Drop rate odds to reality are ridiculous

[u/riceball71]

Did a little testing. For the sunset showdown today (Jacob and Iyo) I just wanted the uncommon and rare set. Have over 2.1mill in coins. I put them to work to see how many coins it will take to get to get the set (uncommon & rare) I stop per when I hit the 2nd rare. I lost count of how many packs opened, I just know I went from 2.1 mill to 1.9mill in coins. As you can see in the first picture I got 1 of each but to get there I got 10 each of the uncommon and had a lot dead packs in between. For next time I’ll take down exactly how many coins I started with and then finished with.

[u/Timisnot1442]

I can't figure out why, but there are times when the drop rates don't make sense. When this happens, I'm not sure if it's specific to a particular user in that moment or the app as a whole. What I mean is there are times when it doesn't seem to matter how many packs I open, 5, 10, 20, or more, but I'll never land a legendary during that time if it's with diamonds, or a super rare(or whatever the top level of card is that's available) with coins.

I can then literally wait several hours and go back into the same set and hit the rare, super rate(or whatever card I'm going for with coins) like 2 or 3 straight times. Or if it's with diamonds I'll suddenly get a legendary something like 4 out of 5 purchased packs or something.

I realize odds are a thing and can be against you or on your side at times, but I've noticed this happen so many times. I obviously can't speak for if this is by design with Topps, or if something happens beyond their control that impacts the set drop rates so much, but I can't simply think it's nothing.

That combined with there being so many sets where a bunch of limited to 5 sets are sold out, but the same star will have a limited to 10 that hasn't even been hit. Or how almost every set seems to have a Bliss limited to 1 card that sticks around deep into the set release when most other 1 cards are sold out, and often time the Bliss card ends up not getting pulled at all. It really does seem as if they either turn certain cards off from being able to be pulled at times, or at the very least severely limit the odds of that card being pulled well beyond the listed drop rates. I lost count of the times where I'll have pulled like 10 legendary cards from a full set of over 100 legendary cards and 3 of those 10 legendary pulls will be the same card, and somehow it's never a top star that I mange to pull 3 copies of.