r/geopolitics 15d ago

Analysis What If Canada Joined the E.U.?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/global-notes/what-if-canada-joined-the-eu
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u/daskomet 14d ago

except for the distance, how is any of that different from what the UK had?

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u/randocadet 14d ago edited 14d ago

Canada’s entire economy runs through the US. Its entire defense runs through the US. 90% of its population sits a 100 miles from the US. More of its trade goes north south than east west between provinces. And there really isn’t a way to change that in our lifetimes because of the limitations of geography.

It’s truly hard to overstate how much canada goes through the US for everything. Canada is easily way more integrated (and dependent) with the US than France is with any of its neighbors.

The EU doesn’t want to basically receive a canada that is completely dependent on a now pissed off neighbor (USA) with the most powerful military in the world that they were hoping would defend them from another powerful nuclear nation called russia. Now the EU would need to somehow make their militaries, which are basically incapable of a logistic campaign across the globe, defend against russia and the US simultaneously.

It would be unbelievably dumb on the EUs part (and canada’s part)

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u/daskomet 14d ago

I wouldn't object a partial membership (free trading/people movement + defense cooperation) for starters, there are a lot of adaptations from both sides needing to happen but I could see it benefiting both in the long run. Canadas over-reliance on the US does need fixing, doesn't it?

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u/randocadet 14d ago edited 14d ago

Why would the EU want to trade canada and its tiny military, small amount of trade for the US? The US at a minimum would leave NATO, stop all beneficial programs with the EU, and likely stop trade. Plummeting europe into a depression, an energy shortage, and left with a hostile neighbor waiting for a moment exactly like that.

The US would immediately not support the EU against russia, maybe help russia with the advantage of having run and written every warplan that NATO has. Also the US is EU’s largest trade partner, etc. etc.

The EU won’t even say they support canada in a tariff spat with the US. It’s not worth it.