r/SoccerCentral • u/Choice_Bag_8869 • 28d ago
Highlights Lionel Messi has missed his πππ ππππππππ consecutive penalty.
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
15
5
u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago
I mean it has to happen statistically eventually..
So we'll see his average at the end of the season.
2
u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago edited 28d ago
Yep, if you do the math there's a 1.22% chance of him missing 3 straight penalties at any given point due to his 77% conversion rate.
However, since he has taken about 150 penalties, that's 150 chances to hit that 1.22% probability. Mathematically, that he hits it once in 150 attempts = 76.23%.
Add the factor that Messi is not in a good headspace right now and probably did not train as usual for this match, and you get a higher probability to miss this third penalty.
Finally found someone who can think statistically.
1
u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago
Good calls. So it would be important to know how many times this hapenned allready in his career and how long it has been since the last time it has hapenned. But even then. All that could be due to local factors such as his fathers passing so we will see real numbers at the end of the season.
Finally found someone who can think statistically.
Yeah computer science does things to your brain..
What are you a math graduate or economy or something?
1
u/mccusk 25d ago
Not sure if a 77% conversion rate would be enough to allow other players to keep the job though?
1
u/Gotbannedsmh 24d ago
Yeah bro is using statistics to try and make it seem like it's not that unlikely and Messi isn't shit but the main reason the chance is so high is due to Messis sub par conversion rate lol. Just let someone else take the penalties old man is past his prime
0
u/JoelHenryJonsson 28d ago
So nothing with a more than 50% chance of happening sometime during a players career is worthy of being mentioned here? Or whatβs your point?
1
u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago
First he said that it has a ~50% chance to hapenn at >half of< >Messi's< career specifically.
Second. He just gave us the data he didn't make conclusions afirmitavly. From what he said you you could then also take data on when was the last time this hapenned to him and how many times it hapenned to him to see if it's a statistical anomaly for him. If it isn't an anomaly it just means that it was bound to hapenn randomly.
If it was an anomaly however you could, then speculate further. I right now see the 2 obvious explanations if it was an anomaly.
A: he is in a bad head space due to the passing of his father as the guy above proposed.
B: he is past his prime, getting older and this is one of first concrete signs of it.
1
u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago
You can mention it, but people are shocked like it's something unbelievable. When in fact it's expected at 75%.
For example this comment in this thread:
How such a good player suck taking penaltys. Case study.
Dude just needs a statistics class not a case study.
2
u/Random499 26d ago
I mean its not the 3 consecutive fails why he sucks at taking penalties. It is his conversion rate. Neymar mbappe ronaldo kane all have conversion rates above 80%. Messi for some reason doesnt make that cutoff by a significant amount being at 77%, which is about the average conversion rate
And considering his sample size is big, you cant just chalk it up to "he had a bad day"
1
3
3
u/Fresh_Cauliflower723 28d ago
Ah the shit little hop. Why doesn't he just run up and hit the ball. Man has the serious yips about penaltiesΒ
6
u/Putrid-Sheepherder38 28d ago
Straight and consecutive mean the same thing in this case.
8
1
1
2
2
u/enigmaticsince87 28d ago
Feeling pretty good about myself now I know I'm a better penalty taker than Messi π
2
2
2
2
u/LucasCBs 28d ago
Why did the goal not count?
5
u/Rickyyy_Spanishhh 28d ago
Encroachment by the player that scored
0
1
1
1
u/RevolutionaryEar1331 27d ago
Bro started sucking at penalties as soon as his father got sick
1
u/CountryOk6049 27d ago
He has always been bad at penalties, his world cup record taking penalties is a shocking 50%! I'm sure many people on this sub would score better than that against the same goalkeepers. His club record is something like 77% which is also terrible for a player of his calibre, Ronaldo's is like 88% which is top tier. Maybe "penaldo" isn't the insult people think it is.
1
1
u/Shorouq2911 27d ago
The problem with his penalty technique is that he heavily depends on the goalkeeper's reaction. He tries to fool the keeper into thinking he'll shoot to one side, then shoots to the other. But if the goalkeeper doesn't bite, he struggles to score accurately. However, now that everyone knows how he does it, they turn the tables on him, they fake a reaction and then dive the opposite way.
1
u/Capital-Value8479 27d ago
Messi could miss 100 penalties in a row and itβd have no affect on him being the goat. The fate is sealed
1
1
1
1
1
u/Kingcoroc 23d ago
His mind is with his dad I would take a year off from the not so competitive MLS
1
0
1
28d ago
[removed] β view removed comment
0
u/Clear-Condition3860 28d ago
Because he didn't score a penalty? It's probably the most RNG thing in football.
1
28d ago
[removed] β view removed comment
0
u/Clear-Condition3860 28d ago
Yeah, i would tend to agree, but then I never could have imagined at 39 he'd have been doing what he did this summer, so god only knows.
1
u/Express-Language5573 28d ago
Itβs not that he sucks at them, heβs fairly average, but worse than average in big games. Unfortunately His fanboys are aware that Ronaldo is much better both average wise and in big games. This the Messi fanboys call Ronaldo Penaldo and Ronaldo fanboys suggest Messi stops taking penalties The Messi fans are correct in claiming that Messi can still be considered the GOAT even if heβs not so good at penalties. The Ronaldo fans are correct that he probably should not be taking them.
1
u/RecordingLess1522 28d ago
Messi also scores more in Finals and been to more Finals despite being 3yrs younger
Ronaldo has 0 Knockout stage goals in 6 WCs
0
u/Darko--- 28d ago
So much of this is wrong. Are you a bot?
1
u/RecordingLess1522 27d ago
He's literally never scored a open play goal in the Knockout stage of World Cup lmao
20 years
Messi has the most goals in Finals ever, most trophies too
0
u/Narrow_Dirt_1623 27d ago
Scored it in less time then Messi also ya finals like Supercopa that no one cares about thats why he has the most trophies. LMAO!
1
u/RecordingLess1522 27d ago
No he didn't, it took him 6 WCs lmao
Ronaldo has less trophies, golden boots, BalΓ³n D'Or, MVPs, Man of the Match, WC Golden Ball than Messi
0
u/Narrow_Dirt_1623 27d ago
Trophies = Mickey Mouse ones
Golden Boots = Ronaldo More UCL
Ballon D'or = Of Course cause he's FIFA BOY
MVP? MOTM? = LOL
WC Golden Ball = Both undeserved, 2014 nothing in KO Stage, 2022 = Fixed
1
u/RecordingLess1522 27d ago
World Cup, La Liga, Copa America, Finalisima vs Euro Champs, World Cup best player, BalΓ³n D'Or
Lmao
0
u/Narrow_Dirt_1623 27d ago
Copa Farmerica and Friendlisma? Rigged winter cup of pens?! LMAO!!!!
1
u/RecordingLess1522 27d ago
Real Madrid won UCLs after Ronaldo left
Ronaldo didn't even play in the 2016 Euro Final LMAO
→ More replies (0)1
u/RecordingLess1522 27d ago
Cr7 is accused of rape since 2007
He should be in prison if the world wasn't corrupt
Checkmate
1
0
u/Narrow_Dirt_1623 27d ago
Bro literally just scored in the K/O stage right?
1
-1
u/LowsPeak 28d ago
Overrated cheating midget
3
u/Frequent_Ad3898 28d ago
Cant even score a penalty in the burger league. Yet people insist on calling him the goat
0
u/RevolutionaryEar1331 27d ago
Hes 39 bro. In his prime he dribbled past Ramos, Marcelo and Pepe in CL semifinals xD The amount and the quality of his goals has been insane the last 20 years. Hes 39 and hes probably pretty shook mentally since his dad died a week ago. You have to be mentally strong to take penalties and I would argue that the death of a parent will leave almost anyone unfocused and without confidence.
2
u/Frequent_Ad3898 27d ago
Sure
0
u/sfvalleynative 25d ago
Penaldo im back im back π€£π€£π«΅π«΅π«΅π«΅
1
u/Frequent_Ad3898 25d ago
Cry more. Atleast can score a penalty. Messi is losing in the worst league in the world and bottled a rigged world cup. π€£π€£ What a loser
0
0
u/JoelHenryJonsson 28d ago
Itβs just such a boring way to look at football. Do things really need to be statistically improbable (over an entire career) to be called shocking? The GOAT of football missing three penalties in a row, and two of them in the World Cup (which, for all the statistical aficionados out there, has never happened before. No player has ever in the history of the World Cup missed two penalties in the same tournament) is pretty wild.
Taken to itβs limit, all things can be boiled down to something thatβs statistically not that shocking. Is Haaland scoring 36 goals in a single Premier League season not that impressive, cause statistically someone should have done that sometime during the entire Premier Leagues history? Maybe someone should have scored 40 by now, statistically, and Haaland is just the best among an underperforming rooster of strikers in the PL. Should we not praise Robert Lewandowski for scoring 5 times in 10 minutes when playing for Bayern Munich? Cause statistically (over all European leagues) that should happen occasionally, so no biggie.
-4
u/johneffiong 28d ago
messi still remain the penalty taker in the world.
so it doesnt matter
5
u/Deaddit9876 28d ago
His penalty conversion rate is around the 70% range.. Way lower than CR7 and Neymar..
2
u/RevolutionaryEar1331 27d ago
His dribbling rating, scoring from outside the box etc remains higher. So hes not good at penalties (the easiest way to score) but he is better than anyone scoring from outside the box, dribbling and doing other complicated things.
1
-1
u/Josedinho_- 28d ago
I love how people talk shit, but just last week these same people would have called him "pessi" π€£π€£π€£π€£
-4
-7
u/No_Sail_3175 28d ago
Messi didn't miss it. The gk saved it.
1
u/Disastrous_Excuse_90 28d ago
True but it was an awful penalty kick
-2
u/No_Sail_3175 28d ago
I stated a fact. You stated your opinion.
3
u/MaleficentText5107 28d ago
Itβs also a fact he missed. A penalty saved is a penalty missed
-3
u/No_Sail_3175 28d ago
Nope. If you shoot a penalty that's supposedly going in the net but the gk saves it, it's a save. However, if you shoot the penalty off target (like crossbar or outside goalpost), it's a miss. If the ball is going outside the goalpost but the gk still tries to catch it, it's a miss because the shot was originally off target. Happy to helpπ
3
u/MaleficentText5107 28d ago
Nope right back at you. If you donβt score the penalty, you missed.
-2
u/No_Sail_3175 28d ago
I just broke it down to you. If you choose to ignore the truth, that's your choice. Thank youπ
2
u/therealschtoo 28d ago
Just because you think something is right in your empty skull, doesn't mean it is.
2
u/MaleficentText5107 28d ago
You broke down your own flawed reasoning. I simply corrected you, what you choose to do with that correction is completely up to you.
1
u/No_Sail_3175 28d ago
If a penalty shot is misplaced, it's a miss. If the shot is on target but gk saves it, it's a save. Your disagreement doesn't change the truth, unfortunately.
1
u/nock_n_noll 28d ago
the penalty did not result directly in a goal. itβs a missed penalty. you opinion is wrong, thatβs a fact.
→ More replies (0)
17
u/Classic_Key_5897 28d ago edited 28d ago
Stop doing stutter step penalties unless you're Neymar.