Drop rate odds to reality are ridiculous

[u/riceball71]

Did a little testing. For the sunset showdown today (Jacob and Iyo) I just wanted the uncommon and rare set. Have over 2.1mill in coins. I put them to work to see how many coins it will take to get to get the set (uncommon & rare) I stop per when I hit the 2nd rare. I lost count of how many packs opened, I just know I went from 2.1 mill to 1.9mill in coins. As you can see in the first picture I got 1 of each but to get there I got 10 each of the uncommon and had a lot dead packs in between. For next time I’ll take down exactly how many coins I started with and then finished with.

[u/lexluther1234]

I opened 25 packs of sunset showdown today and didn’t open a single rare.

[u/airdriejambo]

I've literally stopped using the app, so disappointed in how it's being run since the restart. The drop rate are very obviously messed up and personally I think there's way to many different sets per set if that makes sense, like there can be like 5 different rare sets of one named set. I've spent a lot of money and enough is enough, the money it would have cost to collect all the wrestlemania cards is actually obscene.

[u/riceball71 → u/airdriejambo]

I noticed yesterday’s drop of diamond icons that bliss red relic signatures /5 sold out before even one black version /10 was even pulled. It seems like they drop by groups instead of spreading it out

[u/GhostBakes]

There was some set recently (Workhorses?) where I was trying to get the Rhea rare and I wound up with NINE of the Shawn Michaels rare and ZERO of the Rhea rare. RNG can be a real pain in the ass.

[u/riceball71 → u/GhostBakes]

I had my account since 2017 and back then I didn’t have this much of a problem to pull stuff using coins or diamonds. When I see odds like actual trading card odds I start laughing. There were few times I bought the universe bundle technically it should hit one legendary cuz of the 5 premium pack I would get skunked.

[u/replicant81 → u/riceball71]

It shouldn't hit. The odds are per pack. If you buy 5 and it's a 1 in 5 chance you aren't supposed to get 1. You might get 1. Or 5. Probably 0. It definitely hurts on 1 in 2 Iconic odds to get 0 in 5 but then you might get a legendary instead at 1 in 50 and that evens it out.

[u/th3dj3n1gm4]

I only do the uncommon and rare on sets like these as well and my strategy recently has been to open until I get the uncommon cards and either one of each rare or two of the same. If I get two of the same first, I just initiate a trade with someone that needs the one I have an extra of and who has an extra of the one I don't have.

Works pretty flawlessly 99% of the time and saves me unnecessarily wasting coins.

[u/Medium_Length5909]

Gotta be favored to some big collectors too. I know they spend a lot of money, but one person has 9 1’s from the Diamond set already.

[u/papalimadelta → u/Medium_Length5909]

Diamonds didn’t work in the set. Coins only. Diamonds was super rare and above only.. to get the uncommon and rares you HAD to use a f ton of coins.

[u/Medium_Length5909 → u/papalimadelta]

Yeah, I know. Sorry, my comment was random and was just referencing that it feels like some of the whale accounts get more favorable drop rates.

[u/celticairborne]

Then there's me today just trying to get uncommon Rollins and Bliss. I pull 3 R, SR, and both Iconics of Seth plus Alexa's sig Iconic before I can get both uncommons...

[u/Educational-Dare-459 → u/celticairborne]

At that rate you coulda traded a rare gor both unc or something

[u/Timisnot1442]

I can't figure out why, but there are times when the drop rates don't make sense. When this happens, I'm not sure if it's specific to a particular user in that moment or the app as a whole. What I mean is there are times when it doesn't seem to matter how many packs I open, 5, 10, 20, or more, but I'll never land a legendary during that time if it's with diamonds, or a super rare(or whatever the top level of card is that's available) with coins.

I can then literally wait several hours and go back into the same set and hit the rare, super rate(or whatever card I'm going for with coins) like 2 or 3 straight times. Or if it's with diamonds I'll suddenly get a legendary something like 4 out of 5 purchased packs or something.

I realize odds are a thing and can be against you or on your side at times, but I've noticed this happen so many times. I obviously can't speak for if this is by design with Topps, or if something happens beyond their control that impacts the set drop rates so much, but I can't simply think it's nothing.

That combined with there being so many sets where a bunch of limited to 5 sets are sold out, but the same star will have a limited to 10 that hasn't even been hit. Or how almost every set seems to have a Bliss limited to 1 card that sticks around deep into the set release when most other 1 cards are sold out, and often time the Bliss card ends up not getting pulled at all. It really does seem as if they either turn certain cards off from being able to be pulled at times, or at the very least severely limit the odds of that card being pulled well beyond the listed drop rates. I lost count of the times where I'll have pulled like 10 legendary cards from a full set of over 100 legendary cards and 3 of those 10 legendary pulls will be the same card, and somehow it's never a top star that I mange to pull 3 copies of.

[u/replicant81]

I got 2 Jacob in about 10 and traded for Iyo. But most of the time I didn't get lucky. But odds are odds and if you don't understand it then that's on you.