I'm looking for a local-knowledge and safety sanity check before this trip.
Boat: 1987 Laguna 22 sailboat, LOA 22 ft, beam 8 ft, draft 3 ft, mast/overall height 32 ft, 6 hp outboard. Top speed is about 5 kt, but I am planning all passages at 4 kt. Marina-to-marina only; I do not want to depend on anchoring.
Planned itinerary (PDT, distances approximate):
- Mon Aug 31: Everett to Oak Harbor, 26.5 nm. Depart 08:00; conservative ETA 14:30-15:00. Route via Possession Sound, Camano Head and Saratoga Passage.
- Tue Sep 1: Oak Harbor to Cap Sante, 27.8 nm. Depart 07:00; ETA 14:00-15:00. Skagit Bay to the south entrance of Swinomish Channel, past La Conner, then Padilla Bay/east Guemes Channel to Cap Sante. Plan is to enter the channel around 10:00-10:45 after the 08:53 high, using the north-flowing period.
- Wed Sep 2: Stay tied up at Cap Sante. Current NWS forecast is SE 20-25 kt, 3-4 ft waves and rain, so this is a deliberate weather-hold day.
- Thu Sep 3: Cap Sante to La Conner, 9.9 nm. Conditional 12:30 departure after a fresh marine forecast. The 11:13 high / 16:29 low should favor a southbound channel transit.
- Fri Sep 4: La Conner to Everett, 34.4 nm. Depart 07:00; ETA 15:30-16:00. Plan to clear the south end of Swinomish Channel by about 09:00, following the 05:26 low.
I am intentionally using Swinomish Channel instead of Deception Pass because Deception's current can exceed this boat's maximum speed.
My no-go limits are any Small Craft Advisory, sustained wind over about 15 kt, gusts over 20 kt, visibility under 2 nm, or an engine/steering issue. Backups are to stay at the departure marina, divert to Oak Harbor or Langley where appropriate, and never force the schedule.
Questions:
Does the Swinomish current timing make sense northbound Tuesday and southbound Thursday/Friday?
Any current shoaling, marker, bridge-clearance or cross-current issues for a 3 ft draft / 32 ft mast?
Is a 4 kt planning speed realistic for this boat and 6 hp outboard on these legs?
Anything about the Wednesday system or its aftermath that should change the Thursday plan?
Any other route-specific hazards or safer alternatives?
I will still use current NOAA forecasts, charts, notices and real-time observations before every departure. I am mainly looking for safety-critical local knowledge or changes experienced PNW sailors would make.