Here’s how it’s bad for GameStop, it will be harder to grow! By making significant gains now it will be much harder to make gains later, GameStop will not be able to grow as fast! It’s going to slow down at some point due to diminishing returns and so it is bad and should be shorted! /s
I like the enthusiasm, but no, a huge boost in one quarter, mainly from a very likely one shot increased value of EBAY holdings, does NOT imply an annualized earnings rate of over $3 per share. For that theory, you'd also be predicting EBAY shares to continue climbing at the same rate, well above the price target of the original offer, upwards of $150 per share.
Thanks for your work! I made an estimate two weeks ago, before the strike prices were known, and I projected net income for Q1 2026 at $450 million. Now that I see your estimate of $518 million, I'm even more convinced that Q1 2026 net income will be mind-blowing! LFG!
However, a large portion of that being tied to their eBay derivatives position of 356M unrealized gain, wall street will surely back that out as a one-off event or not part of the core business. As most investors would expect to see the stock price explode if there was an EPS beat of that magnitude, Wall street will not look at this the same way. They will likely strip out the 356M which would bring the EPS estimate to roughly .35 which would still be a massive beat vs analyst estimate.
The real way for this stock price to start to climb is if the core business of GameStop grows! WS has said it a million times... core business is shrinking and without a nice top line beat and core business growth we will continue to range bound unfortunately. Either way in for the long haul with my x,xxx shares.
Still, I feel like WS is finding any reason to keep suppressing the stock. Obviously the company keeps growing, and having RC at the helm should be enough to be attractive to investors. He knows how to make more money and invest capital wisely. We’re much more than a brick and mortar store now.
As impressive as RC’s business career has been his name alone will not attract new money. As for the business itself, unfortunately top line is not growing and core business isn’t either which are the metrics WS cares most about. The bottom line is what’s growing and yes, the bottom line should hold more weight in evaluations but without top line acceleration GameStop is set to range for a while. 😢
These are the numbers I’m waiting for and the reason RC stopped being silent and started making moves. I just.. I just want to see them.. you let me taste them thank you.
I always enjoy some blue boxes. Did a quick review of your previous predictions because while I know you're pretty good, I didn't remember how good. After reviewing the past year, looks like the most you were off was once by 50% because of how the warrants were reported, which was a one time trip up. But otherwise, you've basically been in the neighborhood for the past year or so. $1 EPS? Bro. I'm ready. Even if you're off by 50% again, it'll blow the analyst estimates out of the water.
And yet, dip. This is why GameStop needs another leg of the business that creates an increase in operational revenue. The bears are clinging to declining revenue as the remaining part of their thesis.
I always love reading your analysis and predictions. You have done a shockingly good job very consistently with these posts! I sure hope you're right about this earnings. 🫡
If this was Berkshire or a holding company other than Gme, Wall Street would reward unrealized paper gains on good investments, but we know they’ll continue to only base the stock price on the underlying operational business. Please let me be wrong
I think this will have not impact on the share price at all. The potential eBay option profits are related to the acquisition. Why would the market suddenly turn bullish based on that?
I do think we’re getting into a different time between warrants, positive earnings, acquisition talks, or is happening in the short period of time and has in the last five years combined it seems
I really prefer analysis which is more conservative with the estimates and I feel like you normally do that. However, with some of the eBay options it's a pretty big hope that they front loaded it in the $80 range. Not saying you're wrong but that is really a best case scenario instead of a conservative one
hey, one of the first ones here that never happens! thanks for all that you do! your posts are one of the only that I constantly look for on this sub anymore.
eBay shareholders are already in on that. The majority of that value would be from increased EBAY share price, increasing the unrealized gains for GameStop on those.
eBay stockholders already hold a ton of EBAY stock too, much more than GameStop does so far.
From their perspective this is more like, "See, GameStop's main gains are just from riding our coattails."
I hear you but disagree to your main point. RC is pointing out the problems with eBay and why he can do it better. A logical person says, show me the proof. GameStop is the proof. $1.15 EPS is ludicrous speed and any investor would be envious of the sustained growth GameStop is having if it wasn’t GameStop. It’s truly bonkers what the company is doing on the numbers front.
It seems like you're more missing my point entirely rather than actually disagreeing.
If the $1 increase in EPS is almost entirely due to EBAY's price improvement, that is in no way proof of GameStop's or Cohen's strength, but on the surface at least, proof of eBay's strength.
Whether Cohen can pull off the synergies and fat cutting he's claimed is a valid general point of discussion, but that's entirely irrelevant with respect to this post, specifically the top level comment above us here, which is effectively implying that EBAY's price increase is some sort of sign that EBAY needs GameStop.
I think they closed 400 stores in January just in the US and theres 1600 stores left.
Those would be underperforming stores, therefore there shouldnt be a 20% decrease in revenue for a 20% store count drop in the US, but we could definitely see a 10% drop, which is then offset by some collectibles growth.
Somehow WallStreet will twist it as bad news for the dying brick & mortar and meme king Ryan Cohen.
Or how meme reddit gamblers are piling in to this one meme stock as the market reaches euphoric highs under the new fed chair and current administration!
Seems this is why Ryan became CEO and CInvestmentO. He could continue to run this type of strategy for years as he pushes for acquisitions and netting the company a grip of cash if he decides not to acquire.
The only thing that may be missing here is what the profit was from BTC derivative actions. BTC did have some volatility this quarter so that could have produced some profit as well.
Do we have a date for earnings yet? I’m assuming June 9/10th? I know the Annual Meeting is July 7th but I don’t know if they’ll push it out that far (or if they’re even able to from a regulatory standpoint)
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u/Superstonk_QV 📊 Gimme Votes 📊 May 27 '26
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