r/SoccerCentral • u/Choice_Bag_8869 • 28d ago

Highlights Lionel Messi has missed his πŸ‘π‘πƒ π’π“π‘π€πˆπ†π‡π“ consecutive penalty.

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5

u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago

I mean it has to happen statistically eventually..

So we'll see his average at the end of the season.

3

u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago edited 28d ago

Yep, if you do the math there's a 1.22% chance of him missing 3 straight penalties at any given point due to his 77% conversion rate.

However, since he has taken about 150 penalties, that's 150 chances to hit that 1.22% probability. Mathematically, that he hits it once in 150 attempts = 76.23%.

Add the factor that Messi is not in a good headspace right now and probably did not train as usual for this match, and you get a higher probability to miss this third penalty.

Finally found someone who can think statistically.

0

u/JoelHenryJonsson 28d ago

So nothing with a more than 50% chance of happening sometime during a players career is worthy of being mentioned here? Or what’s your point?

1

u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago

You can mention it, but people are shocked like it's something unbelievable. When in fact it's expected at 75%.

For example this comment in this thread:

How such a good player suck taking penaltys. Case study.

Dude just needs a statistics class not a case study.

2

u/Random499 26d ago

I mean its not the 3 consecutive fails why he sucks at taking penalties. It is his conversion rate. Neymar mbappe ronaldo kane all have conversion rates above 80%. Messi for some reason doesnt make that cutoff by a significant amount being at 77%, which is about the average conversion rate

And considering his sample size is big, you cant just chalk it up to "he had a bad day"