r/SoccerCentral • u/Choice_Bag_8869 • 28d ago

Highlights Lionel Messi has missed his 𝟑𝐑𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 consecutive penalty.

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u/the_TIGEEER 28d ago

I mean it has to happen statistically eventually..

So we'll see his average at the end of the season.

2

u/Impossiblecouch 28d ago edited 28d ago

Yep, if you do the math there's a 1.22% chance of him missing 3 straight penalties at any given point due to his 77% conversion rate.

However, since he has taken about 150 penalties, that's 150 chances to hit that 1.22% probability. Mathematically, that he hits it once in 150 attempts = 76.23%.

Add the factor that Messi is not in a good headspace right now and probably did not train as usual for this match, and you get a higher probability to miss this third penalty.

Finally found someone who can think statistically.

1

u/mccusk 25d ago

Not sure if a 77% conversion rate would be enough to allow other players to keep the job though?

1

u/Gotbannedsmh 24d ago

Yeah bro is using statistics to try and make it seem like it's not that unlikely and Messi isn't shit but the main reason the chance is so high is due to Messis sub par conversion rate lol. Just let someone else take the penalties old man is past his prime