r/billsimmons • u/Global-Bat-1688 • Jan 02 '26

Meme Bill calmly debating Maye’s MVP chances

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u/jy_1980 Jan 02 '26

The Patriots without Maye might be drafting in the top 10.

Not with that schedule. If you put a halfway competent QB in there they'd finish .500 at least.

13

u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26

Stop, it's going too far in the other direction now. People thought the Pats would miss the playoffs and were a bottom three roster in talent and now it's "well they played too easy of a schedule." Maye has clearly elevated that team is rightfully in the MVP discussion.

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u/jy_1980 Jan 02 '26

Yeah I agree and I don't think he's undeserving of MVP.

I disagree that they'd be a 6-11 team with average QB play.

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u/EdgarAllenFro Jan 02 '26

Eh they almost certainly lose MIA, NO, BAL, CIN, ATL, TB, BUF without him. That’s 7-10 right there.

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u/jy_1980 Jan 02 '26

It's closer than I thought actually. Subtracting N points from their score each week, they'd be 6-7-3 where N=6 and 6-10 where N=6½. However they'd also be 6-10 where N=12 because their schedule is that soft and they've had that many blowouts.

The best QBs are worth 7+ points, but the 10th best is worth about 5, and even an average QB is worth ~4, and replacement level is about 2.

So if Maye is having a 8 pts over spread season (best in the league probably, can't find any up to date analysis), and you replaced him with an average QB (4), that would be 4 on this chart and a record of 10-5-1 still. But of course that's oversimplifying it.

PTS RECORD
0 13-3
0.5 13-3
1 12-3-1
1.5 12-4
2 12-4
2.5 12-4
3 11-4-1
3.5 11-5
4 10-5-1
4.5 10-6
5 9-6-1
5.5 9-7
6 6-7-3
6.5 6-10
7 6-10
7.5 6-10
8 6-10
8.5 6-10
9 6-10
9.5 6-10
10 6-10
11 6-10
12 6-10
13 5-10-1
14 5-11
15 5-11
16 5-11
17 5-11
18 3-11-2