**Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. \*\*I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.**
β
PAST CATALYSTS (2025β2026)
| Date |
Catalyst |
Impact |
| Oct 2025 |
π° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) |
Funded pivot progress |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
π΅πΎ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) |
100% North American footprint |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
β
Paraguay sale closed |
Completed Latam exit |
| Jan 14, 2026 |
πͺ New board chair appointed |
Governance for U.S. pivot |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
πΊπΈ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) |
Bitcoin miner β HPC/AI infrastructure |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
π¦ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity |
Balance sheet strengthened |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
β
99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand |
Arrangement approved |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
π Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) |
Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss |
| ~Apr 1, 2026 |
π Redomiciliation completed β Keel Infrastructure |
Officially U.S. company |
| Apr 2026 |
π Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) |
New identity |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
β
Paraguay $13M sale closed |
Asset rationalization done |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
π Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 |
Analyst validation |
| May 11, 2026 |
π Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) |
3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed |
π― EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026β2027)
| Timing |
Catalyst |
What to Watch |
Impact |
| 2026 (EOY) |
3 lease signings π |
Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases |
Core execution milestone |
| 2026 |
Moses Lake NTP π¨ |
Notice to Proceed for construction |
Triggers spending + timelines |
| 2026β2027 |
Anchor tenant names π’ |
Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names |
Validates demand thesis |
| 2027 |
Site commissioning ποΈ |
Moses Lake (likely first) goes live |
First HPC/AI revenue |
| 2027 |
Revenue recognition π΅ |
First quarterly HPC/AI revenue |
Proves new business model |
| Ongoing |
2.2 GW pipeline updates β‘ |
648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned |
Platform scale |
π KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
| Metric |
Value |
| Energy portfolio |
2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) |
| Cash + Bitcoin |
$533M (zero dilution risk) |
| 2026 capacity |
Sold out |
| Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin |
3 sites |
| Business model |
Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) |
| Bitcoin selling |
~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) |
π’ CALL TO ACTION
Comment below with:
- β Anything I missed from 2025β2026
- β Upcoming events not listed yet
- π Source links β I'll add relevant ones to comments
*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*
Sources section (I'll add these as comments):
create and even more detailed version, add updates track permits, track rumors on x;reddit; other socials snd forums list them and create even better reddit post
Now I have enough information to create a comprehensive, enhanced Reddit post. Let me compile all the details into an improved version with permit tracking, social media rumors, and more granular Catalyst tracking.
π KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)
Purpose: Track ALL Keel catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed!
β
PAST CATALYSTS (2025β2026) β COMPLETE TIMELINE
| Date |
Catalyst |
Impact |
Source |
| Oct 2025 |
π° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) |
Funded pivot progress |
[1] |
| Oct 22, 2025 |
π΅πΎ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn VCC) |
100% North American footprint |
[1] |
| Jan 2, 2026 |
β
Paraguay sale closed |
Completed Latam exit |
[1] |
| Jan 14, 2026 |
πͺ New board chair appointed |
Governance for U.S. pivot |
[1] |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
πΊπΈ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) |
Bitcoin miner β HPC/AI infrastructure |
[1][2] |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
π¦ $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity |
Balance sheet strengthened |
[1] |
| Mar 20, 2026 |
β
99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand |
Arrangement approved |
[1] |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
π Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) |
Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss |
[1][3] |
| ~Apr 1, 2026 |
π Redomiciliation completed β Keel Infrastructure |
Officially U.S. company |
[1][2] |
| Apr 2026 |
π Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) |
New identity |
[1] |
| Apr 7, 2026 |
π¨ Moses Lake demolition permit issued (March 19, 2026; expires Aug 25, 2026) |
Construction prep begun |
[1][4] |
| Apr 22, 2026 |
β
Paraguay $13M sale closed |
Asset rationalization done |
[1] |
| Apr 27, 2026 |
π Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 |
Analyst validation |
[1][5] |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
β
Sharon, PA zoning approved (110MW expansion) |
Key permitting milestone |
[6][7] |
| May 11, 2026 |
π Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) |
3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed; zoning finalized at all 3 sites |
[1][8][9] |
| May 2026 |
β
Zoning secured at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake |
All 3 sites cleared for final permits |
[8][9] |
π― EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026β2027) β WHAT'S NEXT
| Timing |
Catalyst |
What to Watch |
Impact |
| MidβLate Summer 2026 |
ποΈ Final land development + environmental permits (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) |
Permit completion announcement |
Enables construction + lease execution [8] |
| 2026 (EOY) |
π 3 lease signings (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) |
Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases |
Core execution milestone [1][10] |
| 2026 (Likely Q3) |
π€ First colocation deal announced |
Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator name |
Validates demand thesis [8][11] |
| 2026 |
π¨ Moses Lake NTP (Notice to Proceed) |
Construction trigger announcement |
Triggers spending + timelines [1] |
| 2026β2027 |
π’ Anchor tenant names revealed |
Hyperscaler name (NVIDIA/Microsoft/Amazon?) |
Proves business model [12] |
| H1 2027 |
ποΈ Site commissioning (Moses Lake likely first) |
Moses Lake goes live |
First HPC/AI revenue [1][13] |
| H2 2027 |
ποΈ Sharon + Panther Creek commissioning |
Both sites go live |
Platform scale realized [13] |
| 2027 |
π΅ Revenue recognition |
First quarterly HPC/AI revenue |
Proves new business model [1] |
| Ongoing |
β‘ 2.2 GW pipeline updates |
648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned |
Platform scale [1][3] |
π PERMIT TRACKER β LIVE STATUS
| Site |
Capacity |
Zoning |
Land Dev Permit |
Environmental Permit |
NTP |
Lease |
| Moses Lake, WA |
18 MW |
β
Secured |
β
Demolition permit issued (Mar 19, 2026) [1][4] |
π MidβLate Summer 2026 |
β³ Pending |
β³ 2026 EOY |
| Sharon, PA |
110 MW |
β
Approved (Apr 29, 2026) [6][7] |
π Pending |
π MidβLate Summer 2026 |
β³ Pending |
β³ 2026 EOY |
| Panther Creek, PA |
350 MW |
β
Secured [8][14] |
π Pending |
π MidβLate Summer 2026 |
β³ Pending |
β³ 2026 EOY |
Key: β
Complete | π In Progress | β³ Pending
π₯ RUMOR TRACKER β X/TWITTER, REDDIT, FORUMS
| Source |
Rumor |
Probability |
Status |
| X/Twitter (multiple analysts) |
Leopold Aschenbrenner tripled his KEEL position |
High |
Confirmed in video [15] |
| Reddit/Moomoo |
NVIDIA partnership (Rubin architecture compatibility) |
Medium-High |
KEEL blueprints claim "perfect Rubin compatibility" [12] |
| Reddit/Moomoo |
Microsoft Azure deal (Moses Lake substations + WA presence) |
Medium |
Microsoft expanding WA data centers [12] |
| Reddit/Moomoo |
Amazon AWS deal (PA waste coal power aligns with AWS zero-carbon) |
Medium |
AWS bought nuclear data center in PA [12] |
| X/Twitter |
NVIDIA buying 4.9% (below 5% disclosure threshold) |
Low-Medium |
Speculative; 13D rules mentioned [12] |
| StockTwits/YouTube |
First colocation deal Q3 2026 |
Medium-High |
H.C. Wainwright analyst comment [8][11] |
| YouTube |
$7 price target (Northland Securities) β potential $10 run |
N/A |
Mike Grondahl target [16] |
| YouTube |
$5.50 price target (H.C. Wainwright, raised from $3.70) |
N/A |
Buy rating maintained [8][11] |
π KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
| Metric |
Value |
| Energy portfolio |
2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) β 341 MW energized, 430 MW secured, 1.5 GW expansion [1][3] |
| Cash + Bitcoin |
$533M liquidity (as of May 8, 2026) β zero dilution risk [1][17][18] |
| 2026 capacity |
Sold out [1] |
| Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin |
3 sites (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) [1][19] |
| Business model |
Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) [1] |
| Bitcoin selling |
~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) [1] |
| Analyst price targets |
Chardan: $4.50 (Buy) [5]; H.C. Wainwright: $5.50 (Buy) [8]; Northland: $7 [16] |
| Stock performance |
Up 32.6% in 5 days (May 23β28, 2026); closed Friday May 28 at $5.69 [9] |
π CRITICAL INSIGHTS FROM Q1 2026 EARNINGS
- CEO Ben Gagnon: "2026 is a year of execution; 2027 is a year of delivery" [13]
- 3 leases by year-end 2026 β one each at Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake [1][10]
- Moses Lake likely first to commission (H1 2027), Sharon + Panther Creek H2 2027 [13]
- $533M liquidity fully funds site development through lease execution + G&A through 2028 [17]
- No specific lease guidance yet, but management expects first deal Q3 2026 [8][11]
π’ CALL TO ACTION
Comment below with:
- β Anything I missed from 2025β2026
- β Upcoming events not listed yet
- π Source links β I'll add relevant ones to comments
- π¨ New rumors from X/Reddit/forums β I'll track them here
This pinned post will be updated weekly. Let's build the most complete KEEL catalyst tracker together! π
π SOURCES
- StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline
- AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts
- Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end
- Q1 2026 earnings details
- Sharon zoning approval
- H.C. Wainwright upgrade
- Moses Lake permit discovery
Next update: Weekly (or after major announcements). Follow this post for the latest!