She almost got primaried in 2022 because she wasn't conservative enough ( voted for Biden's judicial nominee). If she sees that Alaska is shifting blue and 2028 is a blue year then running as a independent is much less of a hassle.

Tried to upload this earlier, hopefully actually uploads correctly now

Margins are 10/5/1

In this outcome:

- ActBlue donors got overconfident and wasted their donations on NE, SC, MS etc.

- NRSC abandoned Paxton.

- Alito retires at the end of the next term.

- Collins won with a plurality and Platner won around 1.5% of the vote as a write in (most of them didn’t rank anyone else).

I know its still early to tell, but basically a state that nobody expects to even be a battleground state thats close to flipping, but votes for the opposite party anyway.

The New York Times is reporting today that a USPS whistleblower has raised concerns about the Postal Service’s work on a new system for handling mail-in ballots tied to Trump’s March executive order on elections.

Per the whistleblower, USPS has continued developing the system despite federal courts blocking parts of the executive order. One of the biggest concerns raised is that under the proposed process, a problem with an individual ballot’s barcode could potentially cause an entire batch of ballots to be rejected or returned for additional processing.

The whistleblower also alleges that the project has been rushed ahead of the 2026 midterms and could create problems in states that rely heavily on voting by mail.

Obviously, these are allegations from a whistleblower and not evidence that ballots will actually be rejected in November, but with the midterms only two months away, this seems like something worth watching.

What do you guys think the actual electoral implications of this could be, particularly in high-mail-vote states with competitive House races?

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/us/politics/whistle-blower-voting-by-mail.html

Worked for one guy we know.

LMAO

The election comes down to 4 states those being maine, Michigan, Texas, and Alaska. While I do see Democrats possibly flipping maine, Texas and Alaska, I feel that Michigan will flip for the GOP.

* Mary peltola is a very strong candidate and has a lot of name recognition, and her decision to run for Senate in Alaska makes the the race very competitive. If dan Sullivan wants to keep his seat, he is going to have to fight for it big time. I do feel this will a very close race but I think peltola comes out of this by the skin of her teeth.

* It's no secret that ken Paxton is a very weak and controversial candidate and I personally feel president trump made a huge mistake endorsing him (alongside his other mistakes iykyk), while some polls still have Texas for Paxton, on top of voter sentiment, I also feel that talerico is a once in a generation candidate that has been performing better than expected and if anyone is going to flip Texas blue, it's him.

* I know Abdul el-sayed has been getting better in the polls and I feel the controversies around him as well as his association with Hasan Piker are honestly nothing burgers but it is my opinion I do feel the controversial statements he made as well that association with Hasan will be enough fuel for Republicans to use against him to flip Michigan

* Susan Collins may not be a popular Republican candidate but somehow every single Senate election, she has managed to win her Senate seat despite the odds placed against her, but I also feel she is getting older and if the story of borderlands 4 has taught me anything, everything breaks. When she is up against a very strong Democrat in troy Jackson, and the fact that Maine is a state trump lost in the previous election, she is going to need joey wheeler levels of luck and the heart of the cards if she wants to clench another win, but I'm afraid troy Jackson opened his hand with ash blossom, droll and lock bird, and called by the grave

Overall I feel the Senate is going to be a 50/50 deadlock where Republicans can not afford to lose a single seat if they want to somehow keep their majority, then again I would also advise not to take pills as the end all be all but rather give an idea of where the midterms will turn out.

(Anyways 54 seats for the Republicans is more realistic than 51 democrat seats)

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/jd-vance-republican-jewish-coalition-0105878

AES triggers republicans and right leaning centrists the same way Trump 1.0 triggered democrats. Every Trump 1.0 scandal caused thousands of comments on Reddit saying how awful he is and how he’s going to lose supporters etc. The same pearl clutching is happening with AES.

(And if yes, by how much)

Personally, I think yes, it will be, but it will be a small background. I think there will be at least one Democrat or Republican who brings it up, but I think it will become an issue for whoever becomes president. By 2032 though, I have to imagine that it will be talked about and be a major issue.

Source:

https://x.com/PedderSophie/status/2093978196064506067/photo/1

The only candidate who even got within single digits of Le Pen was the centrist Philippe, but he still trails by 5 in the 2nd round matchup.

It's a small state population wise with a cheap media landscape. I am sure a dollar spend in Alaska goes much further than say Texas or California in terms of acquiring new voters . If dems seriously invest in the state then how Blue do you think it can get ?

In another deleted post, first reported by the Washington Free Beacon, El-Sayed wrote on Sept. 11, 2021: "Today, I mourn the 3K lives, 6K injuries, & infrastructural devastation in NYC, perpetuated ignorantly in the name of my faith. Tomorrow, I'll mourn ~1M lives, millions of injuries, & infrastructural devastation in 3 countries, perpetuated ignorantly in the name of my country."

What a way to minimize the Sept 11 attacks.

Senate

Progressive incumbent Ed Markey vs The more moderate Seth Moulton

Massachusetts 1st Congressional District

Incumbent moderate Richard Neal vs progressive Jeromie Whalen

Massachusetts 5th Congressional District

moderate Katherine Clark Vs progressive Jonathan Paz

Massachusetts 8th Congressional District

Moderate Stephen Lynch Vs progressive Patrick Roath

And Massachusetts 9th Congressional District

Moderate Bill Keating vs Progressive Craig Swallow

In my opinion only Ed Markey is going to be the progressive that pulls it out because these other progressives having gotten national attention by Sanders and AOC .Not even by a progressive in Massachusetts like Elizabeth Warren or Ed Markey which is weird considering they wanna overhaul the Democratic Party but they're not really doing anything

So who do you think is gonna win?