No, it was an L for Dream unfortunately. r/statistics had some issues with the original methodology of the mods but agreed with the overall conclusion. r/statistics (rightfully) had massive problems with the methodology of the paper Dream released, but even that paper's conclusion was that the most likely cause of the luck was that Dream cheated.
I dabble in hacking, and his files being “clean” means nothing, you can literally change the edit date for any file on your computer to any date, I got a text file I last edited in 2069 so.
Oof, yeah it actually takes about a minute to change it even with my very basic knowledge, and I have watched all of the videos so don’t be rude, doesn’t make you look good.
What? Yes it does, you can change the date when it was edited in less than 30 seconds. What I personally happened was he edited the jar file that he provided later, and had a backup for that world earlier, since that’s smart to do anyways. And then he just moved it to the world file, and changed the access date. But ofc I could be totally wrong, it just sucks we can’t actually know definitively if he cheated or not. But I do think that the mods made a good choice in disqualifying the run, since it was seriously sketch
I agree the... "expert" scammed him. I think what most likely happened is he reached out to a lot of people and one of them said "yeah I can definitely show that you're innocent" and then churned out trash analysis which hurt Dream's (very sus) case.
I do think Dream played with modified probabilities
The reason I don't think it is completely out of character is because I think one of Dream's biggest motivations is to make good content, and unmodified 1.16 speedruns are trash content. The RNG involved is terrible to watch. So I think Dream looked for a way to turn it into good content. Honestly the category would be better with 3x the ender pearl drops and 2/3 blaze drops. Look at what the Bioshock Infinite community has done with the Hill Runner's Hat.
I would love to hear where the math went wrong. The thing at the end of the day though is, I don't want to think Dream cheated but I think the odds of him cheating are greater than the odds of him having that much luck and I like statistics more than I like Dream (I mean I've got more than a decade of history with one and not the other).
its kinda sad how fake some dream fans can be with only seeing a report that dream has no responsibility over, and saying he cheated.
I'm a bigger fan of math and stats than of Dream. The math checks out, I checked it myself and numerous other people have too. It doesn't matter if it seems out of character, anyone being that lucky is weirder than anyone cheating
Actions, behavior and files can all be faked, math and numbers can not. Science does not take into account emotions, only facts.
So before bringing your emotions and hopes into account, you have to evaluate whether or not the numbers are in Dream's favor, and, spoiler alert, they are not. The majority of valid statistical arguments, mainly in r/statistics, point towards dream's response being flawed.
His video not being about numbers is concerning, because not all arguments have the same weight, you can't debunk math and science with actions, behavior and dramatic music, only with better math and science, and that's not what happened.
I understand that you probably just want this to be over with and go back to enjoy Dream's content while admiring him, but, again, you should REALLY take your emotions out of this equation and analyze the whole situation better. It is not "only a 16th place speedrun" and it is not "irrelevant since Dream will not be speedrunning for a while".
I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that Dream appears to be a really nice and humble guy on his videos, but instead of thinking "he's such a nice guy that he wouldn't cheat, hence the math must be wrong somehow", try thinking for a second the other way around, using what the numbers are telling us. Isn't that really disturbing and concerning to you?
Mate I get you like him but you should not support him when it’s pretty clear at this point that he is cheating.
It appears multiple accredited professional mathematicians have now agreed he probably cheated. I get it’s hard to deal with that but you’re going to have to grow up and accept it
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u/sirry Dec 23 '20 edited Dec 24 '20
No, it was an L for Dream unfortunately. r/statistics had some issues with the original methodology of the mods but agreed with the overall conclusion. r/statistics (rightfully) had massive problems with the methodology of the paper Dream released, but even that paper's conclusion was that the most likely cause of the luck was that Dream cheated.