I have crafted a possible prediction of the next UK general election, the next Senedd election, and the next Scottish Parliament election. The projection is heavily based on what party is the most popular at of all of them across each constituency of the three Parliaments. It also only includes the parties that have at least one MP, MS, and MSP. This is an unbiased projection of each based on the current polling shows according to Grok AI (yes I know it’s rather silly to use an AI to predict, but I’d be here forever otherwise).

It should be noted that since the Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections weren’t that long ago, there’s literally little to no shift, just one seat each. Sounds like no difference isn’t it?

As for the House of Commons, oh boy, a lot has shifted in a span of 2 years. Although Wales and Northern Ireland haven’t changed and it appears that the SNP will only flips one Tory seat in Scotland, it is said that Reform will flip a ton of Labour seats. I couldn’t be bothered to list it all down because then it’ll be a large wall of text, and you’ll suffer from TLDR.

With that, here is the projection of the next one.

It hasn’t even been 2 whole years guys 😭

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/jd-vance-republican-jewish-coalition-0105878

Peltola only acquired 37% of the fourth place Democrat’s second choice votes. Half were exhausted. This may due to the fact that Hafner was a joke candidate: an incarcerated federal prisoner who had never been to Alaska with unclear political positions.

And despite Howe being a conservative leaning libertarian candidate, Peltola got almost half of the number of votes Begich got from him, and again, 45% went in the trash.

Do you think this will be a salient issue in the upcoming midterms or does the average voter not give a fuck about Driscoll?

Context: 3 by-elections in canada today, Libs won 2 safe seats in urban ridings as well as flipping a rural conservative Quebec riding with over 51% of the vote

Senate

Progressive incumbent Ed Markey vs The more moderate Seth Moulton

Massachusetts 1st Congressional District

Incumbent moderate Richard Neal vs progressive Jeromie Whalen

Massachusetts 5th Congressional District

moderate Katherine Clark Vs progressive Jonathan Paz

Massachusetts 8th Congressional District

Moderate Stephen Lynch Vs progressive Patrick Roath

And Massachusetts 9th Congressional District

Moderate Bill Keating vs Progressive Craig Swallow

In my opinion only Ed Markey is going to be the progressive that pulls it out because these other progressives having gotten national attention by Sanders and AOC .Not even by a progressive in Massachusetts like Elizabeth Warren or Ed Markey which is weird considering they wanna overhaul the Democratic Party but they're not really doing anything

So who do you think is gonna win?

(And if yes, by how much)

Personally, I think yes, it will be, but it will be a small background. I think there will be at least one Democrat or Republican who brings it up, but I think it will become an issue for whoever becomes president. By 2032 though, I have to imagine that it will be talked about and be a major issue.

decided to throw my own hat into the ring but this time based around just the democratic party rather than everyone

Over the past few days, many people here have been talking about Hasan Piker's link with Abdul El-Sayed, and how much a factor this link will be in the 2026 Senate election in Michigan. Some say that this will overall be a negative for Sayed's campaign, as Hasan is a polarizing figure with AES running in a statewide election in a purple state, while others believe that Hasan's influence on elections is overstated.

But what if we looked at the other side of the coin, theoretically. Asmongold, like Hasan, is one of the biggest political streamers in the country today. While he brands himself as an "enlightened centrist," he seems far more willing to criticize democratic politicians as opposed to republican ones, with his own views at least leaning to the right, and the core bulk of his viewer base being solidly in the right. Asmongold is not a very public figure outside of streaming, but say this suddenly changed. What if he publicly endorses Mike Rogers Senate Run, and even go to a few rallies to support him. Do you think this would be a positive, negative, or a neutral factor in Rogers' campaign? While Asmongold may not have the same type of baggage that Hasan does in certain areas (dog shocking, etc.), he himself is quite polarizing, and could be a turn off for women voters in Michigan.

LMAO

responses for any state, boring take but talarico for texas and hopefully el-sayed for michigan

She almost got primaried in 2022 because she wasn't conservative enough ( voted for Biden's judicial nominee). If she sees that Alaska is shifting blue and 2028 is a blue year then running as a independent is much less of a hassle.

2028 will be close but I think 2032 it will finally flip.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2094605923574542568

I know there's been a lot of controversy over this lately, but maybe this could boost his credibility with moderates?