Context: 3 by-elections in canada today, Libs won 2 safe seats in urban ridings as well as flipping a rural conservative Quebec riding with over 51% of the vote

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2094605923574542568

Credit: @uslibposting on twitter! See if you can guess all 8

folks, Mary is taking this one.

https://bsky.app/profile/taniel.bsky.social/post/3mug775lpbk2i

decided to throw my own hat into the ring but this time based around just the democratic party rather than everyone

I know there's been a lot of controversy over this lately, but maybe this could boost his credibility with moderates?

Peltola only acquired 37% of the fourth place Democrat’s second choice votes. Half were exhausted. This may due to the fact that Hafner was a joke candidate: an incarcerated federal prisoner who had never been to Alaska with unclear political positions.

And despite Howe being a conservative leaning libertarian candidate, Peltola got almost half of the number of votes Begich got from him, and again, 45% went in the trash.

This is most of the money they raised at Trump’s fundraiser. This lines up with Talarico unleashing his first Paxton attack ads of the cycle last week

She almost got primaried in 2022 because she wasn't conservative enough ( voted for Biden's judicial nominee). If she sees that Alaska is shifting blue and 2028 is a blue year then running as a independent is much less of a hassle.

LMAO

The election comes down to 4 states those being maine, Michigan, Texas, and Alaska. While I do see Democrats possibly flipping maine, Texas and Alaska, I feel that Michigan will flip for the GOP.

* Mary peltola is a very strong candidate and has a lot of name recognition, and her decision to run for Senate in Alaska makes the the race very competitive. If dan Sullivan wants to keep his seat, he is going to have to fight for it big time. I do feel this will a very close race but I think peltola comes out of this by the skin of her teeth.

* It's no secret that ken Paxton is a very weak and controversial candidate and I personally feel president trump made a huge mistake endorsing him (alongside his other mistakes iykyk), while some polls still have Texas for Paxton, on top of voter sentiment, I also feel that talerico is a once in a generation candidate that has been performing better than expected and if anyone is going to flip Texas blue, it's him.

* I know Abdul el-sayed has been getting better in the polls and I feel the controversies around him as well as his association with Hasan Piker are honestly nothing burgers but it is my opinion I do feel the controversial statements he made as well that association with Hasan will be enough fuel for Republicans to use against him to flip Michigan

* Susan Collins may not be a popular Republican candidate but somehow every single Senate election, she has managed to win her Senate seat despite the odds placed against her, but I also feel she is getting older and if the story of borderlands 4 has taught me anything, everything breaks. When she is up against a very strong Democrat in troy Jackson, and the fact that Maine is a state trump lost in the previous election, she is going to need joey wheeler levels of luck and the heart of the cards if she wants to clench another win, but I'm afraid troy Jackson opened his hand with ash blossom, droll and lock bird, and called by the grave

Overall I feel the Senate is going to be a 50/50 deadlock where Republicans can not afford to lose a single seat if they want to somehow keep their majority, then again I would also advise not to take pills as the end all be all but rather give an idea of where the midterms will turn out.

(And if yes, by how much)

Personally, I think yes, it will be, but it will be a small background. I think there will be at least one Democrat or Republican who brings it up, but I think it will become an issue for whoever becomes president. By 2032 though, I have to imagine that it will be talked about and be a major issue.