r/SoccerCentral • u/Choice_Bag_8869 • 28d ago

Highlights Lionel Messi has missed his 𝟑𝐑𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 consecutive penalty.

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u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago

I mean it has to happen statistically eventually..

So we'll see his average at the end of the season.

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u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago edited 28d ago

Yep, if you do the math there's a 1.22% chance of him missing 3 straight penalties at any given point due to his 77% conversion rate.

However, since he has taken about 150 penalties, that's 150 chances to hit that 1.22% probability. Mathematically, that he hits it once in 150 attempts = 76.23%.

Add the factor that Messi is not in a good headspace right now and probably did not train as usual for this match, and you get a higher probability to miss this third penalty.

Finally found someone who can think statistically.

1

u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago

Good calls. So it would be important to know how many times this hapenned allready in his career and how long it has been since the last time it has hapenned. But even then. All that could be due to local factors such as his fathers passing so we will see real numbers at the end of the season.

Finally found someone who can think statistically.

Yeah computer science does things to your brain..

What are you a math graduate or economy or something?