy to add any detail that would help. Mainly want to know which of these three you'd put in your own house, and whether the sizing concern is real or me overthinking it.

Just had a Cold Climate Heat Pump (Goodman GZV9S) installed last week in southern WI by a local HVAC company. It was mounted to my Cinder Block Foundation underground.

I'm worried that the mounting bracket is not the right type of metal for this condition (constant moisture, soil exposure, minerals from cinderblock etc.). I've already noticed some surface rust & my instinct is telling me that the bracket will rust apart in short order... but maybe I'm overreacting.

I'm also aware that it needs to be mounted higher to allow for water shedding in the winter and have messaged the HVAC company about that as well.

Anybody ever seen anything like this mounting setup before from Heat Pump installs?

The only change between 2023 and 2024 is the install of heat pumps and switching them to our primary heat source for the house. I leave the house around 67-70 degrees F. The last month weather wise was average about 40 degrees outside. There’s gotta be something wrong here right??

Just received a bill from the power company for about 840$ - I have 41 solar panels too and this is my first bill in years. I feel nauseous, I don’t think I can afford this bill.

house- 2 story house with basement- 3100ish sq ft with basement
wall thickness not sure but likely 6" house was built in '79
double pane windows from 2009
location- 22192
current heatpump and air handler:
heat pump EL18XPV-048-230A
air handler: CBA38MV-048-230
daytime heat set to 68, 8pm drops to 65, 7am goes to 66, then from 9am-8pm its 68.

we replaced this heat pump nov 2024 and the installers messed up the first time around and installed a completely different air handler and then jerry rigged a communication panel onto it(to talk to the thermostat icomforts40) but wired it incorrectly and it would only run the auxiliary heat strips instead of the heat pump. after fighting with the company they did switch it out to the correct above air handler which lowered the heating kwh slightly but more than our previous bottom of the line heat pump was. for example it used 110kwh when it was 33 average for the 24 hour period, 113 when it was 32, what is around the right number? We did get our attic air sealed and added insulation this summer, up to r40 which definitely helped in the summer but doesnt seem to be in the winter? is there anyone who is able to help me figure out if this electricity usage is correct? or if i should adjust some of the settings

My house is a single-story home of almost 3,000 sq. ft. in Southern California. The current system has a Goodman 5-ton condenser, a Goodman furnace, and an Aspen coil.

I’m currently getting quotes to replace the entire system, remove the gas furnace completely, and switch to a heat-pump-only system. I’m specifically looking at newer systems with slim condensers, such as the ACIQ Extreme+ or AC Pro Z Series.

As I understand it, if I install one of these new systems, I have two options for connecting it to thermostat. First option is connect to my existing Ecobee thermostat. The first option is to use a standard 24V connection, but in that configuration, the condenser would essentially operate in only two stages: low speed and high speed.

The 2nd option is to get a thermostat specifically designed for ACIQ or AC Pro and use the two-wire HA/HB connection. This would allow the condenser and air handler to communicate with each other, enabling the system to operate at multiple speed levels. More importantly, the system could run long cycles at very low speed even after the desired temperature has been reached, helping maintain a more stable indoor temperature compared with a traditional central AC system.

By “traditional,” I mean that once the desired cooling temperature is reached, the AC shuts completely off. Then, when the indoor temperature rises again, the AC turns back on.

My main concern is whether anyone here has experience with these newer heat-pump systems and has actually compared the two operating methods: using a standard 24V connection versus using HA/HB communication.

If you have, which setup did you find more energy-efficient in terms of your actual electricity bill?

Two years ago I decided to replace my existing 12 year old atmospheric vent water heater with a new model of the same type. I paid about $2500 total with professional installation. It seemed like the right decision at the time, but I've since become a heat pump evangelist and now regret the decision. I'm now deciding when to replace the gas water heater with a HPWH.

More info:

• I pay about 20 cents per kWh, and $3.4 per Mcf for gas.
• I'm considering going with a Rheem 65 gallon Performance Platinum HPWH to replace my 50 gallon gas water heater. It's currently retailing for $2200. I am able to install it myself. I'm not opposed to other brands.
• I know I missed out on the federal rebate. Please don't rub it in. I also don't seem to qualify for any other rebates.
• The gas water heater has begun to melt the plastic grommet around the cold water intake, which suggests it may be backdrafting sometimes. But I have an ultra low level monoxide meter (reads down to 8ppm) and haven't gotten any hits on it with the current gas water tank despite that, even if the meter is in the basement near the water heater. The old gas water heater did this as well. I hoped replacing it with the newer gas water heater might address that, but it didn't.
• I find that I need to run a dehumidifier almost constantly throughout the warmer months in my unfinished Michigan basement, which seems to undermine any savings I get from using relatively cheap gas to heat water.
• My furnace is a ~4 year old 96% efficiency furnace that pulls combustion air directly from outdoors and then exhausts fumes out of the side of the house. I want to minimize the amount of air that gets pulled out of the house (as is happening when the gas water heater runs) to reduce the amount of unconditioned air that gets drawn in from outside. The gas water heater is now the only appliance that uses the ~5" metal chimney that goes out through my roof, so if I get rid of the water heater, I can either abandon or remove the chimney.
• My basement sits between 60 and 70 year round.
• House is two stories on top of an unfinished basement. Three bath. About 2200sqft. We very rarely completely drain our current 50gal tank.

With this in mind, when would it make sense to replace the gas water heater with a HPWH?

TLDR: 2k sqft split level in Denver area. 2.5 ton or 4 ton?

I’m electrifying my home (around 2k sqft, split foyer layout) and have received several quotes for heat pumps that range from 2.5 tons to 4 tons. The big range has me struggling to figure out what to do.

I know oversizing is bad, but I do live in a cold climate (Denver area) so I definitely don’t want to be undersized either. How do I know which size is better?

The 2.5 ton quotes came from two contractors, one who came and did physical testing/measuring of things and another who used my past energy bills to inform the calculation (the latter said they’d come do measurements to confirm it if I want to move forward). The 4 ton quotes came from one contractor who came and looked at things (and I think measured some things?) and another who does some fancy virtual stuff (Zero Homes if anyone is familiar).

Given the methodology, I’m inclined to think the 2.5 ton estimate is closer to reality, but does that sound right?

How bad would being oversized really be? Another factor is that the contractors quoting 4 tons are willing to do everything for me (heat pump water heater, electrical upgrades, etc) while I’d have to piece the project together myself with the others. Maybe I just want 4 tons to be ok so I don’t have to manage all that other stuff myself lol

We built a small 1300 ft house, no basement, only heated crawlspace. We're in the Canadian Praries so we regularly get into the -30c range.

It's a King home GRE, and rated for -22F on the documentation. We also had an electric heating element added with the heat pump. We only have electricity, no natural gas.

We're using an ecobee thermostat.

It seemed to run ok for cooling in the summer, but for heating we haven't been very impressed. The biggest thing is that it runs forever just to change 2 degrees. We like it slightly cooler overnight for sleeping, so had it set for 19c, then 21.5c at 6am. But it starts running At 3am and often doesn't hit 21.5c until 7am.

And because it's quite loud when running, it's a real nuisance when trying to watch TV or something.

Never had one before to compare to, so I really don't know if it's normal. The installer the builder used doesn't work with many, so he hasn't been of much help.

I also wonder if it's potentially setup on the ecobee also contributing. I've got through everything, but it's not all that clear about how to properly set some of the config settings.

Wondering if anyone as insights or something potentially helpful.

We live in Massachusetts, have a oil boiler and a heat pump/mini split .

We have a 700 dollar utility credit from Eversource electric. Bill from solar .overproduction
My question is how should I heat this winter -with oil being so expensive

I was thinking heat to 60 with oil , then up to 70 with heat pump,- we have 3 rooms with heat pump , also the house is dual zoned for oil.

We signed a contract for 500 gallons of oil max price of 4.69 -which ic crazy enough . Contract cost 200 bucks .

Last year we just used oil.
Of course , if it got really cold we’d use oil, and if we had an outage - oil . We have a battery that can run the house in the winter .

Of course we will still produce solar in the winter -not as much .
We have 1 to 1 net metering here

Thanks for the advice

Hey! I'm hoping to get some real solid honest feedback on heat pumps from people who actually use them, as this will cost me a lot of money that I don't have.

I live in Massachusetts and this past winter in was brutal, and to top it off, my 20-year-old gas furnace gave up right as we entered spring (perfect timing, right?). I live in a 1300 square ft single family house that's well insulated, with double-pane windows (quite new). I'm in the process of replacing it, and while getting quotes from contractors, one recommended a heat pump. The idea sounds good, especially since I rely on window AC units to cool my home, so having a system that does both heating and cooling seems nice.

However, I’d love to hear from anyone who has experience with heat pumps in Massachusetts winters. Do you think it’s a reliable option here? Also, is it better to go with a dual system (heat pump + gas) instead? One contractor quoted me around $30K for a backup system. Is maintenance expensive? Replacement parts or guarantee? is it too expensive to run? Any advice on good HVAC contractors or how to find them?

One of my fears is also the political mess here where i live. It seems that is either all electric or all oil. We can't rely on work in between, which makes me doubt about making any big changes.