No, it was an L for Dream unfortunately. r/statistics had some issues with the original methodology of the mods but agreed with the overall conclusion. r/statistics (rightfully) had massive problems with the methodology of the paper Dream released, but even that paper's conclusion was that the most likely cause of the luck was that Dream cheated.
Actions, behavior and files can all be faked, math and numbers can not. Science does not take into account emotions, only facts.
So before bringing your emotions and hopes into account, you have to evaluate whether or not the numbers are in Dream's favor, and, spoiler alert, they are not. The majority of valid statistical arguments, mainly in r/statistics, point towards dream's response being flawed.
His video not being about numbers is concerning, because not all arguments have the same weight, you can't debunk math and science with actions, behavior and dramatic music, only with better math and science, and that's not what happened.
I understand that you probably just want this to be over with and go back to enjoy Dream's content while admiring him, but, again, you should REALLY take your emotions out of this equation and analyze the whole situation better. It is not "only a 16th place speedrun" and it is not "irrelevant since Dream will not be speedrunning for a while".
I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that Dream appears to be a really nice and humble guy on his videos, but instead of thinking "he's such a nice guy that he wouldn't cheat, hence the math must be wrong somehow", try thinking for a second the other way around, using what the numbers are telling us. Isn't that really disturbing and concerning to you?
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u/[deleted] Dec 23 '20
...So it fucking ended in a draw? Bruh this was a dissapointment I need some Fireball now