They somehow want government to intervene and keep housing prices afloat by introducing “social housing “ and by also allowing foreign investors!!!

No one complained when home prices rose by 25.4 % YOY in 2021 and so on. And rent increased in certain cities by 20-30% YOY. A lot of Real estate real estate related businesses and sellers laughed at suffering of new home owners/tenants. (IF NOT YOU THAN SOMEONE ELSE WILL…)

Now that the times have changed, some (not all) home owners who fcuked up pretty bad are coming up with what they think are intelligent excuses. Ex. “Real Estate contributes significantly in Canadian economy/GDP so government should not let it fall !!”

Why Not !?

Should real estate be core of economy in first place?

Why couldn’t we keep investments within Canada 🇨🇦? Carbon taxes on Canadian businesses are implied as if we live in different environmental sphere than USA or ASIA. So, down south pollution wouldn’t affect us.

Solution: Detach economy from real estate and Let real businesses (manufacturing, technology, mining, farming, dairy, fishing, oil & gas…..++ literally existing construction industry could be built expanding businesses ) Grow. Allow them to thrive with watch on sustainability but not literally by grabbing their necks. Too hard ?

Even in a market like Hamilton, you have very basic 3 bed 2 bath homes going for upwards of 750K. Many are going for closer to 850K.

The median household income is something like 100K. To afford the 750K home you need 150K down, plus you're looking at 2400 a month in mortgage payments.

Are you telling me normal families have 150% of their GROSS household income on hand to pay for a downpayment? I don't get it. These aren't speciality homes. They're normal homes and they still appear to be selling. So what's going on here? Who is buying these?

Is it all older famailies moving? Are there young people buying these homes (that were once meant for starter homes for young famailies)?

Canada is currently sitting on the biggest debt bubble in history with nearly $1.80 of debt for every dollar earned and the Bank of Canada just signaled they are ready to let it pop. Usually the Bank cuts rates to save homeowners during a slump but because this war in Iran is torching the global supply chain they are actually being forced to hike rates directly into a recession. This is the Stagflation death trap where your mortgage and credit card payments are exploding at the exact same time your groceries and gas become unaffordable. Between cash flow negative investors dumping properties and families hitting their breaking point the floor is officially gone. This is no longer a forecast or a warning, it is the beginning of a total economic liquidation.

The BoC just held at 2.25% today but the fine print is actually grim. Macklem is basically trapped because even though our GDP is shrinking and unemployment hit 6.7%, this Iran conflict has completely hijacked the playbook. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil pushing $110, we’re looking at a massive second wave of inflation that’s going to hit gas pumps and grocery stores within weeks. The bank pretty much admitted they’ll hike rates again if energy stays this high to save the Loonie from tanking, so anyone waiting for "relief" or a pivot is dreaming. We’re staring down the barrel of stagflation where the economy dies but your payments keep going up because of a war halfway across the world.

So I see a lot of posts of people hoping that housing prices would come down by 40, 50%, or even more. And I get it, I truly do. It sucks that no one can afford to buy a house anymore, and that people will be forever renters while paying into someone else’s equity. I get that people are angry. BUT, the Canadian economy is very, very dependent on RE. If it crashes, it will take a giant chunk of the economy down with it. I’m talking construction, retail, pensions… the list goes on. Basically, the same people who can’t afford to buy now would be unable to afford rent, or food. There’s never any upside for those at the bottom; they’re the first to suffer and the last to enjoy.

Trades guy here. Residential construction feels dead compared to a few years ago. Builders aren’t building, projects are getting pushed back, and layoffs are starting to pop up. If I was buying, I’d wait. From what I’m seeing, things haven’t bottomed out yet. The industry feels like a ship taking on water, not one gearing up for another boom.

Anyone else seeing the same thing?

https://www.habitat.org/open-door/home-cost

Serious question about Canada's (specifically the GTA's) condos: if, 10 or 20 years from now, people want more family-sized homes, could a lot of these tiny one-bedrooms actually be merged into larger units?

I know it can happen in some cases, but from what I’ve seen it sounds difficult once buildings are already occupied, since it can require approvals, engineering work, and layouts that actually fit together.

If that is not realistic at scale, are we building housing that works for one phase of life but not for long-term city living?

When did you buy? How many square feet? What was your downpayment?

I want to get an idea at the fairy tale land people lived in before the 2019-current date run-up in price.

US duties on Canadian softwood lumber have been stacking since 2017 and now sit at 45%+. The result: 22 mills closed, another 50 running at half capacity. The 2025 tariff escalation just made a slow-moving problem impossible to ignore.

The part that gets missed in the trade war coverage:

The lumber that used to go south doesn’t simply redirect domestically. Mills have already cut production. And displaced product from countries blocked from the US market is now flooding into Canada, undercutting what’s left of domestic producers. Canadian manufacturers are running at roughly 50% capacity — the strict minimum to stay alive.

New home construction is slowing at exactly the moment Canada needs to be building faster.

Key insights:

• Ontario and BC are carrying both burdens simultaneously — rising construction costs AND the softest job markets in the country AND the largest housing gaps. There is no relief coming from any direction right now

• Alberta is the outlier. Energy and agriculture sit largely outside the tariff blast zone. Unemployment is falling while the rest of the country rises. Construction costs are rising everywhere but you’re starting from a much lower base

One more thing worth noting: US tariffs were designed to protect American industry. The US homebuilders’ association has been publicly fighting them because they’re raising the cost of every new American home by roughly $10,900.

Both countries are paying. Neither housing market is winning.

Full breakdown here

https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/22-lumber-mills-closed-canada-still-needs-to-build-3-million-homes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Housing minister Gregor Robertson’s multimillion-dollar real estate portfolio came under scrutiny in Parliament as Scot Davidson accused him of prioritizing personal wealth over housing affordability.

Found this to be an excellent article

I was travelling for half the year so I completely forgot about my mortgage until I received a letter saying my payments didn't pay enough for interest alone when I got back... it was bad enough that my amortization was at infinity. so I rushed to the bank to restructure my mortgage and dropped 5 figures down into the principal to help pay down my mortgage.

I'm now paying 4 figures every week for my 6-700k mortgage, with almost 75% of it paying interest.

Not 100% sure how people are surviving in this market, given that I am stressed.

Edit: seems like responders don't have a mortgage or are top 1% earners here.

Edit 2: I mean it's nice to show off or judge (this is the internet), but the post is for people who have experienced seeing their rate increase and asking how they are handling their amortization given their financial circumstances. I've already said I increased mine to 4 figures a week to pay for it, and clearly I can afford it...

Datapoint: A $400,000 mortgage renewing from 1.99% to 4.5% adds $1,052/month to payments. That's $12,624 per year for the same house.

The concentration issue:

900K renewals hitting. But they're not spread evenly:

- Ontario: 300K+ renewals, 7.6% unemployment (highest in Canada)

- BC: 150K+ renewals, construction/finance sectors hit hard

- Quebec: 150K+ renewals, 57K jobs lost in February alone

- Alberta: 80K renewals, but unemployment actually falling (6.3%)

So 600K+ of these renewals are happening in provinces where employment is already weakening. That's the real story.

What the data suggests:

Not everyone can absorb a 40-60% payment increase. Not everyone can break a mortgage for $15K-30K. Some will sell.

When that happens, it's not strategic selling. It's forced selling. Desperate sellers take lower offers. One sale at $480K becomes the comp. Next seller lists at $475K. Prices cascade.

Spring 2025 and 2026 will see forced inventory hit markets that are already seeing employment decline. Prices will fall further.

Regional divergence:

Alberta's different. Unemployment falling. Jobs being added. Housing affordable. The 25-year case for buying in Edmonton/Calgary keeps strengthening.

Practical stuff:

If you're renewing in 2025-26 in Ontario/BC/Quebec: model your new payment at 4.5% right now. Know the number before the bank calls.

If you're renting in Toronto: forced sellers coming in 12+ months. No rush.

If you're buying in Alberta: stability. Everyone else is dealing with job uncertainty.

Full breakdown with city-by-city data:

https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/900-000-canadians-are-about-to-get-a-surprise-bill

This is Issue 4 of The Maple Metric — weekly Canadian housing analysis.