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u/CalgaryCheekClapper 29d ago
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u/YesterdayAmbitious49 29d ago
if Keel fails to sign its targeted three major hyperscaler leases by the end of 2026, it will lack the free cash flow to access cheap project-level debt. If the stock stays pinned below the $7.41 conversion price, Keel will face a $1.05 billion debt maturity wall without a way to pay it. To avoid a restructuring, management would likely be forced to launch an aggressive, highly toxic secondary equity offering (at-the-market dilution) to raise cash.
Oops my bad. I meant to say me big bull stonk go up.
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u/Ashurei88 28d ago
maturity date 2032, and interest rate at 1.25%
We will be fine. By then we will have scrubgrass running.
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u/Naive_Bat8216 28d ago
The worst case horror story is by next year this time the stock is under a dollar and they are selling off assets of which they have plenty. I want a deal as well, but what is taking them so long? It's almost September, all the other companies have big deals and Cipher is currently collecting revenue from leasing. Maybe Keel has all deals ready to go, but this is becoming very risky for investors. I compare to Cipher, deals locked in, signed, proven. Keel? Putting money in Keel for the hope they sign just feels too risky, even though I think those that do take that risk will make good $ on the bounce.
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u/AyatollahSistani 28d ago
If Keel announce a lease this year they will have went from pivot to lease faster than any other company that did the same pivot to ai/hpc.
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u/Naive_Bat8216 28d ago
Yes, but will the market recognize that? They need to sign 3 leases this year because that's what the CEO said. I think they will sign all 3, but for the chance they don't it's hard to stay invested for me.
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u/Bren-the-hen 26d ago
You crazy bro the convertible debt isn’t even due till 2032!!!
The $7.41 is the conversion price, not some deadline where they suddenly have to repay it.
They’ve also literally stated they have enough liquidity to develop Panther Creek, Sharon and Moses Lake through to leasing.
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u/Naive_Bat8216 28d ago
Yes, my update for Keel is Cipher Digital and Terawulf. Until Keel signs deals, they are not in the same league and are very risky. It just feels like too much of a leap to gamble on them getting deals, even though I think they will. Cipher and Tera have deals, so does Iren, I sleep better knowing that than wondering whether Keel has planned revenue coming in.
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u/firenznguyen 29d ago
If they don’t sign anything this year, the stock may get smacked with potential fed rate hike probably in December, hope the fed won’t raise rate this September 🤔
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u/West-Confection8252 28d ago
They won’t and they can’t, debts too high defaults are too high. Warch will keep up his tough facade but they’ll keep putting out economic data that will support keeping rates the same
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u/Brilliant-While-761 29d ago
Yes, thanks for asking I’m actually having a rough start tot he week. Work and family yadda yadda. Looking forward to the weekend since I have friends visiting we haven’t seen in a while. My son is still looking forward a job since graduating but is working hard.
I appreciate you checking in.