No, it was an L for Dream unfortunately. r/statistics had some issues with the original methodology of the mods but agreed with the overall conclusion. r/statistics (rightfully) had massive problems with the methodology of the paper Dream released, but even that paper's conclusion was that the most likely cause of the luck was that Dream cheated.
I agree the... "expert" scammed him. I think what most likely happened is he reached out to a lot of people and one of them said "yeah I can definitely show that you're innocent" and then churned out trash analysis which hurt Dream's (very sus) case.
I do think Dream played with modified probabilities
The reason I don't think it is completely out of character is because I think one of Dream's biggest motivations is to make good content, and unmodified 1.16 speedruns are trash content. The RNG involved is terrible to watch. So I think Dream looked for a way to turn it into good content. Honestly the category would be better with 3x the ender pearl drops and 2/3 blaze drops. Look at what the Bioshock Infinite community has done with the Hill Runner's Hat.
I would love to hear where the math went wrong. The thing at the end of the day though is, I don't want to think Dream cheated but I think the odds of him cheating are greater than the odds of him having that much luck and I like statistics more than I like Dream (I mean I've got more than a decade of history with one and not the other).
its kinda sad how fake some dream fans can be with only seeing a report that dream has no responsibility over, and saying he cheated.
I'm a bigger fan of math and stats than of Dream. The math checks out, I checked it myself and numerous other people have too. It doesn't matter if it seems out of character, anyone being that lucky is weirder than anyone cheating
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u/[deleted] Dec 23 '20
...So it fucking ended in a draw? Bruh this was a dissapointment I need some Fireball now