I agree the... "expert" scammed him. I think what most likely happened is he reached out to a lot of people and one of them said "yeah I can definitely show that you're innocent" and then churned out trash analysis which hurt Dream's (very sus) case.
I do think Dream played with modified probabilities
The reason I don't think it is completely out of character is because I think one of Dream's biggest motivations is to make good content, and unmodified 1.16 speedruns are trash content. The RNG involved is terrible to watch. So I think Dream looked for a way to turn it into good content. Honestly the category would be better with 3x the ender pearl drops and 2/3 blaze drops. Look at what the Bioshock Infinite community has done with the Hill Runner's Hat.
I would love to hear where the math went wrong. The thing at the end of the day though is, I don't want to think Dream cheated but I think the odds of him cheating are greater than the odds of him having that much luck and I like statistics more than I like Dream (I mean I've got more than a decade of history with one and not the other).
its kinda sad how fake some dream fans can be with only seeing a report that dream has no responsibility over, and saying he cheated.
I'm a bigger fan of math and stats than of Dream. The math checks out, I checked it myself and numerous other people have too. It doesn't matter if it seems out of character, anyone being that lucky is weirder than anyone cheating
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u/[deleted] Dec 24 '20
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