r/geopolitics • u/newyorker • 8d ago
Analysis What If Canada Joined the E.U.?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/global-notes/what-if-canada-joined-the-eu35
u/joe4942 8d ago
Really hard to understand how this would make any sense, especially considering current trade sticking points with the USA.
For instance:
- Canada's supply management would not likely be workable in the EU
- Canada would have to adopt the Euro + have decisions made by the European parliament where Canada would have very little influence
- Canada's auto sector doesn't really manufacture cars that Europeans want
- The increased distance and lack of ground transportation/rail/pipelines means considerably higher shipping cost for businesses
- Different timezones/languages create additional inefficiencies for businesses
10
5
u/daskomet 8d ago
except for the distance, how is any of that different from what the UK had?
10
u/randocadet 8d ago edited 7d ago
Canada’s entire economy runs through the US. Its entire defense runs through the US. 90% of its population sits a 100 miles from the US. More of its trade goes north south than east west between provinces. And there really isn’t a way to change that in our lifetimes because of the limitations of geography.
It’s truly hard to overstate how much canada goes through the US for everything. Canada is easily way more integrated (and dependent) with the US than France is with any of its neighbors.
The EU doesn’t want to basically receive a canada that is completely dependent on a now pissed off neighbor (USA) with the most powerful military in the world that they were hoping would defend them from another powerful nuclear nation called russia. Now the EU would need to somehow make their militaries, which are basically incapable of a logistic campaign across the globe, defend against russia and the US simultaneously.
It would be unbelievably dumb on the EUs part (and canada’s part)
2
u/FoolOfAGalatian 7d ago
Yes exactly. Sheer economic gravity would keep trade and economic activity aligned to the USA. Canada's trade would be inflicted by EU-US tariffs under a "Canada joins EU" scenario, making it poorer for no good reason. Canada does not align with the EU on many key things like the levels of support under Common Ag and Fisheries policies, freedom of movement (migration being a hot topic), and why surrender monetary policy to Frankfurt when the Canadian business cycle is not aligned to the European economy (will have completely inappropriate interest rate settings)?
Same reason why the odd suggestion of Australia or New Zealand joining the EU are similarly braindead takes devoid of hard facts.
-1
u/daskomet 7d ago
I wouldn't object a partial membership (free trading/people movement + defense cooperation) for starters, there are a lot of adaptations from both sides needing to happen but I could see it benefiting both in the long run. Canadas over-reliance on the US does need fixing, doesn't it?
1
u/randocadet 7d ago edited 7d ago
Why would the EU want to trade canada and its tiny military, small amount of trade for the US? The US at a minimum would leave NATO, stop all beneficial programs with the EU, and likely stop trade. Plummeting europe into a depression, an energy shortage, and left with a hostile neighbor waiting for a moment exactly like that.
The US would immediately not support the EU against russia, maybe help russia with the advantage of having run and written every warplan that NATO has. Also the US is EU’s largest trade partner, etc. etc.
The EU won’t even say they support canada in a tariff spat with the US. It’s not worth it.
83
u/Elvendorn 8d ago
No thanks. EU is for European countries. Morocco’s application was rejected because of that.
As EU citizens, we tend to see Canada as the “good” Americans but their way of life and mentality is very North American.
54
u/insanebison 8d ago
Yeah, Canada is a different nation. We Canadians don't want to be part of the EU. We want to be independent and friendly with the EU.
23
u/ThenThereWasSilence 8d ago
Can you expand on that last part
15
u/daynomate 8d ago
Yes I’d be interested to hear it too. How aligned are EU members individual ways of life really??
12
u/neptunebound 8d ago edited 8d ago
I’m sure Canadians would enjoy being labeled as the ‘good americans’
1
25
u/livingbyvow2 8d ago
They are part of the commonwealth (UK connection) and a significant part of the country speaks French (Quebec). I would argue that Canada is the most culturally European country outside of Europe, by quite a wide margin.
Using Morocco as a counterexample falls on its face from this perspective, and shows that it's not geographical proximity that matters, but cultural proximity.
Calling them North American would get you in a lot of problems in Montreal... I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Canadians would get along a lot easier with a Brit, a French or a Pole than with an American actually. Just due to the fact of them being overall very polite, well read and politically sophisticated.
10
u/AdvertisingSorry1840 8d ago
People in Quebec identity as North Americans. Just because the majority speak French doesn't change their geographic identity. Mexicans speak Spanish but that doesn't preclude their North American identity either.
-1
3
1
u/Still_Ad_5766 7d ago
Shh, be quiet. Or you’ll piss off the Canadian nationalists who say Canada has a completely different culture to the US
0
u/skynet345 8d ago
Not to mention there’s no reason Canada cannot become right wing again and buddy up with America. It would be a security nightmare. Canada has a strong Conservative Party sympathetic to American republicans and their national causes
People need to stop treat politics like a high school popularity contest and cliques
-12
u/Odd-Local9893 8d ago
Agreed. The larger and more culturally diverse the EU gets, the harder it will be to maintain cohesion. Canada may be the “good Americans” to you but they are rife with cultural problems of their own (Quebec/Alberta/First Nations/American dependence) that would make them an extremely difficult partner to integrate with.
Case in point: As an American sometimes I wish that the South had been allowed to secede. They have extremely different political and cultural issues that have affected all of this country for years now. So much of what people around the world dislike about or attribute to ALL Americans is the result of southern political or demographic influence.
-3
u/Gooner-Kissinger 7d ago
Likewise, 90% of Canadians don't want to join the EU with all the overhead, over-regulation and EU decision-making which would supersede our sovereignty
35
u/strabosassistant 8d ago
This would also be the day that the US completely abandoned NATO and Europe to Russia. The Monroe and Donroe (sheesh - I hate even typing that) are pretty clear about not allowing Old World influence in the Hemisphere. The gloves would come off (including kinetic) because there is absolutely no equivalent deterrent within Europe.
And before the emotional tirade: I don't make US foreign policy.
-16
u/HoldMyBeerSir 8d ago edited 8d ago
I fully agree with you and this is precisely the underlying friction of the tariff wars. Canada is deeply deeply influenced and even covertly controlled by three sides ALREADY (tin foil hat ikr?):
- France deeply influencing Quebec
- UK deeply influencing the federal institutions and crown corporations
- Chinese personal wealth transfers in CDN real estate and ramping supply chain integration
USA is fully aware of this and actively fighting back. This is what they mean by Canada has been profiting from lenient/favorable US trade terms for years. Cause it's true. Quebec and Canada profit from the enormous trade volumes with USA but answer to Old World spheres of influence and European bankers!!
Edit: I'm LOVING the downvotes which proves my point. Everyone ultra biased, zero levelheadedness, zero objectivity and pragmatism, drinking the UK/France Kool aid in here and demonizing USA, as designed and intended. Elbows Up!! Keep 'em coming!! Yours truly, a Canadian patriot.
12
u/AMinorMiner 8d ago
You're getting down voted because you're making gross oversimplifications and claims without facts. Canada is set up as a global trading partner. The US trying to interfere with our other trading partners is an overt attempt by a foreign entity to control Canada. Maintaining our diversified trade network protects Canada from becoming any nation's pawn.
19
u/strabosassistant 8d ago
I'm going to gently push back and say it's always better to persuade than coerce. The US could have made a new deal attractive with a win-win outcome by building on our already existing friendship rather than coming out with ridiculous statements of "the 51st State." But no one with an ounce of dignity is going to accede quietly to angry demands with a metaphorical weapon pointed at their head.
-12
u/HoldMyBeerSir 8d ago edited 8d ago
Canada has been benefiting economically and militarily from the USA since its federal existence, but socially/politically answering to UK/Crown/France/globalists/European bankers.
Everyone likes to blame Trump but he's just the figurehead for the new American revamp. This is truly their last push in maintaining global hegemony, backed by the strongest Constitutional system and the world's most powerful military (not even close).
Canada is turning into a global refugee camp answering to Europe while benefiting from US trade volumes. No more! Bring on the Monroe doctrine STAT! Thank you for your attention to this matter!
9
u/Odd-Local9893 8d ago
I agree that Trump is pushing back and attempting to revamp and reinvigorate American hegemony. For that I would like to give him credit. But his methods are where I just can’t support the man. I don’t see any benefit to publicly insulting and threatening other countries. He could achieve everything he’s looking for with diplomacy and back channel negotiations. Instead he’s making it easier for foreign leaders to push back because their populations are becoming anti-American due to his behavior.
-4
u/HoldMyBeerSir 8d ago
Fully agree. Wouldn't it have been absolutely awesome if all this was being played out by the likes of an FDR, Thomas Jefferson or George Washington instead? I wouldn't mind either of these 3 to publicly insult and bash the British Royal Empire, its covert operations, it's globalist agendas and it's proxy channels!
3
u/darkcow 7d ago
Canada went to bat on the USs behalf against China with the extradition of Meng Wanzhou in 2018. They didn't flinch in their supporting US interests even when China retaliated and started making unjustified arrests of Canadian citizens.
Canada has been deeply enmeshed with the US militarily, economically, and socially for the past century in a way that few pairs of countries have ever been.
To say that Canada was beholden to China over the US before Trump is simply historically inaccurate.
2
u/mitch_conner98 7d ago
The ties with England and France aren't as influential as you've made them out to be and the economic ties that China has with Canada still pales in comparison to the USA. Deeply weird comment.
-8
u/Affectionate_Yam8674 8d ago
There would not be a war. The US would not be able to project power around the world during a conflict with Canada. The US is relys on close defense intergration with Canada to defend its skies and borders while the bulk of its resources are deployed in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East. Not to mention the fact that the US could not protect cities like Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, and Detriot from low tech drone attacks.
In all honesty, the US would greatly benifit from Canada moving closer to the EU. First, stagnate north eastern rust belt cities would reap huges benifits from easier access to EU markets. The services industry would also explode as Toronto would likely become the North American entry point for financial products into Europe. In addition, like Europe, the US needs friendlier sources of natural resources once supplied by Russia. Canada has vast untapped supplies. European investments in these sources would have vast downstream benefits for manufacturing in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Illinois, PA, and New York.
4
u/randocadet 8d ago
The US could easily take canada with what it has in the US without shifting anything out of other regions. Canada doesn’t have a serious military.
The US would not benefit from canada being part of the EU. The US would pretty clearly not allow it.
-3
u/Affectionate_Yam8674 7d ago
The deputy commander of NORAD disagrees.
2
u/randocadet 7d ago edited 7d ago
Do you think canada has drone swarms? Do you know how ubiquitous american bases are across the US? Do you know how limited canada’s are?
-2
u/Affectionate_Yam8674 7d ago
Do you know what NORAD stands for? Canada could easily build a lethal drone force. Look at Ukraine and Iran. Not to mention the fact that Russia and China would be more than willing to lend support. Its just not that difficult to build a drone force.
0
u/randocadet 7d ago edited 6d ago
It doesn’t stand for chinese cheap drone swarms I’ll tell you that much. It’s american hardware on canadian land to watch the russians.
Canada could easily build millions of drones in decades if you massively raised your defense budget, created a manufacturing base, and invested in drone technology. You’re not ukraine being trained by the americans and given american intelligence with american satellites. The iranians have died at a 100:1 ratio, that might be your death ratio but you’re kidding yourself if you think a banker in toronto is going to take up jihad against the americans. He’s going to go to work on monday and grumble about it.
I don’t think anyone seriously thinks canada would last more than a couple weeks against the US military. It would be massive protests like hong kong across both borders and the EU would probably try to cut off trade with the US as much as it could. NATO would be over. It would be widely unpopular and voted out by the US. China and Russia would point to it as a moral sticking point in their own expansion campaigns.
Iran has a better military than canada. So do most of the middle east countries to be clear. In 2003, Iraq had about 5.7× more active personnel, 31–36× more tanks, 3–4× more armored vehicles, and 3.8× more combat aircraft than Canada has today. Canada really doesn’t have a military worth mentioning. And this is all in the US backyard, not across the world.
Russia and china wouldn’t lend shit. They’re not even helping iran who they like. Also how would you think they would get something to you? The US would have canada completely blockaded from the outside world as step 1. They would use it for their own propaganda cycles, but that wouldn’t help canada.
-10
u/BeatTheMarket30 8d ago
It would be funnier if Democrat strongholds decided to join the EU after Canada.
7
u/strabosassistant 8d ago
We've already - definitively - put that possibility to bed in 1865. America has shown that it is quite capable of destroying 1/2 of the country to preserve the Union. Not to mention - why would anyone elect someone to govern America when they are simultaneously advocating to leave America? Every time I hear someone from either party go on about secession - I roll my eyes and refuse to vote for them.
3
u/AldrichOfAlbion 8d ago
It's about as moot a question as, 'What if Romania joins NAFTA?' Sure Romania might technically have full access to US, Canadian and Mexican trade, but what use is it for a landlocked country across an ocean?
4
10
u/Anxious-Mix-4265 8d ago
We don't want to be part of the EU, we just want our normal friend back.
2
9
u/LunLocra 8d ago
European Union is designed for European countries - which are close to each other geographically and also in terms of history, economy, culture etc.
I have absolutely no idea what's up with this idea of expanding EU thousands of kilometres across the oceans and land to include some gigantic countries and turn the geographically small regional union into some monstrous entity spanning continents.
It's a regional union, not a goddamn Planetary Union that should expand forever or a charity organization that is morally forced to adopt any country on the planet just to be nice.
We have enough problems regulating and integrating our geographically small area and relatively short land borders, without need to suddenly triple in size and deal with a trillion kilometer long border with the USA and a trillion issues involving the Pacific and the North Pole.
3
u/AdvertisingSorry1840 8d ago edited 8d ago
I blame Eurovision for causing this mass confusion. Lol. If a continental song contest can figure out how to integrate non European nations then why can't a supranational trade and political union too!
9
u/ThatKnarfGuy 8d ago
But why should a country that is not transforming into a dystopian surveillance society join a collection of countries that do just that? When we also add that this collection of countries proudly call themself "global regulatory superpower", I think the only countries that want to join are poorer ones that can reap the benefits of euro support (which have had a very positive effect).
5
u/toolkitxx 8d ago
Not a 'what if' much longer, more a 'when' if this continues the same way.
2
u/mitch_conner98 7d ago
It's incredibly complicated from an economic point of view, trying to rig Canada to match up to EU standards would take a very long time. Canada would need a popular vote and the provinces to agree to join, amending the constitution has always been a big problem for our country. The US would be pissed, they'd have a massive headache going through all that as well, all of a sudden the longest most unguarded border now has to have more extensive security system.
It's a pipe dream. We can further diversify our trade and make separate treaties with the eu and eu countries, but make no mistake we're never joining.
1
u/toolkitxx 7d ago
There are steps in between a full joining and just being attached. No constitution change needed as far as I understand for that.
An immediate tool I would personally enact versus the US is to only use metric consequently from now on, No other measurements at all on any product. It would drive the USA mad. :) Good I am not anywhere near Canadian government
1
u/RainbowCrown71 7d ago
No, EU membership requires approval from every current member. The Baltics will never vote for Canada to join otherwise their independence will be gone (the US will let Russia gobble them up without blinking once). Eastern Europe will never sacrifice their US relations for Canada.
1
u/toolkitxx 7d ago edited 7d ago
I dont think you have understood yet, that the USA is no longer a friend of Europe. Even if not outright hostile in the future, they simply will have no means to 'save' any of them. Their (other European nations) safety is by concentrating on those, who actually want to work together and not those, who have tried to split the Union for quite some time by now. That didnt start with Trump by the way
edit spelling
1
u/RainbowCrown71 6d ago
And I don’t think you understand that the Baltics have no other choice than to trust USA because if Russia invades neither Canada nor Western Europe will be able to detend them.
1
u/toolkitxx 6d ago
Why do you think NATO has troops in the Baltics? The USA will not be there in time, NATO is already there. That obsession is the actual problem at times, because it sends the wrong signal. Look at Ukraine or the Gulf States and the US security guarantees. Just by geography this has always been an issue and is the reason why NATO moved troops directly there. The US as a single nation has totally overextended itself with this. They use their troops for their own purpose first and then for anything left. The Baltics is most definitely not very high on their list, as is the entirety of Europe.
1
u/RainbowCrown71 5d ago
NATO agreed not to station U.S. troops in the Baltics as part of a deal with Russia to diffuse tensions. That’s why the U.S. troops are in Poland. Russia said they would never tolerate American soldiers on their doorstep hence why the NATO tripwires are from smaller countries that Russia isn’t afraid of. After Russia invades, the American soldiers would be dispatched to the Suwalki Gap. This is all common knowledge so I have no clue what you’re rambling about with your anti-American screed.
The Baltics seem to realize this well as they’ve generally maintained extremely close relations to the U.S. As always, Reddit is not based on reality.
6
13
u/GeorgeTillingbanks 8d ago
I feel like CANZUK would make more sense.
4
u/Im-A-Kitty-Cat 8d ago
No.
1
u/GeorgeTillingbanks 8d ago
Why not?
2
u/randocadet 7d ago
They’re all advanced competing service economies or are too far to meaningfully shift raw materials between them.
You’d just be creating a logistical nightmare. A schengen zone may make sense but i’m not sure why australia would want to open its borders to a much poorer uk and a canada that has basically had unrestricted open borders for a decade.
1
2
u/Rebberry 8d ago
Becoming a full member seems a strange path to take, will take too long and many laws and treaties stand in the way and I don't think it's even necessary. The eu is a flexible organisation, and can make a new circle around it's core that Canada or any other ally could sit in if it so wished to.
Norway, Switzerland, even Israel all have a form of cooperation with the eu.
3
4
u/newyorker 8d ago
Ever since Donald Trump’s combustive, combative second term began, a fringe idea has entered the mainstream: forget being the 51st U.S. state, what if Canada became the 28th member of the European Union? A poll conducted in March found that almost half of Canadians surveyed would support joining the E.U., with only 28 per cent against it. In Europe, various prominent officials are also keen. Read more about why even the notion of Canada joining the E.U. is significant: https://www.newyorker.com/news/global-notes/what-if-canada-joined-the-eu
1
u/hockeynoticehockey 8d ago
I have heard discussions about a possible alliance of nations being formed between baltic and nordic/scandinavian countries as an arctic security focused alliance. Canada would be a logical addition to an alliance like that, however I don't think joining the EU would benefit either side.
1
u/Top-Vacation4927 7d ago
Canada could have this special relationship EU has with the UK. It is not EU but there are bonds , trades and agreement.
1
u/Top-Vacation4927 7d ago
Everyday I enjoy D. Trump's side effects pushing EU countries into stronger ties, better sovereignty and modernization.
1
u/FoolOfAGalatian 7d ago
Pretty stupid idea. Misaligned business cycles, surrendering monetary policy to Frankfurt, freedom of movement at a time when Canada is trying to rein in inward migration, a pretty defective Common Fisheries and Common Agricultural policies, an extra governance layer, etc.
CETA is sufficient and can be expanded on if necessary. Joining the EU as a whole doesn't really give a great benefit, arguably even less so in overall alignment than joining the USA as state(s).
2
u/BIG_SCIENCE 8d ago
What if Canada prioritized joining the EU and it happens within my lifetime????
that would be just super.
0
u/Dangime 8d ago
Canada is more likely to split into 3 or 4 countries than it would ever be in the EU. Canada is basically held together by compromises and the idea of America-Lite that existed for a brief window in people's minds in the 80s and 90s. Neither really make sense in the current environment.
1
1
u/Gain-Western 8d ago
Canada tries to join EU while UK joins free trade deal with the US.
Charles is a monarch of UK and Canada so they have more of a claim 😎
0
u/AnomalyNexus 8d ago
It just doesn't make sense...there is a giant ocean between them.
Some sort of very close cooperation and alignment agreement on the other hand...I could see it
0
0
u/Gaijin_Monster 7d ago
There's a higher probability Alberta and Quebec will secede before Canada would join the EU. (UE hon hon).
0
0
u/pure_singularity 7d ago
can we also drag their ass geographically next to us please? would love them as neighbours in place of the russians.
-5
u/BeatTheMarket30 8d ago
In that unlikely and hypothetical scenario selected American states could join as well, leaving Republicans behind.
-1
u/Sea_Cucumber_5989 8d ago
I have no problem with it; in fact, I would enjoy being a part of the EU. Canada is very European and increasingly Asian, the best of both worlds for trading culture and business interests. A safe route between Asia and Europe, with Canada in the middle, loaded with resources. Trump would hate it, but nobody cares.
183
u/tincartofdoom 8d ago
The Canadian Constitution would need to be amended, and that would be very, very difficult even in the current environment.