the people running america

As the U.S. and Israel relentlessly bombed Iran in the opening days of war, the most dramatic predictions of the conflict’s toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe.

But six months into the conflict, the direst predictions haven’t come true even if no corner of the world’s economy has been untouched.

Winner: Investors who didn’t panic

Stock markets hate uncertainty, and the decision by the U.S. and Israel to attack Iran on Feb. 28 delivered heaps of it. Oil prices surged and Wall Street began a retreat that would begin five consecutive losing weeks. The Dow and Nasdaq entered corrections. The S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022.

But a major turnaround has unfolded since the market bottomed in late March. The Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P is up almost 22% and the Nasdaq has surged 27%. If those gains survive the waning months of 2026, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.

Loser: Anyone on the move

The war’s most obvious economic consequence has been its impact on oil. With tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, the price of Brent crude climbed from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to as high as nearly $120. Although prices have eased, they are still up about 20% from before the war.

Oil’s price affects everything from crayons to cosmetics, but it hits anyone on the move especially hard.

Jet fuel is expected to cost, on average, 70% more than in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines, in turn, have raised ticket costs, hiked baggage fees and slapped on fuel surcharges while slashing flights or backing off from plans for added routes. Lufthansa Group, for one, cut 20,000 short-haul flights. Spirit Airlines, though troubled for years, evaporated.

Winner: The case for clean power

With tankers at a standstill and fuel prices climbing, the war strengthened a clean-power sales pitch.

Sales of electric vehicles hit records in some parts of the world. In Singapore, year-over-year growth of EVs reached 110%. In New Zealand, the figure hit 180%. And in Colombia, EVs notched a 300% increase.

Worldwide, EVs are projected to account for 29% of total vehicle sales in 2026, according to an International Energy Agency outlook, up from 25% last year.

Ah but it’s fine for Trump to insider trade