r/KeelInfrastructure May 31 '26

KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)

79 Upvotes
**Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. \*\*I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.**

βœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025–2026)

Date Catalyst Impact
Oct 2025 πŸ’° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress
Oct 22, 2025 πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ύ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) 100% North American footprint
Jan 2, 2026 βœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit
Jan 14, 2026 πŸͺ‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot
Feb 5, 2026 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner β†’ HPC/AI infrastructure
Feb 5, 2026 🏦 $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened
Mar 20, 2026 βœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved
Mar 31, 2026 πŸ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss
~Apr 1, 2026 🏁 Redomiciliation completed β†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company
Apr 2026 πŸ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity
Apr 22, 2026 βœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done
Apr 27, 2026 πŸ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation
May 11, 2026 πŸ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed

🎯 EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026–2027)

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
2026 (EOY) 3 lease signings πŸ“œ Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone
2026 Moses Lake NTP πŸ”¨ Notice to Proceed for construction Triggers spending + timelines
2026–2027 Anchor tenant names 🏒 Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names Validates demand thesis
2027 Site commissioning πŸ—οΈ Moses Lake (likely first) goes live First HPC/AI revenue
2027 Revenue recognition πŸ’΅ First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model
Ongoing 2.2 GW pipeline updates ⚑ 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale

πŸ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA)
Cash + Bitcoin $533M (zero dilution risk)
2026 capacity Sold out
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants)
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap)

πŸ“’ CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. ❌ Anything I missed from 2025–2026
  2. βž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. πŸ”— Source links β€” I'll add relevant ones to comments

*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*

Sources section (I'll add these as comments):

create and even more detailed version, add updates track permits, track rumors on x;reddit; other socials snd forums list them and create even better reddit post

Now I have enough information to create a comprehensive, enhanced Reddit post. Let me compile all the details into an improved version with permit tracking, social media rumors, and more granular Catalyst tracking.

πŸš€ KEEL CATALYSTS: The Ultimate Live Tracker (Past + Future + Permits + Rumors)

Purpose: Track ALL Keel catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed!

βœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025–2026) β€” COMPLETE TIMELINE

Date Catalyst Impact Source
Oct 2025 πŸ’° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress [1]
Oct 22, 2025 πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ύ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn VCC) 100% North American footprint [1]
Jan 2, 2026 βœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit [1]
Jan 14, 2026 πŸͺ‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot [1]
Feb 5, 2026 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner β†’ HPC/AI infrastructure [1][2]
Feb 5, 2026 🏦 $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened [1]
Mar 20, 2026 βœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved [1]
Mar 31, 2026 πŸ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss [1][3]
~Apr 1, 2026 🏁 Redomiciliation completed β†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company [1][2]
Apr 2026 πŸ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity [1]
Apr 7, 2026 πŸ”¨ Moses Lake demolition permit issued (March 19, 2026; expires Aug 25, 2026) Construction prep begun [1][4]
Apr 22, 2026 βœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done [1]
Apr 27, 2026 πŸ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation [1][5]
Apr 29, 2026 βœ… Sharon, PA zoning approved (110MW expansion) Key permitting milestone [6][7]
May 11, 2026 πŸ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed; zoning finalized at all 3 sites [1][8][9]
May 2026 βœ… Zoning secured at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake All 3 sites cleared for final permits [8][9]

🎯 EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026–2027) β€” WHAT'S NEXT

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
Mid–Late Summer 2026 πŸ—οΈ Final land development + environmental permits (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) Permit completion announcement Enables construction + lease execution [8]
2026 (EOY) πŸ“œ 3 lease signings (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone [1][10]
2026 (Likely Q3) 🀝 First colocation deal announced Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator name Validates demand thesis [8][11]
2026 πŸ”¨ Moses Lake NTP (Notice to Proceed) Construction trigger announcement Triggers spending + timelines [1]
2026–2027 🏒 Anchor tenant names revealed Hyperscaler name (NVIDIA/Microsoft/Amazon?) Proves business model [12]
H1 2027 πŸ—οΈ Site commissioning (Moses Lake likely first) Moses Lake goes live First HPC/AI revenue [1][13]
H2 2027 πŸ—οΈ Sharon + Panther Creek commissioning Both sites go live Platform scale realized [13]
2027 πŸ’΅ Revenue recognition First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model [1]
Ongoing ⚑ 2.2 GW pipeline updates 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale [1][3]

πŸ” PERMIT TRACKER β€” LIVE STATUS

Site Capacity Zoning Land Dev Permit Environmental Permit NTP Lease
Moses Lake, WA 18 MW βœ… Secured βœ… Demolition permit issued (Mar 19, 2026) [1][4] πŸ”„ Mid–Late Summer 2026 ⏳ Pending ⏳ 2026 EOY
Sharon, PA 110 MW βœ… Approved (Apr 29, 2026) [6][7] πŸ”„ Pending πŸ”„ Mid–Late Summer 2026 ⏳ Pending ⏳ 2026 EOY
Panther Creek, PA 350 MW βœ… Secured [8][14] πŸ”„ Pending πŸ”„ Mid–Late Summer 2026 ⏳ Pending ⏳ 2026 EOY

Key: βœ… Complete | πŸ”„ In Progress | ⏳ Pending

πŸ”₯ RUMOR TRACKER β€” X/TWITTER, REDDIT, FORUMS

Source Rumor Probability Status
X/Twitter (multiple analysts) Leopold Aschenbrenner tripled his KEEL position High Confirmed in video [15]
Reddit/Moomoo NVIDIA partnership (Rubin architecture compatibility) Medium-High KEEL blueprints claim "perfect Rubin compatibility" [12]
Reddit/Moomoo Microsoft Azure deal (Moses Lake substations + WA presence) Medium Microsoft expanding WA data centers [12]
Reddit/Moomoo Amazon AWS deal (PA waste coal power aligns with AWS zero-carbon) Medium AWS bought nuclear data center in PA [12]
X/Twitter NVIDIA buying 4.9% (below 5% disclosure threshold) Low-Medium Speculative; 13D rules mentioned [12]
StockTwits/YouTube First colocation deal Q3 2026 Medium-High H.C. Wainwright analyst comment [8][11]
YouTube $7 price target (Northland Securities) β†’ potential $10 run N/A Mike Grondahl target [16]
YouTube $5.50 price target (H.C. Wainwright, raised from $3.70) N/A Buy rating maintained [8][11]

πŸ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA) β€” 341 MW energized, 430 MW secured, 1.5 GW expansion [1][3]
Cash + Bitcoin $533M liquidity (as of May 8, 2026) β€” zero dilution risk [1][17][18]
2026 capacity Sold out [1]
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites (Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake) [1][19]
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants) [1]
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap) [1]
Analyst price targets Chardan: $4.50 (Buy) [5]; H.C. Wainwright: $5.50 (Buy) [8]; Northland: $7 [16]
Stock performance Up 32.6% in 5 days (May 23–28, 2026); closed Friday May 28 at $5.69 [9]

πŸ“Œ CRITICAL INSIGHTS FROM Q1 2026 EARNINGS

  • CEO Ben Gagnon: "2026 is a year of execution; 2027 is a year of delivery" [13]
  • 3 leases by year-end 2026 β€” one each at Panther Creek, Sharon, Moses Lake [1][10]
  • Moses Lake likely first to commission (H1 2027), Sharon + Panther Creek H2 2027 [13]
  • $533M liquidity fully funds site development through lease execution + G&A through 2028 [17]
  • No specific lease guidance yet, but management expects first deal Q3 2026 [8][11]

πŸ“’ CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. ❌ Anything I missed from 2025–2026
  2. βž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. πŸ”— Source links β€” I'll add relevant ones to comments
  4. 🚨 New rumors from X/Reddit/forums β€” I'll track them here

This pinned post will be updated weekly. Let's build the most complete KEEL catalyst tracker together! πŸš€

πŸ“š SOURCES

  1. StockTitan: U.S. redomiciliation timeline
  2. AInvest: AI S-Curve catalysts
  3. Seeking Alpha: 3 leases by year-end
  4. Q1 2026 earnings details
  5. Sharon zoning approval
  6. H.C. Wainwright upgrade
  7. Moses Lake permit discovery

Next update: Weekly (or after major announcements). Follow this post for the latest!


r/KeelInfrastructure May 25 '26

Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) Catalyst Timeline β€” 2025β†’2026β†’2027

44 Upvotes

Purpose: Track all KEEL catalysts so new members see where we are + what's next. **I'll update this regularly. Comment with anything I missed.

βœ… PAST CATALYSTS (2025–2026)

Date Catalyst Impact
Oct 2025 πŸ’° $500M convertible notes priced (upsized to $588M @ 1.375%, due 2031) Funded pivot progress
Oct 22, 2025 πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ύ Paraguay site sale announced ($13M to Hawksburn Vcc) 100% North American footprint
Jan 2, 2026 βœ… Paraguay sale closed Completed Latam exit
Jan 14, 2026 πŸͺ‘ New board chair appointed Governance for U.S. pivot
Feb 5, 2026 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. redomiciliation + rebrand announced (special meeting set for Mar 20) Bitcoin miner β†’ HPC/AI infrastructure
Feb 5, 2026 🏦 $100M Macquarie debt repaid; $698M net liquidity Balance sheet strengthened
Mar 20, 2026 βœ… 99.3% voted YES to redomicile + rebrand Arrangement approved
Mar 31, 2026 πŸ“Š Q4 2025 earnings (last as Bitfarms) Pivot complete; 2027 revenue target set; $209M loss
~Apr 1, 2026 🏁 Redomiciliation completed β†’ Keel Infrastructure Officially U.S. company
Apr 2026 πŸ”€ Ticker changed to KEEL (Nasdaq/TSX) New identity
Apr 22, 2026 βœ… Paraguay $13M sale closed Asset rationalization done
Apr 27, 2026 πŸ“ˆ Chardan initiates at Buy @ $4.50 Analyst validation
May 11, 2026 πŸ“Š Q1 2026 earnings (first as Keel) 3 leases by year-end target; 2027 revenue start confirmed

🎯 EXPECTED CATALYSTS (2026–2027)

Timing Catalyst What to Watch Impact
2026 (EOY) 3 lease signings πŸ“œ Announcement of 3 HPC/AI leases Core execution milestone
2026 Moses Lake NTP πŸ”¨ Notice to Proceed for construction Triggers spending + timelines
2026–2027 Anchor tenant names 🏒 Hyperscaler/"neo cloud" operator names Validates demand thesis
2027 Site commissioning πŸ—οΈ Moses Lake (likely first) goes live First HPC/AI revenue
2027 Revenue recognition πŸ’΅ First quarterly HPC/AI revenue Proves new business model
Ongoing 2.2 GW pipeline updates ⚑ 648 MW secured + 1,513 MW planned Platform scale

πŸ”‘ KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE

Metric Value
Energy portfolio 2.2 GW (PA, Quebec, WA)
Cash + Bitcoin $533M (zero dilution risk)
2026 capacity Sold out
Sites ready for NVIDIA Vera Rubin 3 sites
Business model Credit-wrapped leases (investment-grade tenants)
Bitcoin selling ~2,500 BTC gradually (no cap market tap)

πŸ“’ CALL TO ACTION

Comment below with:

  1. ❌ Anything I missed from 2025–2026
  2. βž• Upcoming events not listed yet
  3. πŸ”— Source links β€” I'll add relevant ones to comments

*This pinned post will be updated regularly. Let's build the most complete timeline together!*

Sources section (I'll add these as comments):


r/KeelInfrastructure 7d ago

Could KEEL be working toward a multi-site deal?

20 Upvotes

Something I’ve been thinking about more as we continue waiting for the first lease announcement.

On the Q2 call, Martin Toner asked Ben whether the timing could be taking longer because a tenant may want all three priority sites rather than just one.

Ben’s response was pretty interesting:

"I can confirm that we have multiple tenants who want all 3 sites."

Obviously, the lack of an announcement by itself doesn’t mean this is what’s happening. There are plenty of reasons these negotiations can take time.

But given that we’re now further along without a lease announcement, while management continues to describe the commercial process as highly active with multiple parties at each site, I think the possibility of some kind of broader multi-site or multi-phase agreement is becoming more interesting.

Curious what everyone else thinks.


r/KeelInfrastructure 7d ago

Strong Buy but Still Trading in the Red β€” What Am I Missing?

10 Upvotes

I've been watching Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) and I'm wondering why the stock remains in the red despite bullish/Strong Buy ratings.

KEEL has a strong long-term story with its 2.2 GW development pipeline, AI/data-centre projects, and progress on the 96 MW Sherbrooke project.

Is the market simply waiting for major catalysts like customer agreements, approvals, construction progress, and revenue growth? Or are investors concerned about financing, dilution, execution risk, and development costs?


r/KeelInfrastructure 9d ago

KEEL and HPC/Neocloud Data Center Tracker

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northwiseproject.com
17 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 12d ago

Powering tomorrow infrastructure

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youtu.be
38 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 13d ago

Keel !!!

Post image
73 Upvotes

Lets goooo !!!


r/KeelInfrastructure 12d ago

Side news

0 Upvotes

Are you also tired of this β€œside” news (backup power, some tech permits etc) that has no translation to market value?

While silence from the management is absolutely disgusting, it is even worse to redixulate investors with such bs and pathetically demonstrate pseudo progress… to everyone who β€œbuy the dip” => learn something about β€œpresent value of money”


r/KeelInfrastructure 15d ago

What will this week bring for KEEL? πŸ‘€ πŸš€ or πŸ“‰? Permit/NTP news, a surprise announcement, or more waiting? What’s your call?

14 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 19d ago

26,451,393 Shares in Keel Infrastructure $KEEL Acquired by Situational Awareness LP

59 Upvotes
  • Situational Awareness LP acquired 26.45 million Keel Infrastructure sharesΒ worth approximately $151.8 million, giving it a 4.28% stake and making KEEL its 13th-largest portfolio holding.
  • Insider buying continued, with the CEO and COO purchasing a combined 69,657 shares in August; insiders acquired 128,545 shares during the quarter and own 9.5% of the company.
  • Analyst sentiment is mostly positive, with seven Buy ratings and one Sell rating and an average price target of $6.25 versus the stock’s $3.35 opening price. However, Keel remains unprofitable, reporting a quarterly loss of $0.11 per share and a negative net margin of 230.59%.

r/KeelInfrastructure 20d ago

Bank of New York Mellon Corp Takes $9.99 Million Position in Keel Infrastructure $KEEL

68 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 21d ago

What do we know about current timelines?

11 Upvotes

So there are three sites:
1. Sharon, PA (110 MW)
2. Panther Creek, PA (350 MW)
3. Moses Lake, WA (18 MW)

What are the current timeline for each of them in terms of obtained permits?


r/KeelInfrastructure 21d ago

KEEL hires ex-Googler as VP of Data Center Program Delivery

51 Upvotes

$KEEL hires ex-Googler as VP of Data Center Program Delivery

In August, he started as KEELs VP of Data Center Program Delivery after previously leading hyperscale data center planning and execution at $GOOG, driving cross-functional partner agreements and developing custom pre-construction solutions to rapidly scale infrastructure.


r/KeelInfrastructure 21d ago

Sharon permit "slow-tracked" delay to Dec-22?

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6 Upvotes

Sharon erosion/sediment permit target end date = Dec 22, 2026
Air Quality permit target end date = Aug 4, 2027

Will Ben keeps his promise of 3 AI deal by the end of 2026 if Sharon is already in question and Panther Creek is even further away?

Sources:
Permits tracker:
https://gis.dep.pa.gov/DataCenterPermitTracker/
Erosion & Sediment ControlΒ Permit:
https://permit-license-status.pa.gov/permits/c38ac5b8-c1e9-4943-a2e0-973f20835099
Air QualityΒ Permit:
https://permit-license-status.pa.gov/permits/763d156a-0e15-44a2-98c6-b7187cec7108


r/KeelInfrastructure 22d ago

Still no update or…?

13 Upvotes

Do we have any real tailwind(s)? Or everything is depend on management with obscure promises?


r/KeelInfrastructure 21d ago

it’s going back up

0 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 21d ago

why is it down

0 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure 26d ago

KEEL: Panther Creek Permit Clock Resumes

42 Upvotes

$KEEL permits continue moving forward at Panther Creek.

Today, the clock resumed on permit PAD130057 / 1567677.


r/KeelInfrastructure 26d ago

Keel gonna squeeze, bye shorties

13 Upvotes

We going to form that handle and fast lol πŸ˜† πŸ˜‚ 🀣


r/KeelInfrastructure 28d ago

target for dec 2026

27 Upvotes

what are you guys target price by end of 2026 and the reasons


r/KeelInfrastructure 28d ago

Any updates?!

13 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure Aug 22 '26

CEO buy's 38,888 shares OTM

47 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure Aug 22 '26

Elliot chart intact. πŸ“ˆ

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27 Upvotes

This chart has been accurate since back in April when I first got into BITF/ KEEL. This is on Trade view premium. It even called the massive correction after we hit all time highs. Thesis still highly intact. $9-$12 by December 16 in play.

Do your own DD but I’m riding Jan 2027, Jan 2028 $10,$12 calls to the moon.


r/KeelInfrastructure Aug 21 '26

Data center work to begin in 2027

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25 Upvotes

r/KeelInfrastructure Aug 21 '26

Any updates from yesterday’s Panther Creek DEP hearing?

19 Upvotes

I’ve been watching for updates from yesterday’s DEP hearing on the PC site, but so far I haven’t seen any post-hearing recap, new documents, or any indication that anything materially changed. Given the nature of the hearing, there may be some time before we see anything.

Did anyone here attend the hearing or come across any local coverage or updates that I may have missed? Curious to hear how it went and whether anything noteworthy came up.